ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Anomalous in Season, Intensity, and Track...

[zzzh]

015230 2330N 08317W 6974 02997 //// +078 //// 148100 106 160 061 05

Rafael is probably at 95kt now.

[aspen]

I’ve never seen such a dramatic contrast between quadrants before. Only 50 kt FL on the SW vs 106 kt FL and 160 kt SFMR on the NE. Also some of the most significant SFMR shoaling I’ve ever seen.

[zzzh]

There are still 2 eyewalls in the NE side.

[zzzh]

Nice upshear rotation there. Shouldn't take long to wrap around all the quadrants.

[longhorn2004]

Looking at the tracks, this thing is suppose to fizzle out in the middle of the Gulf? What shear or front is doing that?

[MarioProtVI]

Yet another anomalous storm to add to this long and destructive season. Rafael may still have a secondary peak ahead especially if it stays more SW.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking at the tracks, this thing is suppose to fizzle out in the middle of the Gulf? What shear or front is doing that?

I haven't followed this storm as much as others, but from what I remember reading, there suppose to be incredible amounts of shear and dry air, that will substantially weaken it, but the thinking now is that it could regenerate somewhat to a high end TS or maybe even low end Hurricane as it heads towards Mexico in the Western Gulf.

[underthwx]

Anomalous in Season, Intensity, and Track...

True that Sanibel!. Good to see you here! I hope all is going well for you. I wish you the best my friend.

[underthwx]

Looking at the tracks, this thing is suppose to fizzle out in the middle of the Gulf? What shear or front is doing that?

I haven't followed this storm as much as others, but from what I remember reading, there suppose to be incredible amounts of shear and dry air, that will substantially weaken it, but the thinking now is that it could regenerate somewhat to a high end TS or maybe even low end Hurricane as it heads towards Mexico in the Western Gulf.

I think this is due to the fact it appears to be taking a more southern track thru the gulf, eventually slowing its forward speed in the coming days, and I think possibly tracking towards NE Mexico? Wxman 57 has Rafaels number I think, I encourage you to scroll backwards and read his thoughts on the cyclone. Rafael is going to be around for awhile, so it appears. As the latest NHC update suggests, even if Rafael stays more to the south, over the warmer waters, the cyclone will be encountering dry air, which should weaken it to a tropical storm. Much uncertainty remains with track and intensity in the long term forecast. That has been the theme with Rafael from the git-go. Have a good night.

[underthwx]

Is it possible for Rafael to somehow eventually get pushed back nort and eastward? Looking at the latest NHC track, at the end of the forecast track, it appears as if the cyclone will be meandering around in, or near the BOC, I am wondering if maybe Rafael will get picked up by a frontal boundary, and be carried away towards the north and east? Is this even a possibility? It seems as tho anything with Rafael is possible.

[Sciencerocks]

[xironman]

Looking at the tracks, this thing is suppose to fizzle out in the middle of the Gulf? What shear or front is doing that?

The worst shear is now. Dry air kills it.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
SHEAR (KT) 25 25 16 10 12 7 11 5 12 8 5 3 7 5 11 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 61 58 54 52 51 46 45 47 44 36 29 24 20 18 18 N/A N/A

[wxman57]

I see two possibilities in the models. The majority of models have Rafael influenced more by the ridge over northern MX to South Texas. The ridge steers it southwest over the weekend. Hurricane models have that scenario, but now weaken it to a depression in the BoC. The other possibility according to the GFS ensembles, is that the ridge over the SE U.S. takes control and steers Rafael north then northeastward by Saturday, moving into the central Gulf Coast by Monday. That's possible, but it would run into a wall of shear and dry air which would leave it a convectionless swirl moving ashore. No wind, rain, or storm surge. Either way, the northern Gulf coast appears to be safe from any significant impact. The main question now is whether Rafael weakens to a depression or remnant low before moving southwest to near Veracruz next Monday. There's a chance it could be a TS down there, though 6Z HAFS A & B weaken it to a depression or remnant low in the BoC now.

[GCANE]

So, looking at GFS run to run, 250mb, 500mb, and 355K PV, not seeing much difference in intensity or position.
Yet, Rafael is all over the place in the GoM.
Models don't know what to do with him.
Its a crap shoot.

[GCANE]

Air looks dry on Sat WV west of Rafael, but I am seeing 3500 CAPE there

[GCANE]

Huge High TPW feed from the EPAC, thru the W Carib, and into Rafael

Low levels are actually very moist

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

Insane.
Seeing 6500 CAPE in the core now

[GCANE]

He's slicing thru that ML Dry Air like a hot knife thru butter

[xironman]

I wonder if we will get a bit of a pop this afternoon as it crosses the loop current and shear drops a bit