Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2841 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:57 pm

It's a big run, the convective streaks of precip coming out of Mexico would dump lots of snow on W and N TX. GFS has totally caved. Mixing in C TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2842 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:59 pm

The GFS Caves.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2843 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:00 pm

What is this? Trending slower and more troughy now!?

Image
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnf2.gif
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2844 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:02 pm

Iceresistance wrote:What is this? Trending slower and more troughy now!?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnf2.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnf2.gif


The guidance has trended with some backend snow, likely with a trowal trying to develop due to the slow nature. It is this feature that may help Oklahoma.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2845 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:What is this? Trending slower and more troughy now!?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnf2.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnf2.gif


The guidance has trended with some backend snow, likely with a trowal trying to develop due to the slow nature. It is this feature that may help Oklahoma.


Does that take away from anything we've discussed about these crazy numbers and consistency, or just adding more to share the wealth?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2846 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:04 pm

GFS took a big step in aligning with Euro tonight. No question about it now. Also, very close to creating a nice snow band across the I-35 corridor from SA to Austin before precip ends as upper levels cool even more with heavier precipitation. Trending to be more impactful event across more regions tonight.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2847 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:04 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:What is this? Trending slower and more troughy now!?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnf2.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnf2.gif


The guidance has trended with some backend snow, likely with a trowal trying to develop due to the slow nature. It is this feature that may help Oklahoma.


Does that take away from anything we've discussed about these crazy numbers and consistency, or just adding more to share the wealth?

It adds more, and I am about to post something crazy.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2848 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:04 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:What is this? Trending slower and more troughy now!?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnf2.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXnf2.gif


The guidance has trended with some backend snow, likely with a trowal trying to develop due to the slow nature. It is this feature that may help Oklahoma.


Does that take away from anything we've discussed about these crazy numbers and consistency, or just adding more to share the wealth?


Share wealth, in fact if you have this thing slowing down even more and wraparound, it would snow longer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2849 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:05 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2850 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:06 pm

Golf in western Tennessee gets into the action!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2851 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
The guidance has trended with some backend snow, likely with a trowal trying to develop due to the slow nature. It is this feature that may help Oklahoma.


Does that take away from anything we've discussed about these crazy numbers and consistency, or just adding more to share the wealth?


Share wealth, in fact if you have this thing slowing down even more and wraparound, it would snow longer.


Okay so folks have been on here since the beginning of this website, have we ever seen such numbers, model agreement and consistency at this time point within x amount of hours before the event unfolds and actually have it go the way it says or did it just completely bomb out and nothing happened?

I know we like to dream big but my gosh at this point it seems like this is getting to the ridiculousness aspect of the amount of snow potentially we could truly get and we're not crazy for posting these "Clown Maps"
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2852 Postby Quixotic » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:08 pm

The blocking up north is incredible
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2853 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:08 pm

As Ntxw mentioned earlier, there’s still plenty of time left for an uptick in coverage and totals.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2854 Postby JayDT » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:08 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2855 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:08 pm

Quixotic wrote:The blocking up north is incredible


The 18z GEFS was crazy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2856 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:09 pm

Would not be surprised to see Winter Storm watches posted for San Angelo region and DFW as soon as tomorrow night with perhaps Austin/San Antonio waiting a bit longer for more model support before pulling the trigger on winter weather issuance.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2857 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:11 pm

Cpv17 wrote:As Ntxw mentioned earlier, there’s still plenty of time left for an uptick in coverage and totals.


Yeah we're getting into frame now the globals can kind of depict these convective bandings, but even there you see the weird blobs. With hi-res it'll be more impressive.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2858 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:15 pm

Canadian is folding too. Kind of weird with some mixing issues but you can tell it's caved.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2859 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:15 pm

Some of this guidance might get Wichita Falls under a Winter Storm Watch. :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2860 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:15 pm



One side of Bell County basically buried and the other dry as a desert :lol:
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