ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 03, 2024:

Location: 12.9°N 77.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

It’s seems the NHC is resetting the “x” farther E following the convection.

Where was it before? I didn't pay attention to the exact lat. and long.

[Stormlover70]

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 03, 2024:

Location: 12.9°N 77.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

It’s seems the NHC is resetting the “x” farther E following the convection.

I was wondering about that. Seems like Florida will be in the path imo.

[cycloneye]

Best track path until 12z.

[boca]

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 03, 2024:

Location: 12.9°N 77.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

It’s seems the NHC is resetting the “x” farther E following the convection.

How much further east is it now from where it was before?

[wzrgirl1]

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 03, 2024:

Location: 12.9°N 77.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

It’s seems the NHC is resetting the “x” farther E following the convection.

How much further east is it now from where it was before?

Three of us have asked this question and nobody answered us yet.

[xironman]

That is going to be one long flight

[ThunderForce]

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 03, 2024:

Location: 12.9°N 77.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

It’s seems the NHC is resetting the “x” farther E following the convection.

How much further east is it now from where it was before?

Three of us have asked this question and nobody answered us yet.

Unfortunately I don't have the exact coordinates from the previous position and I don't know where to find it, but on the TWO its quite a bit east compared to before.

[boca]

That might change the outcome of the track from EGOM to closer to Florida. The graphic looks like it 2 degrees further east.

[xironman]

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 03, 2024:

Location: 12.9°N 77.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

It’s seems the NHC is resetting the “x” farther E following the convection.

How much further east is it now from where it was before?

Three of us have asked this question and nobody answered us yet.

You can select the previous maps from the history in the tropicaltidbits storm page where the best track (Surface Plot) is https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#97L

[wzrgirl1]

How much further east is it now from where it was before?

Three of us have asked this question and nobody answered us yet.

You can select the previous maps from the history in the tropicaltidbits storm page where the best track (Surface Plot) is https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#97L

Thank you. Upon checking the history of surface plots the low pressure plot is about 1 degree further east from earlier this morning. What is that about 60 nautical miles or so?

[Blown Away]

Invest 97L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 03, 2024:

Location: 12.9°N 77.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

It’s seems the NHC is resetting the “x” farther E following the convection.

How much further east is it now from where it was before?

12.5N/78.5W

[underthwx]

This is an excerpt from NWS Panama City morning forecast discussion, pretty much sums up the situation with 97L.

".LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

We will need to closely watch the tropical disturbance currently
over the Southwest Caribbean Sea. The latest Tropical Weather
Outlook from NHC now forecasts a 90 percent chance of tropical
cyclone development in the next couple of days. There is strong
model consensus for bringing this tropical cyclone northwestward
across western Cuba around Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, and
into the southeast Gulf later Wednesday. Since this time
yesterday, there are unfortunately fewer solutions which simply
carry this tropical cyclone (TC) westward across the southern
Gulf. Instead, there is decent model consensus through about
Wednesday night in carrying the TC northwest into the east-
central Gulf. Thursday onward is now when model consistency
softens.

Part of the consistency issue is that the environment for
sustaining a TC will become more hostile as the TC gets further
and further north into the Gulf. For us, that is the good news.
Deep- layer wind shear gets strong over the northern Gulf, and
sea- surface temperatures are generally under 80 degrees along the
northern Gulf coast now. Model guidance almost unanimously weakens
the TC as it reaches the northern Gulf, becoming lopsided and
sheared in structure. However, there are differences in how
quickly the weakening occurs, and this will actually impact its
track. If weakening happens fast, then the low- level circulation
center would more quickly make a left or westward turn before
reaching our coast as it becomes steered by shallower low-level
easterly flow. If the TC is slower to weaken, then it will be
subject to deeper southerly steering flow for longer and could
make it closer to our coast, or even make landfall late in the
week.

Ultimately, there is a large range of possibilities as we get
beyond Wednesday night. So check back in the next day or two as
the late-week forecast for this TC becomes better resolved. Until
then, it is simply too soon to discuss specific impacts"

I personally did not realize that sea surface temps had lowered much, considering summer ended not long ago, lets hope that 97L will encounter the hostile environment mentioned, and will be a weak system, shoukd it affect the CONUS.

[wzrgirl1]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... 110315.png

[REDHurricane]

Definitely starting to curl up now, should develop into a TD within the next 24 hours

[cycloneye]

Will plane find a TD?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Will plane find a TD?

Well they are at their final altitude, so it wont be long now

[cycloneye]

1 PM EST:

1. Western Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system over the south-central
Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to become a tropical
depression during the next day or two as it moves generally
northward toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. Interests in
those locations should monitor the progress of this system as
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or
tonight. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba during the next few days. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

AL, 97, 2024110318, 01, CARQ, 0, 133N, 773W, 30, 1005, DB, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 55, 6, INVEST, S,

[tropicwatch]

Will plane find a TD?

They might, a ship south of it is reporting west winds.

[TallyTracker]

There seems to be some west winds and inflow. I’m gonna say it’s not quite there yet, but definitely PTC advisories starting at 4 pm. I think we’re about 18 hours until the NHC will designate it a TD.