Texas Winter 2024-2025

[cajungal]

cajungal plenty of time for that to change

I follow here because sometimes but not always what yall get we are next such as if it snows in Houston. I remember Christmas Eve 2004, following this forum and watching the radar in the Houston area and watching it creep east and we got our 1st white Christmas in history.

[Stratton23]

I havent seen a GFS run like that since february 2021, i mean that 18z run is truely a site to behold, that is incredible

[orangeblood]

GFS goes to last nights Euro….507 into Illinois, Greenland block is almost to 6 std. pretty insane run!!

[Ntxw]

That gradient on the GFS. Blizzard?

[orangeblood]

That gradient on the GFS. Blizzard?

Ha I’d say so…Snow with gust to 35-40mph, temps crashing into the teens, sub zero wind chills





sub zero wind chills

[Tireman4]

Another wow from this radar shot…

 https://x.com/collingrosswx/status/1873103014179029177

Let me say this, I am just a met student, but I have never ever seen that. I had composed a post about the tornadic storm kept its signature in place over Galveston Bay. I am just gob smacked as I watched it traverse the water. Like the Durecho that hit Houston this May, Mother Nature will still never stop surprising me.

[Brent]

I can't even imagine the hype coming if these models hold up a few more days

Someone already posted the Euro showing 10 degrees for a high here

[Throckmorton]

Some EPS mean temperature forecasts for Austin and some areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 10th (12/28, 12Z run):

50 (68)–29 (18)...Amarillo
53 (69)–35 (23)...Austin Camp Mabry
46 (65)–30 (18)...Dallas
39 (60)–23 (09)...Oklahoma City
35 (56)–19 (07)...Tulsa

=====

Some GEFS mean temperature forecasts for Austin and some areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 10th (12/28, 12Z run):

50 (63)–29 (15)...Amarillo
58 (71)–42 (29)...Austin Camp Mabry
49 (64)–35 (25)...Dallas
41 (58)–28 (15)...Oklahoma City
38 (56)–25 (11)...Tulsa

[orangeblood]

The agreement going towards the extreme between the GFS and Euro is honestly really shocking at this range, attention grabbing!!

[Brent]

The agreement going towards the extreme between the GFS and Euro is honestly really shocking at this range, attention grabbing!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/apparent_temperature_f/1735408800/1736337600-0j9N4dNpGvw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1735387200/1736596800-sEi9rzJ6kI4.png

I mean I thought the Euro was off its rocker earlier but now the GFS is pretty close..

The ensembles have gotten colder every run too

[Stratton23]

That entire GFS run just keeps dumping arctic air into the lower 48, insane!

[Ntxw]

The agreement going towards the extreme between the GFS and Euro is honestly really shocking at this range, attention grabbing!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/apparent_temperature_f/1735408800/1736337600-0j9N4dNpGvw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1735387200/1736596800-sEi9rzJ6kI4.png

I mean I thought the Euro was off its rocker earlier but now the GFS is pretty close..

The ensembles have gotten colder every run too

Imagine being closer in, when it can see the ground truth. That initial storm is intriguing, it could be a doozy for the country.

[Cpv17]

Another wow from this radar shot…

 https://x.com/collingrosswx/status/1873103014179029177

Let me say this, I am just a met student, but I have never ever seen that. I had composed a post about the tornadic storm kept its signature in place over Galveston Bay. I am just gob smacked as I watched it traverse the water. Like the Durecho that hit Houston this May, Mother Nature will still never stop surprising me.

These severe storms down here in southeast TX this week has to mean something is on the horizon IMO.. this has just been an insane week of tornadoes down here. Not sure I’ve seen one like it. I mean my small hometown of El Campo made the national news lol

[orangeblood]

The agreement going towards the extreme between the GFS and Euro is honestly really shocking at this range, attention grabbing!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/apparent_temperature_f/1735408800/1736337600-0j9N4dNpGvw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1735387200/1736596800-sEi9rzJ6kI4.png

I mean I thought the Euro was off its rocker earlier but now the GFS is pretty close..

The ensembles have gotten colder every run too

Imagine being closer in, when it can see the ground truth. That initial storm is intriguing, it could be a doozy for the country.

Yeah, you get that kind of storm ahead of this type of Arctic Outbreak it has the potential to rival Feb 2021 but more widespread into the southeast US. But I’m much less confident of a storm than I am a major outbreak coming to the US. The short wave timing is crucial for a storm like that and we’re still a ways out in model land

[orangeblood]

That entire GFS run just keeps dumping arctic air into the lower 48, insane!

It’s gets more insane the deeper I analyze it, it already has a 10 day average of 15-25 F below normal for a massive swath of the lower 48 with another 1045 mb arctic HP crashing into the northern plains at the end of its run. I’m counting a total of 6 Arctic frontal passes into the southern plains over the next 2 weeks with no end in sight.

It maybe the most extreme GFS run I’ve ever seen and I’ve looked at a embarrassingly high number of runs over the past 2 decades. It’s a keeper that’s for sure!!

[Brent]

I mean I thought the Euro was off its rocker earlier but now the GFS is pretty close..

The ensembles have gotten colder every run too

Imagine being closer in, when it can see the ground truth. That initial storm is intriguing, it could be a doozy for the country.

Yeah, you get that kind of storm ahead of this type of Arctic Outbreak it has the potential to rival Feb 2021 but more widespread into the southeast US. But I’m much less confident of a storm than I am a major outbreak coming to the US. The short wave timing is crucial for a storm like that and we’re still a ways out in model land

Right I still wouldn't be surprised if there's very little or no snow here but clearly the setup has historic potential if everything lines up

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Imagine being closer in, when it can see the ground truth. That initial storm is intriguing, it could be a doozy for the country.

Yeah, you get that kind of storm ahead of this type of Arctic Outbreak it has the potential to rival Feb 2021 but more widespread into the southeast US. But I’m much less confident of a storm than I am a major outbreak coming to the US. The short wave timing is crucial for a storm like that and we’re still a ways out in model land

Right I still wouldn't be surprised if there's very little or no snow here but clearly the setup has historic potential if everything lines up

I agree Brent. Winter is tough in the south. Many things have to align. If the trough is far enough west, a system will form. Where it goes is anyone's guess this far out. We don't want too strong pna.

[Ntxw]

I mean I thought the Euro was off its rocker earlier but now the GFS is pretty close..

The ensembles have gotten colder every run too

Imagine being closer in, when it can see the ground truth. That initial storm is intriguing, it could be a doozy for the country.

Yeah, you get that kind of storm ahead of this type of Arctic Outbreak it has the potential to rival Feb 2021 but more widespread into the southeast US. But I’m much less confident of a storm than I am a major outbreak coming to the US. The short wave timing is crucial for a storm like that and we’re still a ways out in model land

Often times models understate the lift mechanism with a true arctic front. It really doesn't take much, literally even 0.02 qpf, especially if growth zone is near the surface. But yeah way too far out though you always get a storm somewhere along the boundary.

[Sambucol2024]

That entire GFS run just keeps dumping arctic air into the lower 48, insane!

It’s gets more insane the deeper I analyze it, it already has a 10 day average of 15-25 F below normal for a massive swath of the lower 48 with another 1045 mb arctic HP crashing into the northern plains at the end of its run. I’m counting a total of 6 Arctic frontal passes into the southern plains over the next 2 weeks with no end in sight.

It maybe the most extreme GFS run I’ve ever seen and I’ve looked at a embarrassingly high number of runs over the past 2 decades. It’s a keeper that’s for sure!!

Do those runs show them coming straight down into Texas?

[HockeyTx82]

Well for what it's worth, I've been chirping my mom's ear off while we're walking around Six Flags and she just now got a news break about the polar vortex affecting Texas through her Facebook app, or some news break.

So yeah, things are trending.