Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

There is a high pressure dome coming down as this system is coming out Thursday-Friday. I'm a bit less inclined to worry (for now) that deeply about above as much unless something drastic at 5h changes, and height rises don't happen. As for the surface, it's for the transition zone and accums.

[TropicalTundra]

Shockingly, FWD has removed any mention of rain from the grids for most of DFW.

Also, updated graphic:

https://i.ibb.co/VxhXQhz/image-full2.jpg

NWS does anything to make sure Killeen-Temple-Belton is barely on the cusp of precip lines

[Ralph's Weather]

There is a high pressure dome coming down as this system is coming out Thursday-Friday. I'm a bit less inclined to worry (for now) that deeply about above as much unless something drastic at 5h changes, and height rises don't happen. As for the surface, it's for the transition zone and accums.

I am thinking this. That high could well suppress the transition zone 50mi plus SE. Overall we are talking a cold air mass and >1" QPF event, something big is coming.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think it may help if this low were to close off some, with the center as far south and west as possible, when it does. It appears that will be best for colder surface temps.

[rwfromkansas]

I'd take the 18z NAM every day of the week and Sunday

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2025010618/084/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Hopefuly it moves slightly south, as I am just below the jackpot, but still a great storm for me in NW Tarrant.

[snownado]

I think it may help if this low were to close off some, with the center as far south and west as possible, when it does. It appears that will be best for colder surface temps.

That would help.

Models are now wanting to phase it too quickly with the northern stream, not allowing enough time for the southern stream wave to really dig.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

There is a high pressure dome coming down as this system is coming out Thursday-Friday. I'm a bit less inclined to worry (for now) that deeply about above as much unless something drastic at 5h changes, and height rises don't happen. As for the surface, it's for the transition zone and accums.

I am thinking this. That high could well suppress the transition zone 50mi plus SE. Overall we are talking a cold air mass and >1" QPF event, something big is coming.

You can see it coming down on the eastern side of CO. Not too noticeable but it's there. The setup is there. Even in the paper someone posted earlier, this is the best setup for snow. Even mentioned a -25C 500mb low, which the forecast is for -25C

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, if you want to see something sexy, the Nor'easter that the 12z GFS is showing is enough to make ya blush.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw would that high have any effect on the system?

[Ralph's Weather]

Canadian is going for a much more stout warm nose than any other model, while it is also the coldest model at the surface. I am totally discounting it for now.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW updated forecast has increased snow accumulation from 1-4" now to 2-5"



They are following the trend to higher amounts as they try to forecast this system.

[rwfromkansas]

I think it may help if this low were to close off some, with the center as far south and west as possible, when it does. It appears that will be best for colder surface temps.

That would help.

Models are now wanting to phase it too quickly with the northern stream, not allowing enough time for the southern stream wave to really dig.

When will we know from observations if it's digging more than modeled etc.?

[txtwister78]

The question for DFW isn't whether it's going to snow in my opinion. That's highly likely at this point. The question is how long will it snow as I think it was start out as sleet but as these heavier bands work in and the system begins to round and eject out the tail end of that precip could put down some heavy burst of snow and that is what could dump a quick 2-3 inches and so going with 2-5 seems reasonable even if you start out as sleet depending on how much warm air creeps in from the north as the event begins.

All along the i-35 corrdior seems to be in good shape in terms of heaviest precip so in that aspect you're right where you want to be. Just a question of how fast does this transition.

[snownado]

Look like FWD is going to punt one more shift on any watches...

[WacoWx]

FWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
334 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold weather will continue through the rest of the
workweek, with wind chill values in the teens Tuesday and
Wednesday morning.

- Confidence is high that most of North and Central Texas will see
wintry precipitation Wednesday night through Friday morning.

- Most likely snowfall totals in North Texas are a widespread
2-5" with isolated higher amounts. Central Texas will have
closer to 0-1" with isolated higher amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1228 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025/
/Through Tuesday/

The short term forecast period continues to be very cold but free
of precipitation due to very dry air in place behind Sunday`s
arctic front. Wind chill values this morning were in the single
digits across most of North and Central Texas due to gusty north
winds, but these wind speeds are now beginning to decline as
surface high pressure settles across the Central and Southern
Plains. Strong cold advection will offset warming due to
insolation this afternoon with highs only reaching the mid and
upper 30s for most. It will still be quite cold overnight with
wind chill values in the teens, but our forecast area should
safely remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

Increasing cloud cover will spread in from the west overnight
into tomorrow, and this canopy of cloud cover will also limit
daytime warming with highs in the the 30s again. Some radar
echoes may make an appearance as mid-level saturation increases
in advance of our potent winter storm system later in the
workweek. However, with very dry air in the lowest 12,000 ft, it
will essentially be impossible for any precipitation to fall from
this cloud deck tomorrow as it would immediately sublimate within
the drier sub-cloud airmass.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Another cold night is expected across North and Central Texas
Tuesday, with overnight lows in the 20s and wind chills bottoming
out mainly in the teens. Meanwhile well to our west, a deepening
upper level trough will move into the Desert Southwest/Mexico
region. The southern extent of the trough will become displaced,
amplifying into a closed cut-off low over the Mexican States of
Baja California and Sonora as we head into Wednesday. As this cut-
off low moves east towards the Southern Plains, broad scale lift
and increasing moisture along the low`s eastern flank will allow
for rain and wintry precipitation to occur over West Texas. Over
the course of Wednesday afternoon, this precipitation may bleed
into our western counties. However, said moisture will be in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere with dry air below. Any sprinkle or
flurry that makes it to the surface will be very light and
sporadic, with no accumulations.

By late Wednesday into Thursday, the cut-off low will transition
into an open shortwave trough and move eastward as multiple
upstream disturbances become embedded within the larger-scale
mid-level flow. In response, increasing forcing for ascent will
interact with a northward-moving slug of low-level moisture. This
will allow for increased cloud cover and a blossoming of cold
rain and wintry precipitation chances over the day Thursday.
Cloudy skies and the continuous precipitation should keep us
cooler during the day, and have lowered temperatures to account
for the 50-70% chance that areas along the Red River and west of
I-35 remain below freezing the entire day. Temperatures on
Thursday afternoon have a high bust potential, and may need to be
lowered further in future forecast issuances.

Regarding winter precipitation types, latest forecast soundings
continue to show at or below freezing temperatures throughout most
(if not all) of the atmospheric column, with any elevated warm
nose fairly minute. This scenario is less conducive for freezing
rain and widespread flat/line ice development, and more of a snow
and sleet event. Most recent model guidance generally highlights
the transition from rain and winter precipitation around a
general Canton-Hillsboro-Goldthwaite area. However, this location
and exact precipitation types may still change somewhat in the
coming days as we get into high-resolution model range.

Our confidence in the forecast continues to grow with each day,
as approximately 90% of total ensemble members (GEFS, EPS, and
GEPS) showcasing an impactful winter weather event. As of this
forecast issuance, we have upped most likely snowfall
accumulations across North Texas to a widespread 2-5", with a 30%
chance of up to 8" in isolated locations in western North Texas.
Further south in Central Texas where a cold rain/wintry mix is
more favorable, snowfall totals remain at 0-1" with only 15% of
2+". While overall ice accumulations are not favorable, there is
a chance for an isolated 1/10 of an inch of ice accumulation in
Central Texas. We`ll continue to keep an eye on any increasing
potential in the coming days.

Nonetheless, travel WILL be hazardous early Thursday through
Friday morning due to the above factors. Additionally, any
overnight re-freezing of daytime melting will further deteriorate
road conditions particularly on untreated roads and
bridges/elevated roadways. Make sure to have your winter weather
preparations underway, and keep updated with the forecast.

Conditions should improve Friday afternoon as above-freezing
temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 return and the
precipitation moves east of the region. However, this will need to
be watched as there is a 30-50% chance some areas in North Texas
and the Big Country remain below freezing once again. While sub-
freezing overnights will persist through the weekend, afternoon
high temperatures will gradually warm back into the 40s and 50s by
the end of the weekend. Guidance hints at another cold front just
at the tail end of the long term forecast period, and this will
start to be discussed in more detail over the next week.

Prater

[cheezyWXguy]

18z ICON is another example. Look at the adjustment in snowfall accumulations between one run. This is why in my opinion it's best to go with blends because these are wild swings here still showing up run to run and when you get mixed precip types involved I think that can create a false accumulation output. 12z to current 18z. Also high resolution will do a better job of sorting out where bands of precip setup so these totals won't be as broad.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736521200-Qwrlgf0j3XY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736186400/1736521200-24L5lGCDsPM.png

I disagree, I think the map you posted is depicting totals exclusively for snow. For Dallas proper, for example, the icon depicts over 1” qpf over the course of the storm, of which 0.1” fall before temps fall to freezing. If the remaining >0.9” qpf that does fall below freezing were being lumped in with snow, Dallas’ storm total would be depicted on that map as 9-10”, not 5-6”. I think nw shift and reduction in totals is because it’s depicting more precip as “not snow” this run.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw would that high have any effect on the system?

It is a fresh cold source into the overall setup. Not necessarily make anything colder per say, but maintains the cold at least so it's not old cold that's been sitting around, and especially above the surface.

[orangeblood]

18Z RDPS QPF is concerning!

[snownado]

18z ICON is another example. Look at the adjustment in snowfall accumulations between one run. This is why in my opinion it's best to go with blends because these are wild swings here still showing up run to run and when you get mixed precip types involved I think that can create a false accumulation output. 12z to current 18z. Also high resolution will do a better job of sorting out where bands of precip setup so these totals won't be as broad.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736521200-Qwrlgf0j3XY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736186400/1736521200-24L5lGCDsPM.png

I disagree, I think the map you posted is depicting totals exclusively for snow. For Dallas proper, for example, the icon depicts over 1” qpf over the course of the storm, of which 0.1” fall before temps fall to freezing. If the remaining >0.9” qpf that does fall below freezing were being lumped in with snow, Dallas’ storm total would be depicted on that map as 9-10”, not 5-6”. I think nw shift and reduction in totals is because it’s depicting more precip as “not snow” this run.

For the 18z ICON, it's both warmer and drier.

But it's always been an unreliably wonky model, so...

[bohai]

TeamPlayersBlue, yeah, cold rain is the worst. I'd rather be 100 degrees and dry than have upper 30s and cold rain, lol, but we are used to it.

Apparently, you don't live in an area of Texas or wherever that is still in extreme or exceptional drought. We will take moisture any way we can get.