Texas Winter 2024-2025

[HockeyTx82]

Try checking this out. Start with Feb 9th and go through the 12th.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2010.html

I like our chances with the neutral/open trough scenario at this point and that is the best outcome. Positive tilt - little moisture. Negative tilt/Closed - cold air erosion

These marginal, high qpf events can be quite the blockbuster, where it is JUST cold enough.

So wait are trends looking favorable for DFW still, or more SW of us and central Texas?

I see the 12z GFS is running now, will be interesting to see what outputs after pulling the rug out.

[txtwister78]

ICON looks great on a snowfall map but that looks more typical of an elevation type event out in west Texas and as you get closer to the DFW metroplex precip never quite makes it or transitions to liquid. Temp profiles borderline elsewhere with surface temps in the mid to upper 30's across N TX. A lot of moisture (maybe too much with dews climbing in the low 30's Thursday afternoon) without enough cold air around.

I also remember one point hearing there's the geographical area East/Northeast of the DFW that those mountains tend to bottle up cold air that tend to seep down from that area so that could also play a role we're kind of in a bowl.

Still not zero in plenty of time for things to change.

That's true but to be honest I'm just not seeing that type of cold air arriving into the state to where it would be a factor. Heck, the 12z ICON ensemble has temps in the low 40's Thursday afternoon across much of the state. That's not what you want to see if you're looking for snow or an arctic source of cold to reinforce as precip arrives. Mentioned this the other day, but the cold that's coming looks increasingly more modified and even the cold that is pushed east doesn't look as impressive on models has it did a few days ago.

Still under the positive PNA influence and my belief was until that changes, cold here would be an issue. Not that we're torching of course (still below normal relative to averages), but not cold enough.

[Ntxw]

I like our chances with the neutral/open trough scenario at this point and that is the best outcome. Positive tilt - little moisture. Negative tilt/Closed - cold air erosion

These marginal, high qpf events can be quite the blockbuster, where it is JUST cold enough.

So wait are trends looking favorable for DFW still, or more SW of us and central Texas?

I see the 12z GFS is running now, will be interesting to see what outputs after pulling the rug out.

The trend on guidance is wetter for most. Now we need to line up if wetter = warmer and where it will stay cold enough. Remember, the north is chasing moisture and the south is chasing cold.

[Gotwood]

These marginal, high qpf events can be quite the blockbuster, where it is JUST cold enough.

So wait are trends looking favorable for DFW still, or more SW of us and central Texas?

I see the 12z GFS is running now, will be interesting to see what outputs after pulling the rug out.

The trend on guidance is wetter for most. Now we need to line up if wetter = warmer and where it will stay cold enough. Remember, the north is chasing moisture and the south is chasing cold.

The blanket of snow that’s going to be put down to our north should help filter in the cold air no?

[Ntxw]

So wait are trends looking favorable for DFW still, or more SW of us and central Texas?

I see the 12z GFS is running now, will be interesting to see what outputs after pulling the rug out.

The trend on guidance is wetter for most. Now we need to line up if wetter = warmer and where it will stay cold enough. Remember, the north is chasing moisture and the south is chasing cold.

The blanket of snow that’s going to be put down to our north should help filter in the cold air no?

It will help with a little less modifying, we also need help from the S/W coming out to cool a loft and bring it down at the surface though 850s looks to remain below 0c.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS coming in with SW trough further east so far. It is wetter and a bit colder than 06Z. Similar to 00Z but a touch warmer as the cold pool to our NE is a touch weaker.

[Gotwood]

12Z GFS coming in with SW trough further east so far. It is wetter and a bit colder.

Worst case scenario setting up (cold rain) reminds me of right before new years 2020 it stayed just above freezing in DFW and rained the whole time.

[txtwister78]

GFS has highs in the plains Wednesday afternoon folks in the 30's. Where's the true arctic air? It's hung up in Ontario but that's not going to get it done here. Not enough cold this go around. Highs in the 40's in the panhandle and into Oklahoma Thursday as the system ejects out with mid to low 30's across the Hill Country. Borderline is an understatement.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS coming in with SW trough further east so far. It is wetter and a bit colder.

Worst case scenario setting up (cold rain) reminds me of right before new years 2020 it stayed just above freezing in DFW and rained the whole time.

We need the PV to hold on a bit stronger than this run shows. Could be great snow or cold rain. Really need the trough to kick our way 12 hours earlier to ensure it is snow.

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s reassuring for us in the north to see the icon shift the way it did. The gfs runs were fun yesterday but I’m skeptical when the icon isn’t lining up. Cmc tends to overdo cold so I don’t take it seriously when it suppresses everything to the south. That said, I am hoping the models converge on something that at least makes most people happy.

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS coming in with SW trough further east so far. It is wetter and a bit colder.

Worst case scenario setting up (cold rain) reminds me of right before new years 2020 it stayed just above freezing in DFW and rained the whole time.

We need the PV to hold on a bit stronger than this run shows. Could be great snow or cold rain. Really need the trough to kick our way 12 hours earlier to ensure it is snow.

A little quicker and phasing will definitely help! Brent gets some action too.

[Gotwood]

GFS has highs in the plains Wednesday afternoon folks in the 30's. Where's the true arctic air? It's hung up in Ontario but that's not going to get it done here. Not enough cold this go around. Highs in the 40's in the panhandle and into Oklahoma Thursday as the system ejects out with mid to low 30's across the Hill Country. Borderline is an understatement.

Afraid you may be right. Looks like we may have to wait till February.

[wxman22]

12Z GFS brings the storm back.

[Ntxw]

Canadian is still adamant cold lobe will come into the upper midwest and snows central and SE Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

This is not a bad set up but the delay sure makes it tricky. For Tyler, verbatim on 12Z GFS the entire column from 700mb down is between 30 and 34 the entire event.

[Gotwood]

This is not a bad set up but the delay sure makes it tricky. For Tyler, verbatim on 12Z GFS the entire column from 700mb down is between 30 and 34 the entire event.

Either going to be a big boom or big bust.

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z GFS coming in with SW trough further east so far. It is wetter and a bit colder.

Worst case scenario setting up (cold rain) reminds me of right before new years 2020 it stayed just above freezing in DFW and rained the whole time.

True if taken verbatim most of us get stuck with a cold rain. However, it’s a pretty substantial shift back toward the 18z and 0z runs, suggesting that the 6z is more of an outlier with the energy held back to the west for too long. Hopefully we see it speed up a bit more and match the 18z in future runs. With relatively small amounts of variability leading to distinctly different outcomes, I agree with wxman that none of these runs should be taken too seriously yet.

[Ntxw]

If you haven't been following the MJO is trending towards amplification in 8-1-2.

[Ralph's Weather]

True if taken verbatim most of us get stuck with a cold rain. However, it’s a pretty substantial shift back toward the 18z and 0z runs, suggesting that the 6z is more of an outlier with the energy held back to the west for too long. Hopefully we see it speed up a bit more and match the 18z in future runs. With relatively small amounts of variability leading to distinctly different outcomes, I agree with wxman that none of these runs should be taken too seriously yet.

Yep, we won't really know until Sunday or so. And even then if it is still looking like a Thu/Fri event then we may not really know until day of as moisture will be chasing retreating cold air. If this becomes a Wed night/Thu event then we are looking at significant snow, by late week it become borderline for many of us.

[HockeyTx82]

12Z GFS brings the storm back.

https://i.ibb.co/KLN9PzB/IMG-0101.png


https://i.ibb.co/jMPvHxf/IMG-0102.png

Gone are the big totals. And looks like a snow hole over DFW.

But I guess when you full 2ft, down to nothing, baby steps back in the right are good.

I'm tempted to stay off of here until Tuesday.

I am about to head out for the funeral, stay positive everyone and keep the faith.