Texas Winter 2024-2025

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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#621 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 2:20 pm

Stratton23 wrote:txtwister78 oh no i wasnt hedging, but i probably could have worded my comment better about that so it didnt sound like i was canceling winter lol, id just thought id share that that idea was being out out by the models or a well respected researcher in Cohen, but looking at the ensembles, i really dont see any evidence thats gonna have much of an impact at all, bring on the fun in january though!


Ironically the impact of that could end up being what pushes this all into motion (stretched PV which ironically, he acknowledges as a linkage to his warming discussion). It just so happened to be that part was buried deep into his blog and didn't make the tweet/post headline rounds on X. It's not the fact that Canada is going to torch that I was puzzled by.... it was the insinuation or belief that somehow that alone meant "winter was over". That was the issue I had personally.

Oh well, moving off of that topic.
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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#622 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 2:31 pm

txtwister78 yeah its definitely not over, looking forward to what january has to offer, would love to see a pattern kind of like january of 2021 that brought that big snow/ winter storm into texas , seeing some similarities in the 500 mb setup on ensembles
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#623 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 4:19 pm

Big changes on that 3-4 week outlook from the CPC. They still favor a +PNA though unfortunately.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#624 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 4:20 pm

Cpv17 that is something I definitely do not agree with, all models favor a neutral to - PNA, id imagine that map is gonna look alot different a week from now when its updated again
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#625 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 4:25 pm

Still watching Christmas Eve and beyond for a severe weather threat. Right now, instability appears to be borderline (good news) although global models don't always handle that particular parameter well and sometimes values can be underdone a bit so still important to watch especially SC TX points east as these disturbances move through out ahead of a strung out tough out to our west that could keep things on the active side right up to the New Year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#626 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Dec 20, 2024 4:29 pm

CPC colored maps are just that, colored maps. If you would like I can make you a colored maps with whatever colors you like. It will have the same accuracy theirs has, just more realistic :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#627 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 4:43 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 that is something I definitely do not agree with, all models favor a neutral to - PNA, id imagine that map is gonna look alot different a week from now when its updated again


Yep, I don’t buy it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#628 Postby Throckmorton » Fri Dec 20, 2024 4:45 pm

If the ECMWF forecasts are correct for the remainder of this month, Austin Camp Mabry will have its warmest year on record (115 years) and its fifth–warmest December on record (114 years).

How some Texas and Oklahoma locations are faring so far this year (warmest on record ranking in left column):

1...Abilene
1...Amarillo
1...Austin Camp Mabry
1...Brownsville
1...Del Rio
1...El Paso
1...Houston
1...San Antonio
2...Beaumont / Port Arthur
2...College Station
2...Corpus Christi
2...San Angelo
2...Stillwater
2...Tyler
3...Dallas /:Fort Worth
3...Laredo
3...McAllen
3...Victoria
4...Lawton
4...Tulsa
5...Oklahoma City
6...Galveston
6...Midland / Odessa
7...Wichita Falls
9...Waco

How some Texas and Oklahoma locations are faring so far this month through Dec. 19 (warmest on record ranking in left column):

..6...Brownsville
..6...El Paso
..8...Del Rio
..9...Amarillo
..9...Austin Camp Mabry
10...Galveston
12...Victoria
13...Abilene
13...College Station
13...Laredo
13...McAllen
14...San Angelo
14...San Antonio
16...Beaumont / Port Arthur
16...Houston
18...Midland / Odessa
18...Stillwater
19...Corpus Christi
19...Tyler
20...Dallas / Fort Worth
20...Waco
25...Wichita Falls
27...Lawton
30...Oklahoma City
35...Tulsa
Last edited by Throckmorton on Sat Dec 21, 2024 3:38 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#629 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 20, 2024 5:14 pm

Throckmorton wrote:If the ECMWF forecasts are correct for the remainder of this month, Austin Camp Mabry will have its warmest year on record (115 years) and its fifth–warmest December on record (114 years).

How some Texas and Oklahoma locations are faring so far this year (ranking in left column):

1...Abilene
1...Amarillo
1...Austin Camp Mabry
1...Brownsville
1...Del Rio
1...El Paso
1...Houston
1...San Antonio
2...Beaumont / Port Arthur
2...College Station
2...Corpus Christi
2...San Angelo
2...Stillwater
2...Tyler
3...Dallas /:Fort Worth
3...Laredo
3...McAllen
3...Victoria
4...Lawton
4...Tulsa
5...Oklahoma City
6...Galveston
6...Midland / Odessa
7...Wichita Falls
9...Waco

For 2024, September/October was terribly hot for OKC
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#630 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 20, 2024 5:23 pm

I'm putting +PNA up there with Pacific air for things I'd rather never hear again :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#631 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 5:53 pm

Pow Ponder just posted on facebook saying that a SSWE has just occurred due to a spike of temperatures in the arctic / stratosphere, was wondering if anyone can confirm this
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#632 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:21 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Pow Ponder just posted on facebook saying that a SSWE has just occurred due to a spike of temperatures in the arctic / stratosphere, was wondering if anyone can confirm this

We currently have a spike, I would say that the SSW is currently ongoing or is getting well underway
Image
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SPIKF.png

The Zonal Wind is still high since the PV was unusually very strong previously
Image
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SPIKV.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#633 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:30 pm

Glad to see some things to talk about besides warmth. Bummer on the warm end to December. We have hardly even had freezes, but ultimately, January is deeper winter, so I would prefer cold then if we have to delay it.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#634 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:32 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Pow Ponder just posted on facebook saying that a SSWE has just occurred due to a spike of temperatures in the arctic / stratosphere, was wondering if anyone can confirm this


Yes he is comparing it to last January when we had a high of 6 one day

Saying mid month
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#635 Postby Golfisnteasy7575 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:36 pm

Brent wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Pow Ponder just posted on facebook saying that a SSWE has just occurred due to a spike of temperatures in the arctic / stratosphere, was wondering if anyone can confirm this


Yes he is comparing it to last January when we had a high of 6 one day

Saying mid month

It was very cold for a week and a winter event here 5-6inches and 15 degrees snowing :eek:
Be tough to beat that Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#636 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:46 pm

Gheesh 18z GFS! Alaskan blocking extending into the arctic circle/ beauford sea, thats a recipe for extremely cold, bitter air to flood the US, hold on folks, it could be one heck of a roller coaster ride
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#637 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:56 pm

Golfisnteasy7575 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Pow Ponder just posted on facebook saying that a SSWE has just occurred due to a spike of temperatures in the arctic / stratosphere, was wondering if anyone can confirm this


Yes he is comparing it to last January when we had a high of 6 one day

Saying mid month

It was very cold for a week and a winter event here 5-6inches and 15 degrees snowing :eek:
Be tough to beat that Brent


If that storm had actually verified here like shown a few days out it would have made the winter but we only got an inch because the dry air ate it up

But it was also the only real snow we got last winter

The cold was crazy though at least one or two days was on par with 2021 it just didn't last as long. I do remember what little snow we had lasting in the shade for about 5 days though
Last edited by Brent on Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#638 Postby Golfisnteasy7575 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:58 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Gheesh 18z GFS! Alaskan blocking extending into the arctic circle/ beauford sea, thats a recipe for extremely cold, bitter air to flood the US, hold on folks, it could be one heck of a roller coaster ride

I agree Stratton23. All about trough and ridge placements
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#639 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:16 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Gheesh 18z GFS! Alaskan blocking extending into the arctic circle/ beauford sea, thats a recipe for extremely cold, bitter air to flood the US, hold on folks, it could be one heck of a roller coaster ride


Beaufort Sea is a sweet spot.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#640 Postby richtrav » Fri Dec 20, 2024 8:12 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
richtrav wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
So have we looked at the other temps and Winters as far back as records go? I'm not questioning your theory or concern but I see posts like this all the time.

Also records go only so far back so we don't know what happened before.

I think the general consensus is that ice caps were as fsr south as the north part of the USA, at one point 20,000 years ago, and us humans did not melt them.

I'm not denying we can impact the earth, but I also wonder if each of our relative short existence and experiences sometimes make us think things are worse or better now then thing were back in the day.

The earth has been around a long time, and until the sun explodes or a giant meteor hits and blows it up, the earth will be around with or without us.

Yes, I remember the winter of 89 and now 2021, two extremes that stick in my head, but out of the days I've been alive since 1982 and have lived in Texas, Christmas and winter have not always delivered.

Plus it's all very relative if the airport gets snow and I don't, does that mean it snowed in Texas that day because records would show it did but my house didn't get any. And on the contrary if it snowed at my house but not at the airport does that mean it snowed that day? Records would say no.

https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather ... since-1898


We do know a little bit about the winter climate from tree pollen data taken at certain sites. About 4-6000 years ago the average temperature in TX was probably around 1C warmer than present and Arctic outbreaks were less severe. This is backed up by the presence of red mangrove pollen showing up during that time in the Corpus area. Their presence has not been detected within the past 3500 or so years or more than ~ 6500 years ago so the Middle Holocene in TX was presumably milder than periods either before or after. Red mangroves are tropical and will not stand frost; a local population at the mouth of the Rio Grande had started after the Dec 1989 freeze and it was all but eliminated in ‘21, with just the largest tree only barely surviving, a shell of its former self. The traditional northern limit of red mangrove in Tamaulipas has roughly been at La Pesca, where they were nearly eliminated by the ‘89 freeze but re-established. Since ‘89 it has been migrating northwards on the Tamaulipan coast.


Interesting post. What source is that from?

And to my point, what warmed the earth then?

Also, is warmth all that bad? I mean dry and hot is bad, but a warm planet allows for food to grow and people to prosper. The mini ice age was harsh.


That was from a paper, you should be able to access it here: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-550X/6/1/19
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