Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

EPS main axis is locked in!!! The fringes are going to take awhile to define

[Ntxw]

Saving for future reference if this becomes the benchmark 5h for some. You just don't see this very often in Texas, more on the east coast.

[Texas Snow]

Still waiting to takeoff and saw Evan Andrews post which makes a couple good points.

As we finally get into the colder air today, we move to the next storm. Global models are finally starting to agree that we have a system on the way Thursday and Thursday night.

This graphic shows we have a low pressure trough in northern Mexico Thursday AM that will kick out and head into Texas. Recall a couple of days ago there were solutions that showed it spinning away and staying in Mexico...and others showing dry air pushing it south.

So at this point we know the pattern. Now, the fine tuning won't kick in until tomorrow as it hasn't even entered the US yet. Depending on the strength of the system, some models pull up enough warm air ALOFT to yield more rain than snow. Others have more snow than rain. Fortunately none indicate an ice storm. And temps will be close to freezing that day.

The way it looks as of TODAY, is that it will go back and forth between rain and snow from DFW south Thursday...before ending as some snow Thursday night. Areas north and west will see more snow. I'm not stupid enough to post model output of snow four days out because models don't take into account melting with temps near freezing and almost always overpredict #'s. And literally ONE degree either way could mean the difference of 4" of snow versus slushy rain. That degree of fine tuning from the data does not exist yet.

It's Sunday. It will be DRY Monday-Tuesday and likely Wednesday.
We'll have more accurate info by this time tomorrow. Enjoy!

[Brent]

I don’t know if it’s just me not paying attention to that, but I had never heard of a Cold Weather Advisory.

It's the replacement for wind chill advisories. Gonna be permanent when we get super cold in other words

[snownado]

I don’t know if it’s just me not paying attention to that, but I had never heard of a Cold Weather Advisory.

It's the replacement for wind chill advisories. Gonna be permanent when we get super cold

Winter Weather Advisories are also going away (though not for another year, I believe).

[orangeblood]

Still waiting to takeoff and saw Evan Andrews post which makes a couple good points.

As we finally get into the colder air today, we move to the next storm. Global models are finally starting to agree that we have a system on the way Thursday and Thursday night.

This graphic shows we have a low pressure trough in northern Mexico Thursday AM that will kick out and head into Texas. Recall a couple of days ago there were solutions that showed it spinning away and staying in Mexico...and others showing dry air pushing it south.

So at this point we know the pattern. Now, the fine tuning won't kick in until tomorrow as it hasn't even entered the US yet. Depending on the strength of the system, some models pull up enough warm air ALOFT to yield more rain than snow. Others have more snow than rain. Fortunately none indicate an ice storm. And temps will be close to freezing that day.

The way it looks as of TODAY, is that it will go back and forth between rain and snow from DFW south Thursday...before ending as some snow Thursday night. Areas north and west will see more snow. I'm not stupid enough to post model output of snow four days out because models don't take into account melting with temps near freezing and almost always overpredict #'s. And literally ONE degree either way could mean the difference of 4" of snow versus slushy rain. That degree of fine tuning from the data does not exist yet.

It's Sunday. It will be DRY Monday-Tuesday and likely Wednesday.
We'll have more accurate info by this time tomorrow. Enjoy!

Evan loves him some Bi Polar GFS

[JayDT]

I don’t know if it’s just me not paying attention to that, but I had never heard of a Cold Weather Advisory.

It's the replacement for wind chill advisories. Gonna be permanent when we get super cold in other words

Ohh okay got it. It does sound more straightforward than Wind Chill Advisory. Thank you!

[gpsnowman]

Still waiting to takeoff and saw Evan Andrews post which makes a couple good points.

As we finally get into the colder air today, we move to the next storm. Global models are finally starting to agree that we have a system on the way Thursday and Thursday night.

This graphic shows we have a low pressure trough in northern Mexico Thursday AM that will kick out and head into Texas. Recall a couple of days ago there were solutions that showed it spinning away and staying in Mexico...and others showing dry air pushing it south.

So at this point we know the pattern. Now, the fine tuning won't kick in until tomorrow as it hasn't even entered the US yet. Depending on the strength of the system, some models pull up enough warm air ALOFT to yield more rain than snow. Others have more snow than rain. Fortunately none indicate an ice storm. And temps will be close to freezing that day.

The way it looks as of TODAY, is that it will go back and forth between rain and snow from DFW south Thursday...before ending as some snow Thursday night. Areas north and west will see more snow. I'm not stupid enough to post model output of snow four days out because models don't take into account melting with temps near freezing and almost always overpredict #'s. And literally ONE degree either way could mean the difference of 4" of snow versus slushy rain. That degree of fine tuning from the data does not exist yet.

It's Sunday. It will be DRY Monday-Tuesday and likely Wednesday.
We'll have more accurate info by this time tomorrow. Enjoy!

Evan loves him some Bi Polar GFS

Instead of saying "I'm not stupid enough", he should have said something like " It would be premature of me". Dude is bitter. As a professional he needs to be better than this .

[Texas Snow]

I agree but he just cracks me up rather than get upset. He’s still a good source to reference for storm insights along with the many others, including this page.

I think we are finally about to takeoff, puhlease!

[gpsnowman]

I agree but he just cracks me up rather than get upset. He’s still a good source to reference for storm insights along with the many others, including this page.

Agree. Just takes too many shots at weather enthusiasts. I enjoy his forecasts, been watching him for years.

[Texas Snow]

My take is he takes shots at the people that post only asnowpocalypse shots to social media to get clicks and make money off hysteria not people that post inside a forum like this and show both good and bad outputs as they actually discuss the and possible outcomes.

Shutting down. See ya in chilly Texas

[Ntxw]

For posterity. Feb 2010 you North Texans who remember.

[txtwister78]

Still waiting to takeoff and saw Evan Andrews post which makes a couple good points.

As we finally get into the colder air today, we move to the next storm. Global models are finally starting to agree that we have a system on the way Thursday and Thursday night.

This graphic shows we have a low pressure trough in northern Mexico Thursday AM that will kick out and head into Texas. Recall a couple of days ago there were solutions that showed it spinning away and staying in Mexico...and others showing dry air pushing it south.

So at this point we know the pattern. Now, the fine tuning won't kick in until tomorrow as it hasn't even entered the US yet. Depending on the strength of the system, some models pull up enough warm air ALOFT to yield more rain than snow. Others have more snow than rain. Fortunately none indicate an ice storm. And temps will be close to freezing that day.

The way it looks as of TODAY, is that it will go back and forth between rain and snow from DFW south Thursday...before ending as some snow Thursday night. Areas north and west will see more snow. I'm not stupid enough to post model output of snow four days out because models don't take into account melting with temps near freezing and almost always overpredict #'s. And literally ONE degree either way could mean the difference of 4" of snow versus slushy rain. That degree of fine tuning from the data does not exist yet.

It's Sunday. It will be DRY Monday-Tuesday and likely Wednesday.
We'll have more accurate info by this time tomorrow. Enjoy!

I think that's a great summary of this event in terms of the complexity of forecasting out ahead and realizing there are still ways this can go either way.

[Ntxw]

Watch 850mb front on Weds especially to the west. If there is light snow it would be with this feature.

[losf1981]

For posterity. Feb 2010 you North Texans who remember.

https://i.imgur.com/zFZwzQY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/527t45W.png

weather newb here.....how does this week's setup compare?

[Ntxw]

For posterity. Feb 2010 you North Texans who remember.

https://i.imgur.com/zFZwzQY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/527t45W.png

weather newb here.....how does this week's setup compare?

Quite similar. No two patterns are exactly alike but placement of Northern Mexico ULL, incoming northern stream to phase, coastal low formation, cold prior but not bitter barely enough, blizzard just to the north days ahead, it's uncanny a bit.

[Stratton23]

You north texans enjoy this event, hopefully yall cash in big time, just hope us se texans have a chance at some point down the road to see something other than miserable cold rain

[Gotwood]

You north texans enjoy this event, hopefully yall cash in big time, just hope us se texans have a chance at some point down the road to see something other than miserable cold rain

Your overall good attitude and optimism this entire season so far deserves to be rewarded I’m hoping you get some winter weather.

[cycloneye]

JB with his take.

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1875987508724707348

[Iceresistance]

13z NWS-Blend, got this from another forum


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXn9J.png