Texas Fall 2024

[Stratton23]

Im becoming more unimpressed with this so called cool down after thanksgiving, models are in good agreement that the majoriry of the cold air is going to slide east of texas, might have to wait until later in the month for a better shot, that western us ridge is nosing in too much

[Ntxw]

Im becoming more unimpressed with this so called cool down after thanksgiving, models are in good agreement that the majoriry of the cold air is going to slide east of texas, might have to wait until later in the month for a better shot, that western us ridge is nosing in too much

It could be relentless warmth and more ridging, much like what we have been getting, this is a win considering. NW flow is chilly.

2021, 2022, and 2023 we were frequently hitting 70s and 80s to start the month.

[wxman22]

Im becoming more unimpressed with this so called cool down after thanksgiving, models are in good agreement that the majoriry of the cold air is going to slide east of texas, might have to wait until later in the month for a better shot, that western us ridge is nosing in too much

Patience, we’re going through a “stepping down” process. I’m personally happy to have seasonal temperatures. Every airmass is not going to be “Arctic Armageddon” and that’s OK, we have plenty of time for that lol.

[Brent]

Wind chill is 41 here after we hit 77 yesterday

I dunno that's pretty impressive as it is considering until Wednesday our coldest high in 6 months was like 65

Gotta remember it's still so early

[Cpv17]

Im becoming more unimpressed with this so called cool down after thanksgiving, models are in good agreement that the majoriry of the cold air is going to slide east of texas, might have to wait until later in the month for a better shot, that western us ridge is nosing in too much

If that’s the case that means the PNA is too positive.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 yeah it definitely looks like the PNA is too positive for anything more than a glancing blow of cold air

[Cpv17]

I guess wxinfinity is down again. I haven’t been able to access it all day so far.

[Tireman4]

I guess wxinfinity is down again. I haven’t been able to access it all day so far.

It is. I have reported it to Andrew

[Brent]

If it helps even east of here it looks pretty dry right now

Meanwhile Colorado has yet another snowstorm... Breckenridge didn't even melt all the snow from the other day

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wouldn't MJO phases 7-8-1 be best for cold air to come down? It appears we are in phase 3 at the moment and its expected to roll into 5. We need some help in that department.

[Stratton23]

The Euro AIFS has been extremely consistent with hanging the trough more back west, this run it does look like the arctic air is making a bee line for south texas, guess we are gonna find out if its on to something or not

[Brent]

There really hasn't been much change here... Still 2 or 3 windows on the ensembles for some light snow between Friday night and next Wednesday

Maybe the cold isn't that extreme compared to recent arctic outbreaks sure but it's still so early too and it's been so warm. We were probably never gonna be near zero this early anyway

[Ntxw]

Wouldn't MJO phases 7-8-1 be best for cold air to come down? It appears we are in phase 3 at the moment and its expected to roll into 5. We need some help in that department.

MJO might be weakening into COD, which means other factors will run the show. I think for us the 8-1-2 part might be better than 7-8-1. Some regression of a full eastern trough preferred.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Wouldn't MJO phases 7-8-1 be best for cold air to come down? It appears we are in phase 3 at the moment and its expected to roll into 5. We need some help in that department.

MJO might be weakening into COD, which means other factors will run the show. I think for us the 8-1-2 part might be better than 7-8-1. Some regression of a full eastern trough preferred.

I've been saying it for a while that the trough is too far east and retrogression would help I believe. I was just hoping for an early season winter event lol

[Stratton23]

GFS significantly changed at 06z run, colder air further west, colder, and now has precipitation overriding the cold air at hour 174

[Brent]

GFS significantly changed at 06z run, colder air further west, colder, and now has precipitation overriding the cold air at hour 174

It's amazing to me after all the GFS runs for days that that timeframe is still there and that's the best run it's had in days...

[CaptinCrunch]

Arctic Blast Set to Arrive on Thanksgiving; Dangerous Wind Chills, Lake Effect Snows.

A significant arctic outbreak will arrive in the northern Rockies and northern Plains on Thanksgiving into Friday and advance farther south and east through much of the Plains and Midwest this weekend. Dangerous wind chill temperatures are expected with a significant long duration lake effect snow event possible downwind of the Great Lakes.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntx, I dont have the sites look it up, or they are lost in my bookmarks somewhere, but other than 1989, 2022, 2009, what are the best analogs we can look at for a big Dec cold. I think eventually we get around to a large arctic outbreak next month.

What should we be looking for?

[Stratton23]

Brent and as soon as i said that, its gone on the next run hahah, classic GFS giveth and GFS taketh

[Brent]

Brent and as soon as i said that, its gone on the next run hahah, classic GFS giveth and GFS taketh

These models don't have a clue