Texas Fall 2024

[gpsnowman]

It's the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. We have a long way to go. We'll get our turn. It is reassuring that early December cold is making it down to the east. Let them have fun. Our turn comes later when climo is better anyway.

[Stratton23]

Mid 60’s in the forecast here next week, it was 50’s now its 60’s, what a joke

[Brent]

Mid 60’s in the forecast here next week, it was 50’s now its 60’s, what a joke

Heck even up here I see 60s. Sorry but this is pathetic. Our average high is already in the 50s. 2024 has been the year of the torch

[Stratton23]

Looks to me that the pacific jet pattern is set to return in december, flooding the US with pacific air, december is going to suck

[Cpv17]

Looks to me that the pacific jet pattern is set to return in december, flooding the US with pacific air, december is going to suck

You seem kinda surprised?

[wxman22]

Pattern looks fine to me… models show the NW Flow keeping at least the northern parts of the state seasonal for the foreseeable future. Better than a blowtorch… We have plenty of time for arctic outbreaks it’s still early.

[Ntxw]

The pattern itself doesn't look bad. It just looks better 300 hours out.

All seriousness even looking out east, the problem persists is that the real time results, the cold is not strong or expansive as they could be in said pattern. Even a side swipe like this would get us a couple of good freezes at another time, but everything is slightly warmer.

Do agree it could be much worse.

[Brent]

I mean I guess our high tomorrow is 46. That's one of the colder Thanksgivings in awhile

It sucks about being dry but I always had a gut feeling that would happen. It is still so early even for our snow climo (I found exactly one snow that produced more than 3 inches here in November) so whatever. My problem isn't even currently it continues to be how badly last winter ended and the fact it still haunts me(a big reason why I'm going to Breckenridge in a couple weeks) to get over it

Oh and so far east of here doesnt have a real snow threat showing up either(and they did at day 10+ a lot).. So they aren't much different than us

[Ntxw]

I mean I guess our high tomorrow is 46. That's one of the colder Thanksgivings in awhile

It sucks about being dry but I always had a gut feeling that would happen. It is still so early even for our snow climo (I found exactly one snow that produced more than 3 inches here in November) so whatever. My problem isn't even currently it continues to be how badly last winter ended and the fact it still haunts me(a big reason why I'm going to Breckenridge in a couple weeks) to get over it

Oh and so far east of here doesnt have a real snow threat showing up either(and they did at day 10+ a lot).. So they aren't much different than us

I have learned in recently history, there is no such thing as 'it can't be worse than x years' or 'mother nature has to balance it out' because time and again we get proven wrong. If the oceans and air is warmer it is just a new/different base, we can't make chickens out of an orange. I'm sure we all thought 2011-2012 was about as bad a winter, then came 2016-2017 and so on...

Still think we have much more variability this winter, just too soon for expectations.

[Brent]

I mean I guess our high tomorrow is 46. That's one of the colder Thanksgivings in awhile

It sucks about being dry but I always had a gut feeling that would happen. It is still so early even for our snow climo (I found exactly one snow that produced more than 3 inches here in November) so whatever. My problem isn't even currently it continues to be how badly last winter ended and the fact it still haunts me(a big reason why I'm going to Breckenridge in a couple weeks) to get over it

Oh and so far east of here doesnt have a real snow threat showing up either(and they did at day 10+ a lot).. So they aren't much different than us

I have learned in recently history, there is no such thing as 'it can't be worse than x years' or 'mother nature has to balance it out' because time and again we get proven wrong. If the oceans and air is warmer it is just a new/different base, we can't make chickens out of an orange. I'm sure we all thought 2011-2012 was about as bad a winter, then came 2016-2017 and so on...

Still think we have much more variability this winter, just too soon for expectations.

I mean technically the only snowless winter Tulsa had was like in 1903 and there's always been stretches like the last two winters in between the winters people talk about but yeah it does seem to be getting more frequent since 2012 so who knows anymore. Before 2021 there was 4 or 5 bad winters in a row compared to climo and then of course we had back to back winters with a foot

It's like I've always said I don't necessarily want a record winter I just want one good storm that isn't eaten up by extreme arctic air or warm air like the last two winters. That was the thing that has gotten me

[HockeyTx82]

Leon Lett would like to remind of Sleet and Snow on Thanksgiving in Dallas.

[snownado]

DFW has at least tied the record high of 82°F today.

[Iceresistance]

This winter already has more snow for the Rockies at this point compared to last year, blocking pattern does wonders

This point this Winter

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGRBN.png

This point Last Winter

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGRBH.png

[bubba hotep]

Front is through Denton

[Ntxw]

I mean I guess our high tomorrow is 46. That's one of the colder Thanksgivings in awhile

It sucks about being dry but I always had a gut feeling that would happen. It is still so early even for our snow climo (I found exactly one snow that produced more than 3 inches here in November) so whatever. My problem isn't even currently it continues to be how badly last winter ended and the fact it still haunts me(a big reason why I'm going to Breckenridge in a couple weeks) to get over it

Oh and so far east of here doesnt have a real snow threat showing up either(and they did at day 10+ a lot).. So they aren't much different than us

I have learned in recently history, there is no such thing as 'it can't be worse than x years' or 'mother nature has to balance it out' because time and again we get proven wrong. If the oceans and air is warmer it is just a new/different base, we can't make chickens out of an orange. I'm sure we all thought 2011-2012 was about as bad a winter, then came 2016-2017 and so on...

Still think we have much more variability this winter, just too soon for expectations.

I mean technically the only snowless winter Tulsa had was like in 1903 and there's always been stretches like the last two winters in between the winters people talk about but yeah it does seem to be getting more frequent since 2012 so who knows anymore. Before 2021 there was 4 or 5 bad winters in a row compared to climo and then of course we had back to back winters with a foot

It's like I've always said I don't necessarily want a record winter I just want one good storm that isn't eaten up by extreme arctic air or warm air like the last two winters. That was the thing that has gotten me

Yeah, given our latitudes there is a random factor of one or three systems can change the entire view of a winter. It's all about having a favorable dice rolled in your favor. The probability is, the more below normal or colder than normal stretches we have the better our odds of a good roll. If warmth consistently wins out then we have to hope and pray for a miracle, or an extreme blocking pattern which then risks cold and dry. When you're above normal all the time, kind of rough.

This is why years like 2009-2010 were so magical. It was below normal all the time and the marginal events rolled in favor on the snowy side.

[snownado]

83°F was the official high at DFW, breaking the previous record of 82°F set in 1905...

[Brent]

The cold front is here

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Pattern looks fine to me… models show the NW Flow keeping at least the northern parts of the state seasonal for the foreseeable future. Better than a blowtorch… We have plenty of time for arctic outbreaks it’s still early.

I've heard there is a trend for some retrogression, which should help alot. The Pacific jet has extended too much, which I think has shoved the cold air much further east than normal. Could be wrong though

[Brent]

Well Dodge City had the first snow of the year

It's getting closer...

[Throckmorton]

I mean I guess our high tomorrow is 46. That's one of the colder Thanksgivings in awhile

It sucks about being dry but I always had a gut feeling that would happen. It is still so early even for our snow climo (I found exactly one snow that produced more than 3 inches here in November) so whatever. My problem isn't even currently it continues to be how badly last winter ended and the fact it still haunts me(a big reason why I'm going to Breckenridge in a couple weeks) to get over it

Oh and so far east of here doesnt have a real snow threat showing up either(and they did at day 10+ a lot).. So they aren't much different than us

I have learned in recently history, there is no such thing as 'it can't be worse than x years' or 'mother nature has to balance it out' because time and again we get proven wrong. If the oceans and air is warmer it is just a new/different base, we can't make chickens out of an orange. I'm sure we all thought 2011-2012 was about as bad a winter, then came 2016-2017 and so on...

Still think we have much more variability this winter, just too soon for expectations.

I mean technically the only snowless winter Tulsa had was like in 1903 and there's always been stretches like the last two winters in between the winters people talk about but yeah it does seem to be getting more frequent since 2012 so who knows anymore. Before 2021 there was 4 or 5 bad winters in a row compared to climo and then of course we had back to back winters with a foot

It's like I've always said I don't necessarily want a record winter I just want one good storm that isn't eaten up by extreme arctic air or warm air like the last two winters. That was the thing that has gotten me

Nine snowless winters in Tulsa.. Three additional winters with a trace of snow