ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

Interesting how even in the very short term (+9 hrs) the 06z hurricane models significantly underestimated Rafael (87 kt HWRF, 77 kt HMON, 81 kt HAFS-A, 81 kt HAFS-B) if the NHC indeed goes with 95 kt. Luckily it won't encounter land within the coming 24 hours or so, because it seems to be near-impossible to get a consistent accurate forecast for Rafael.

Seems like the models do poorly early in the season and late in the season

Is the reason for the uncertainty with Rafael based on the timing of troughs, or high pressure ridges?

[GCANE]

Interesting how even in the very short term (+9 hrs) the 06z hurricane models significantly underestimated Rafael (87 kt HWRF, 77 kt HMON, 81 kt HAFS-A, 81 kt HAFS-B) if the NHC indeed goes with 95 kt. Luckily it won't encounter land within the coming 24 hours or so, because it seems to be near-impossible to get a consistent accurate forecast for Rafael.

Seems like the models do poorly early in the season and late in the season

Is the reason for the uncertainty with Rafael based on the timing of troughs, or high pressure ridges?

I remember a number of years ago there was a discussion in the fall why the models failed to accurately forecast intensification.
It was thought by many the models don't properly take into account the cooling of the upper troposphere.

[aspen]

What’s going on with recon? It looks like it’s been hanging around the Louisiana coast for the last hour.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like we have a major hurricane again.

[Jr0d]

Any chance this stalls or loops and heads east?

I just can't believe we are seeing a strong November hurricane in its current location heading west and apparently strengthening....at this point nothing would surprise me.

[HurricaneRyan]

This definitely feels like a Kate 1985 analog now.

[sasha_B]

The eye is clearing out and even getting more symmetrical on the last few frames. Recon's likely to find something much stronger than 90 knots.

[Teban54]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looking even more impressive now than when it was in the Caribbean.

HAFS-A shows Category 4 peak tonight, followed by a gradual spin down.

[xironman]

https://i.postimg.cc/cH5G0SyN/goes16-ir-18-L-202411072007.gif

Stupid remnant low.

[TallyTracker]

The storm is toast if it goes north of 25 N.

Rafael: Hugs 24.8 N and uses the ventilation to strengthen…in the Gulf…in Novemeber…

[aspen]

Almost no intensification since last time despite a far better appearance. Odd.

[sasha_B]

Almost no intensification since last time despite a far better appearance. Odd.

I was about to say the same thing. Satellite estimates are around where they were (Edit: higher than - ADT CI# is now 5.7) when it was at its first peak in the Caribbean, and we've just seen the eye clear out (+ the first eyewall lightning in a little while). Obviously recon measurements supercede indirect estimates, but I wonder what's keeping Rafael's actual intensity down despite the (apparently) improved structure.

[Travorum]

Almost no intensification since last time despite a far better appearance. Odd.

The strongest winds should be in the NW quad according to SAR. It's possible wind speed is just significantly lagging Raphael's appearance and pressure but I'd wait for a full sampling of all quadrants.

[Travorum]

Eyewall is closed up again per the latest VDM:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182024 A. 07/23:49:30Z B. 24.65 deg N 086.61 deg W C. 700 mb 2795 m D. 966 mb E. 150 deg 6 kt F. CLOSED G. C30 H. 80 kt I. 037 deg 13 nm 23:45:30Z J. 130 deg 93 kt K. 042 deg 14 nm 23:45:00Z L. 65 kt M. 225 deg 22 nm 23:56:30Z N. 302 deg 84 kt O. 225 deg 17 nm 23:55:00Z P. 9 C / 3047 m Q. 14 C / 3046 m R. 14 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 2 nm U. AF305 1818A RAFAEL OB 05 MAX FL WIND 93 KT 042 / 14 NM 23:45:00Z

[Sciencerocks]

279
URNT15 KNHC 080035
AF305 1818A RAFAEL HDOB 16 20241108
002530 2338N 08620W 6966 03127 0003 +105 +071 224039 039 027 000 00
002600 2338N 08617W 6966 03129 0007 +106 +067 224039 040 027 001 00
002630 2338N 08614W 6966 03131 0010 +105 +069 226039 039 028 000 00
002700 2337N 08611W 6967 03129 0011 +104 +070 230040 041 024 001 00
002730 2337N 08609W 6967 03133 0017 +100 +072 232039 040 026 000 00
002800 2337N 08606W 6966 03135 0013 +106 +072 225039 040 025 001 00
002830 2337N 08603W 6967 03135 0013 +108 +068 223039 040 025 001 00
002900 2337N 08601W 6965 03142 0026 +100 +068 218038 039 024 001 00
002930 2337N 08558W 6970 03139 0035 +096 +068 214038 039 025 001 00
003000 2336N 08555W 6969 03140 0041 +091 +071 213040 041 024 000 00
003030 2336N 08553W 6967 03144 0035 +095 +078 209040 040 022 001 00
003100 2336N 08551W 6973 03140 0030 +104 +077 207038 039 023 001 00
003130 2336N 08548W 6962 03155 0030 +103 +075 208038 038 021 001 00
003200 2336N 08548W 6962 03155 0029 +105 +070 212039 039 021 000 00
003230 2336N 08543W 6971 03145 0033 +106 +068 211038 039 022 001 00
003300 2336N 08541W 6969 03151 0033 +107 +066 211037 038 021 001 00
003330 2336N 08539W 6965 03155 0022 +115 +062 206034 036 /// /// 03
003400 2339N 08538W 6967 03151 0027 +112 +059 205033 033 /// /// 03
003430 2340N 08540W 6969 03149 0040 +099 +065 202034 034 020 001 03
003500 2341N 08542W 6969 03146 0037 +100 +067 200034 035 022 001 00
$$
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[aspen]

Almost no intensification since last time despite a far better appearance. Odd.

The strongest winds should be in the NW quad according to SAR. It's possible wind speed is just significantly lagging Raphael's appearance and pressure but I'd wait for a full sampling of all quadrants.

Oh right, it’s changing direction so the max wind quad should be shifting.

Eye looks to be warming in recent frames. Not sure if its just a brief hiccup or maybe the start of the marginal environment getting to Rafael.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080045
AF305 1818A RAFAEL HDOB 17 20241108
003530 2343N 08544W 6967 03145 0031 +104 +070 201034 034 025 000 00
003600 2344N 08546W 6967 03144 0028 +105 +075 204033 034 027 001 00
003630 2346N 08547W 6975 03135 0025 +107 +072 203034 035 027 001 00
003700 2347N 08549W 6967 03143 0033 +098 +076 199035 036 027 001 00
003730 2349N 08550W 6970 03138 0035 +095 +080 198036 037 027 001 00
003800 2350N 08552W 6963 03142 0030 +096 +084 201037 039 025 002 00
003830 2352N 08553W 6968 03134 0025 +096 +087 198040 041 029 001 00
003900 2353N 08555W 6966 03137 0022 +099 +074 199038 039 029 001 00
003930 2354N 08556W 6969 03131 0022 +098 +076 197038 039 031 001 00
004000 2356N 08558W 6967 03131 0020 +095 +079 196038 038 030 001 00
004030 2357N 08559W 6970 03125 0020 +095 +078 198040 041 031 002 00
004100 2358N 08601W 6969 03126 0017 +096 +075 201041 041 033 001 00
004130 2400N 08602W 6965 03128 0006 +104 +070 203042 043 035 002 00
004200 2401N 08604W 6966 03125 0007 +100 +074 200043 044 036 003 00
004230 2402N 08605W 6967 03117 0004 +097 +080 195042 043 037 002 00
004300 2404N 08607W 6970 03111 0002 +095 +086 195042 043 037 003 00
004330 2405N 08608W 6966 03115 0007 +090 +088 197044 044 037 002 00
004400 2407N 08610W 6970 03108 0001 +093 +088 203046 047 041 001 00
004430 2408N 08611W 6972 03097 9986 +099 +086 203051 053 043 003 00
004500 2409N 08612W 6963 03106 9996 +087 +086 200052 053 044 009 00
$$
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[Sciencerocks]

URNT15 KNHC 080115
AF305 1818A RAFAEL HDOB 20 20241108
010530 2454N 08711W 6967 03031 9889 +108 //// 055079 080 063 002 01
010600 2455N 08712W 6969 03040 9915 +098 //// 053077 079 063 002 01
010630 2456N 08713W 6970 03048 9927 +097 //// 046075 076 058 009 01
010700 2457N 08715W 6961 03065 9902 +124 +098 041072 076 057 009 00
010730 2459N 08716W 6964 03064 9879 +148 +085 039066 069 057 009 00
010800 2500N 08717W 6966 03066 9870 +162 +072 039063 063 056 003 00
010830 2501N 08718W 6968 03068 9897 +142 +074 041067 070 056 003 00
010900 2502N 08720W 6965 03074 9902 +140 +076 043071 074 057 002 00
010930 2503N 08721W 6966 03079 9923 +129 +074 047073 074 055 002 00
011000 2504N 08722W 6961 03091 9929 +129 +081 044074 075 055 002 00
011030 2506N 08723W 6970 03088 9945 +121 +090 045073 074 050 002 00
011100 2507N 08725W 6962 03102 9962 +109 +095 048069 070 043 001 00
011130 2508N 08726W 6970 03096 9983 +096 //// 053069 070 038 003 01
011200 2509N 08727W 6969 03099 9985 +095 //// 056068 070 041 006 01
011230 2511N 08729W 6971 03098 9985 +096 //// 058068 070 042 006 01
011300 2512N 08730W 6963 03111 9987 +100 //// 057067 068 041 006 01
011330 2513N 08731W 6968 03115 9992 +100 //// 055063 065 041 004 01
011400 2514N 08733W 6967 03111 9991 +101 +099 055063 064 041 005 00
011430 2516N 08734W 6958 03129 0000 +097 //// 063062 065 041 006 01
011500 2517N 08735W 6979 03107 0014 +089 //// 064062 064 040 006 01
$$
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