ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

The convection is deeping within the eyewall. Probably close to being able to fully transport the winds to surface efficiently. I wouldn't be completely shocked if sab or tafb came back within the next 12 hours with a 4.0t.

[TheEuropean]

Up to (only) 60%, for what do they wait?

North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
near a low pressure system centered a few hundred miles
west-northwest of the Azores. Environmental conditions could allow
for additional development today and tonight, and the system could
become a short-lived subtropical or tropical storm while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by late this weekend.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
For more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024

...SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 34.4W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[Pasmorade]

How much time does it have to intensify?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1852704908476080154

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1852683386801848815

[MarioProtVI]

Up to 55 kt now thanks to ASCAT.

[Sciencerocks]

[Travorum]

SAR pass from 0822z, the maximum winds are close to the core. The Vmax should be treated with a bit of caution given the marginal SSTs, winds may not be mixing down that efficiently. Still, this is solid evidence for the 55kts NHC has it at if not a bit higher.

Platform: SENTINEL-1A
Acquisition Date: 2024-11-02 08:22:07 UTC
Storm Name: AL172024 / PATTY
Storm ID: AL17
Storm Center Longitude: -34.611
Storm Center Latitude: 40.527
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 39.856
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 26.44
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 67.81
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 54.50
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 35.66
RMax (nmi): 2.00 - 78.00

[StormWeather]

We haven’t used Patty since 2012. With the WCAR system chances rising, we could see Rafael soon as well.

[TheAustinMan]

Patty has actually gained in organization some over the course of the day, with a more robust area of central convection. It's passing close to the Azores island of Ilha do Pico and could pass near Ponta Delgada, the capital and largest city in the Azores, later tonight. The radar site in Terceira unfortunately is not producing data (at least from what I've been able to find), though the pressure in Horta has dropped to 993 mb (they appear to be outside the TS-force region). As modeled, Patty's thermodynamic structure still appears subtropical, as does its surrounding trough context, but convectively, Patty may pass as a tropical storm. That's all pretty subjective, though.

Source: Eumetsat View

[Sciencerocks]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This is going to be a historic storm for the Azores. With their mountains the surface wind speed less important, plus all the flooding.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

I don't get why this is called subtropical? Looks pretty tropical to me. 1. Tight llc, 2. tight wind field and 3.convection directly or developing near or directly over the LLC. Subtropical would be a system with a broad windfield, etc.

[aaaaaa]

If patty going to Spain she may be a major problem, currently Spain face major flooding already killing 200 people

[Sciencerocks]

Pure Tropical storm Patty continues its journey!!!

[HurricaneBelle]

sheared but she's holding on to her convection

[cycloneye]

Officially, is tropical.

...PATTY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...