ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneRyan]

Is Ida 2009 a good potential analog?

[xironman]

I thought the scuttlebutt from a few days ago was strong ridging would keep this from moving to the Gulf Coast but now I see the first models have it headed that way. What changed?

The CMC, the most hated model ever, has been advertising this for a while. That the will be a gap in the ridge that will allow the storm to go north. I am close to thinking the Pensacola area might work out.

[TomballEd]

The GFS doesn't look hostile for development now, there is an ULAC building over it and the mid level humidity seems reasonable, but all the storms seem W of the trough axis.

The GFS may not be modeling the dry air perfectly, I see arc clouds moving out from where the storms are.

[underthwx]

Perhaps PTC advisories tomorrow or Monday?

[eastcoastFL]

If this season has taught us anything it’s anyone’s guess on track and intensity until this thing gets a closed off circulation. For CONUS it’s probably too soon to say if this will be a problem for anyone at all.

[South Texas Storms]

I think the most likely scenario right now is anything that develops will likely remain generally weak. The two best performing models this year in this part of the basin (ICON and Canadian) are showing this system peaking as a tropical storm. A hurricane can't be ruled out though. Also, wind shear should do a number on this system if it approaches the northern Gulf late next week.

[eastcoastFL]

I think the most likely scenario right now is anything that develops will likely remain generally weak. The two best performing models this year in this part of the basin (ICON and Canadian) are showing this system peaking as a tropical storm. A hurricane can't be ruled out though. Also, wind shear should do a number on this system if it approaches the northern Gulf late next week.

That sounds about right. The Canadian seems to be strongest and it peaks as a strong TS and weakens on approach.

[psyclone]

Everytime I make a bearish post things escalate...where my last post was noting the stubborn 40% development odds not going up...and of course as soon as I said that...odds started increasing. I do think king climo rules the roost now that we're in November. Anything that departs the safety of "base"...in this case the central or western Caribbean...gets wrecked in short order. I can't imagine anything of note threatening the US. It's too late & too cold. Wait is that another downcast...?

[StormWeather]

Everytime I make a bearish post things escalate...where my last post was noting the stubborn 40% development odds not going up...and of course as soon as I said that...odds started increasing. I do think king climo rules the roost now that we're in November. Anything that departs the safety of "base"...in this case the central or western Caribbean...gets wrecked in short order. I can't imagine anything of note threatening the US. It's too late & too cold. Wait is that another downcast...?

Now that you’ve said that we will get Hurricane Rafael.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea remains disorganized at this time.
Gradual development of this system is still expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it
moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[galaxy401]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[HurricaneBelle]

It's too late & too cold. Wait is that another downcast...?

Too cold? For about a week after Milton it was, now it looks and feels more like August in Florida (or at least August with shorter days) complete with showers coming in from the east. This November we're partying like it's 1985.

[GCANE]

In the current GFS run, a large Anti-Cyclone will develop from a Rossby Wave Break when the vort is in the N GoM.
If the system stalls in the N GoM, then there is a chance for significant intensification at that point.

[Stormlover70]

In the current GFS run, a large Anti-Cyclone will develop from a Rossby Wave Break when the vort is in the N GoM.
If the system stalls in the N GoM, then there is a chance for significant intensification at that point.

You think the west coast Is safe?

[GCANE]

In the current GFS run, a large Anti-Cyclone will develop from a Rossby Wave Break when the vort is in the N GoM.
If the system stalls in the N GoM, then there is a chance for significant intensification at that point.

You think the west coast Is safe?

If it stalls, it'll be a loose cannon

[ThunderForce]

Aren't the waters supposed to be cooler close to the Gulf Coast? I would've assumed a stalling storm would end up weakening from it as a result.

[xironman]

Center appears to be under the convection

[Blown Away]

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 03, 2024:

Location: 12.9°N 77.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

It’s seems the NHC is resetting the “x” farther E following the convection.