ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fllawyer]

Did I miss why NHC isn’t doing intermediate advisories?

They only issue intermediate advisories when there are active watches or warnings for land areas.

Appreciate the reply! Maybe it’s just so odd that there is/was a major in the GOM and not a single watch or warning…

[underthwx]

Rafael appears as if it's encountering drier air and some shear? Not looking as healthy as this morning?

[wxman57]

Rafael appears as if it's encountering drier air and some shear? Not looking as healthy as this morning?

You are correct. Dry air has wrapped around the southern half, and shear is increasing. I still think it'll weaken to a TS overnight.

[HurricaneBelle]

Convection is dissipating SW-SE of the center now. Dry air and shear are impacting Rafael. It would be nice to see some recon.

You may be the only one here I've ever seen calling for recon to confirm a weakening trend.

[Sciencerocks]

[underthwx]

Rafael appears as if it's encountering drier air and some shear? Not looking as healthy as this morning?

You are correct. Dry air has wrapped around the southern half, and shear is increasing. I still think it'll weaken to a TS overnight.

Yes sir!. I think Rafael is headed on track to hurricane heaven. No shear there!

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Convection is dissipating SW-SE of the center now. Dry air and shear are impacting Rafael. It would be nice to see some recon.

You may be the only one here I've ever seen calling for recon to confirm a weakening trend.

Recon confirms weakening generally when a storm is weakening. In this case, Rafael is weakening. Sometimes they delay indicating a storm is weakening so as to keep the public alerted and watching.

[underthwx]

Convection is dissipating SW-SE of the center now. Dry air and shear are impacting Rafael. It would be nice to see some recon.

You may be the only one here I've ever seen calling for recon to confirm a weakening trend.

Recon confirms weakening generally when a storm is weakening. In this case, Rafael is weakening. Sometimes they delay indicating a storm is weakening so as to keep the public alerted and watching.

Which makes perfect sense. Given tha fact that Rafael is within the confines of the GOM, and sometimes, tropical systems can, and have, and will behave in ways other than predicted! Better safe, than sorry.

[GCANE]

Seems to like the dry air and shear.
Big pick up in convection.

[ChrisH-UK]

Rafael's core is getting exposed.

[Hurricane2022]

Barely a hurricane, recon says

[TallyTracker]

Rafael's core is getting exposed.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7554/sUVhUS.gif [/url]

This looks like mid-level shear. The outflow looks like it is getting undercut.

[Stormlover70]

Good news for.

[wxman57]

Barely a hurricane, recon says

Plane hasn't found any hurricane force wind yet. Max FL wind only 68 kts with SFMR 50-55 kts. Could be a small area of 60kt wind. Only 45-50 kts on the SE to NW pass. Current pressure of 990mb is way up from 965 this morning.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/itY74nQ.gif

Dry air totally obliterated it. Does it have just enough juice left to push the season to 160 ACE, or will we have to wait until Sara forms?

[MarioProtVI]

https://i.imgur.com/itY74nQ.gif

Dry air totally obliterated it. Does it have just enough juice left to push the season to 160 ACE, or will we have to wait until Sara forms?

It’s unraveling fasted then NHC anticipated, so it could very easily dissipate earlier. We’re at 158.1 as of the 4pm advisory, and 10pm should add another .4 or .5, but since it’s weakening fast it’ll add less and less so it is likely we’ll come up short. Likely have to wait for the Caribbean signal to form to take us over the edge.

[wxman57]

NHC still kept it a TS for 48 hours. That may be 24+ hours too generous.

[Sciencerocks]