Texas Winter 2024-2025

[HockeyTx82]

12z CMC depicting even warmer temp profiles further north with mostly sleet and borderline freezing rain into DFW.

It always looks good 5 days out, then we get into the 3-4 day zone and we slapped back to reality that we live in Texas.

Fun while it lasted.

Guess Evan was right.

What concerns me the most is Wxman57 said wait until Monday.

Well it's Monday and trends are going the wrong direction.

[txtwister78]

12z CMC depicting even warmer temp profiles further north with mostly sleet and borderline freezing rain into DFW.

It always looks good 5 days out, then we get into the 3-4 day zone and we slapped back to reality that we live in Texas.

Fun while it lasted.

Guess Evan was right.

Yeah feel like a broken record when I say this, but that's why I'm never too quick to jump on global models several days out especially when you have events that are upper level driven without real arctic air in place. Subtle changes in the atmosphere can make or break these in an instant.

Still a day to watch these trends as they could reverse but based on ensembles that I've been looking at over the past few runs, the trend has been gradually warmer with time.

[Gotwood]

12z CMC depicting even warmer temp profiles further north with mostly sleet and borderline freezing rain into DFW.

It always looks good 5 days out, then we get into the 3-4 day zone and we slapped back to reality that we live in Texas.

Fun while it lasted.

Guess Evan was right.

What concerns me the most is Wxman57 said wait until Monday.

Well it's Monday and trends are going the wrong direction.

The temp profiles that the CMC doesn’t make sense with that “mix” temps are upper 20s for most that will be all snow.

[iorange55]

You can’t live or die by a couple model runs. No one is “right” or “wrong” yet.

[Ralph's Weather]

12z CMC depicting even warmer temp profiles further north with mostly sleet and borderline freezing rain into DFW.

It always looks good 5 days out, then we get into the 3-4 day zone and we slapped back to reality that we live in Texas.

Fun while it lasted.

Guess Evan was right.

We are talking about less than 100mi variation in a surface low that will be generated by a trough that is just coming onshore of the Pac NW. We will have many more variations in the evolution of that surface low. Upper levels look great and cold air is in place the finer details are just now being set on the table.

[txtwister78]

12z CMC depicting even warmer temp profiles further north with mostly sleet and borderline freezing rain into DFW.

It always looks good 5 days out, then we get into the 3-4 day zone and we slapped back to reality that we live in Texas.

Fun while it lasted.

Guess Evan was right.

What concerns me the most is Wxman57 said wait until Monday.

Well it's Monday and trends are going the wrong direction.

The temp profiles that the CMC doesn’t make sense with that “mix” temps are upper 20s for most that will be all snow.

Not about surface temp for snow (other than accumulation). You need temps profiles upstairs at all layers to be below freezing. CMC is creating a thin layer of warmer air above the surface and so you get more sleet and because the surface temp is borderline freezing the other precip type that shows up is freezing rain.

[bubba hotep]

I agree that you can't read too much into individual model runs, but I think the 12z Canadian highlights that those who live on the edge will cash in big time!

[snownado]

Now the 12z GGEM would piss me off for sure.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm with Ntx, wouldnt be tooo concerned about surface temps. If the upper levels are cold, with no warm nose, then as the precip falls, temps will fall to below freezing. I would be more concerned about the upper level temps, which have been much more consistent then the surface forecasts.

Something to note on timing. I would anticipate the precip shield to fire up quicker than they expect, and further NE of the low than models show. The storm crossing the country right now is actually a good example of that.

Sorry for my SE TX folks. Cold miserable rain.

[snownado]

Fingers crossed that the 12z EURO shifts a bit colder/SE for breathing room.

Hate to be riding the SE edge of the heavy snows at this range with such a marginal setup

[Ntxw]

I agree that you can't read too much into individual model runs, but I think the 12z Canadian highlights that those who live on the edge will cash in big time!

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2025010612/138/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

That's the key for me. Someone where the intersection of QPF and good profile is going to cash big. There is a battle between WAA to the SE and CAA above the surface from dome of high pressure over the front range. The CMC may look troublesome but it's grown the area and intensity of snow from it's prior runs. We are starting to tighten up the rain/snow mix ptype line.

[txtwister78]

Think the High-Res will sort all of this out but as others have mentioned, it's still a degree here or there difference the further north you go and as long as you have some convective precip involved, sleet could quickly change over to heavy snow somewhere along that corridor. It's just the trends have been a little warmer with the upper levels today so far.

[bubba hotep]

I agree that you can't read too much into individual model runs, but I think the 12z Canadian highlights that those who live on the edge will cash in big time!

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2025010612/138/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

That's the key for me. Someone where the intersection of QPF and good profile is going to cash big. There is a battle between WAA to the SE and CAA above the surface from dome of high pressure over the front range. The CMC may look troublesome but it's grown the area and intensity of snow from it's prior runs. We are starting to tighten up the rain/snow mix ptype line.

Also, if you look at soundings, there isn't much of a warm nose at all. I would expand the snow line SE a fair amount.

[rwfromkansas]

For this initial front today, I feel like it overperformed. Seemed to come in a few hours earlier than originally forecast about 48-72 hours ago, and also, I could have sworn the forecast lows were upper 20's, IMBY near DFW airport it's gone between 22 and 23. OFCL at DFW Is 23 right now.
Feels like 6.

Still about 3 hours until sunrise and I’m at 26F/7WC. Our lowest temp by morning according to models and NWS was 27F/14WC. The front did arrive about an hour early and there’s no clouds present, so it’s optimally cooling.

I have no idea if this front will affect what temp we’ll be at when the system arrives though.

It got down to 25 IMBY by around 11 p.m., which was lower than I expected, so I put on faucet covers. Really didn't think this was supposed to be very cold, but all my focus has been on Thursday. Lol.

My low was 20, so pretty impressive.

[Ntxw]

I agree that you can't read too much into individual model runs, but I think the 12z Canadian highlights that those who live on the edge will cash in big time!

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2025010612/138/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

That's the key for me. Someone where the intersection of QPF and good profile is going to cash big. There is a battle between WAA to the SE and CAA above the surface from dome of high pressure over the front range. The CMC may look troublesome but it's grown the area and intensity of snow from it's prior runs. We are starting to tighten up the rain/snow mix ptype line.

Also, if you look at soundings, there isn't much of a warm nose at all. I would expand the snow line SE a fair amount.

I'm not sure about expanding, but historical systems in the past of these do not have that broad of mixing real estate. In fact they are sharp delineation between rain and snow. It didn't make sense to me to have a 200 hundred mile transition zone (exaggeration), that's more prevalent in shallow cold type events. It's going to tighten even more imo and then we'll watch the shifts.

[rwfromkansas]

Officially 11 inches in Kansas City yesterday... Biggest snowstorm in 60 years and 3rd highest all time

I'm ready to go home and finally reel one down there

Really? You’d think they would have more snow than that. At least IMO. 11” doesn’t really seem like that much for KC. And honestly I thought they were gonna get a lot more than 11”. I was thinking somewhere around 15-18”. I’m not sure the totals verified up there.

From what I read yesterday it's very hard to get truly epic snowfall in Kansas City I guess they always get dry slotted or something. I mean nothing since the 60s has beaten it for a reason I guess

I saw 14" in Topeka so there was a little more elsewhere

I recall KC has long struggled to get blockbuster snows. I think the lows either track too far south or too far north often.

My sister had 15 in Manhattan where K-State is located.

[orangeblood]

Think the High-Res will sort all of this out but as others have mentioned, it's still a degree here or there difference the further north you go and as long as you have some convective precip involved, sleet could quickly change over to heavy snow somewhere along that corridor. It's just the trends have been a little warmer with the upper levels today so far.

Yep, now's the time to begin comparing the Hi Res output with what you're seeing depicted on the Globals. And sure enough, the GFS is almost 4-5 Deg C warmer than the HRRR model Wednesday morning...I like using the 925 mb level as a good benchmark for these comparison and check this out for 12Z Wednesday:

Will have massive implications for forecasters, particularly local tv mets who hug global print outs

GFS


HRRR

[gpsnowman]

Does the fact that the storm gets cranking overnight Wednesday into Thursday alleviate temp concerns? It should be in the 20s while this thing gets going.

[txtwister78]

This is what I was referring to when you talk about drastic changes even on an ensemble when an event is upper level driven (subtle changes can equal big shifts when it's a degree or two difference upstairs). 12z GEFS compared to 6z.

[HockeyTx82]

This is what I was referring to when you talk about drastic changes even on an ensemble when an event is upper level driven. 12z GEFS compared to 6z.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736510400-au1Eseudg9E.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736143200/1736510400-f2P37oORa1o.png

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