ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Travorum]

Cuban radar is missing a few frames, but shows the ERC nicely (from Brian McNoldy). It looks like the inner eyewall decayed quite rapidly once the outer one had built up.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Still stronger than last recon pass, at Major strength or just at the cusp. It seems like its going through a EWRC, there's a solid double wind maxima and satellite degradation supports this. This would be good timing for Cubans, it might not have time to clean itself up before landfall.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241106/12a6086ecb8982fec498e317c0d7c00f.jpg

The highest inner core eyewall winds were going to miss downtown Havana to the west anyways but now it looks like that 1500 ft mountain ridge may tighten the core back up again before it gets over the warm gulf heat content.

[WaveBreaking]

EWRC almost complete

[Hurricane2022]

EWRC almost complete

https://i.imgur.com/xQBp2P2.mp4

[Hurricane Mike]

Here is a video update on Rafael
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9OGgjy35B0

[underthwx]

Here is a video update on Rafael
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9OGgjy35B0

Good vid, okay Rafael, may the shear be with you, and you go poof!

[wxman57]

Stupid Cat 3 made me lose the hurricane contest.

I see NHC is discussing extending the track southwest and increasing the intensity from day 5 on. We have it moving inland between Veracruz and Tampico Monday night as a strong TS. Possibly could be a hurricane.

[Hurricane2022]

Stupid Cat 3 made me lose the hurricane contest.

I see NHC is discussing extending the track southwest and increasing the intensity from day 5 on. We have it moving inland between Veracruz and Tampico Monday night as a strong TS. Possibly could be a hurricane.

Do you think Rafael will intensify into a major hurricane again?

[ronjon]

Looks to be moving more N-NW the last several hours. I know the storm is forecast to make a left hook after it enters the GOM but key west might in for some heavy weather tonight with a few more hours of this motion.

[wxman57]

Stupid Cat 3 made me lose the hurricane contest.

I see NHC is discussing extending the track southwest and increasing the intensity from day 5 on. We have it moving inland between Veracruz and Tampico Monday night as a strong TS. Possibly could be a hurricane.

Do you think Rafael will intensify into a major hurricane again?

I NO LONGER CARE!!! Stupid hurricane.

[Hurricane2022]

Well... there you go again, 2024.
I'm thinking this could become a major hurricane, but nothing is certain so far. Any place between Haiti and Louisiana should be starting preparations now.

Well atleast my initial guess wasn't very bad, as we can see i'm sorry for you, Wxman57!

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Where was the hurricane contest? In a specific subforum? Now I'm curious

[underthwx]

Stupid Cat 3 made me lose the hurricane contest.

I see NHC is discussing extending the track southwest and increasing the intensity from day 5 on. We have it moving inland between Veracruz and Tampico Monday night as a strong TS. Possibly could be a hurricane.

Do you think Rafael will intensify into a major hurricane again?

I NO LONGER CARE!!! Stupid hurricane.

Win some, lose some Xman. You are still an epic weather forecaster!

[xironman]

Rafael found the shortest and flat place to cross Cuba

[al78]

Here is a video update on Rafael
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9OGgjy35B0

That is an excellent analysis and he is talking about the possibility of another tropical storm or hurricane next week. It has been a very anomalous season. First third spectacular. Mid third around peak season a damp squib. Final third spectacular. Goodness knows what the ACE would have been to-date if we hadn't had the anomalous northward displacement of the East African wave train and strongly positive NAO heavily suppressing peak-season activity.

[kevin]

Wow, Rafael center seems to be leaving Cuba already as we speak based on the recon pass. I probably just didn't look good at the models, but I didn't expect Rafael's stay over land to be this brief.

[Cyclenall]

Wow, Rafael center seems to be leaving Cuba already as we speak based on the recon pass. I probably just didn't look good at the models, but I didn't expect Rafael's stay over land to be this brief.

Whew I didn't even know it made landfall yet! This one reminds me of Dennis '05 for appearance and track (so far).

[Travorum]

Wow, Rafael center seems to be leaving Cuba already as we speak based on the recon pass. I probably just didn't look good at the models, but I didn't expect Rafael's stay over land to be this brief.

Looking at the 12z and 18z models it seems to be slightly (like 1-2 hours) ahead of models in getting back over water. The concerning thing wrt future intensity is that recon indicates no serious disruption to the circulation: a steep pressure gradient is still present and central pressure is still in the 960s. Furthermore very deep convection with cloud tops in colder than -80C popped up as soon as Raphael emerged back over water. Raphael's structure is in pretty good shape for further strengthening as hurricane models have been suggesting the past few cycles.

[Sciencerocks]