Texas Winter 2024-2025

[snownado]

18Z RDPS QPF is wild!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/scentus/total_precip_inch/1736186400/1736488800-LftXFGafGNE.png

Wothout seeing it (yet), I'd bet good money it's also warmer with even more mixing into DFW.

[HockeyTx82]

You're in a great spot, the sweet spot of high QPF and freezing temps, and the NAM is now aligning with the Euro.

I think Denton County might be able to cash in pretty good too.

I just seen a report that said Denton County will be in a doughnut hole and any snow will pass East and West of the county.

You bite your tongue sir!!!!

[HockeyTx82]

I'd take the 18z NAM every day of the week and Sunday

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2025010618/084/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

My heart be still

[snownado]

18z GFS continues warmer/NW trend. Much more rain than snow for DFW.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z ICON is another example. Look at the adjustment in snowfall accumulations between one run. This is why in my opinion it's best to go with blends because these are wild swings here still showing up run to run and when you get mixed precip types involved I think that can create a false accumulation output. 12z to current 18z. Also high resolution will do a better job of sorting out where bands of precip setup so these totals won't be as broad.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736521200-Qwrlgf0j3XY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736186400/1736521200-24L5lGCDsPM.png

I disagree, I think the map you posted is depicting totals exclusively for snow. For Dallas proper, for example, the icon depicts over 1” qpf over the course of the storm, of which 0.1” fall before temps fall to freezing. If the remaining >0.9” qpf that does fall below freezing were being lumped in with snow, Dallas’ storm total would be depicted on that map as 9-10”, not 5-6”. I think nw shift and reduction in totals is because it’s depicting more precip as “not snow” this run.

For the 18z ICON, it's both warmer and drier.

But it's always been an unreliably wonky model, so...

Agreed, it is both warmer and drier than the previous run, but it still shows >0.9” qpf falling in sub freezing temps, which would be 9-10” if all of that precip were being included in a 10:1 ratio snow map.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS continues warmer/NW trend. Much more rain than snow for DFW.

It's been trending slower too. Snows, rains, snows, then snows again in the same run!

[orangeblood]

18z ICON is another example. Look at the adjustment in snowfall accumulations between one run. This is why in my opinion it's best to go with blends because these are wild swings here still showing up run to run and when you get mixed precip types involved I think that can create a false accumulation output. 12z to current 18z. Also high resolution will do a better job of sorting out where bands of precip setup so these totals won't be as broad.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736521200-Qwrlgf0j3XY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736186400/1736521200-24L5lGCDsPM.png

I disagree, I think the map you posted is depicting totals exclusively for snow. For Dallas proper, for example, the icon depicts over 1” qpf over the course of the storm, of which 0.1” fall before temps fall to freezing. If the remaining >0.9” qpf that does fall below freezing were being lumped in with snow, Dallas’ storm total would be depicted on that map as 9-10”, not 5-6”. I think nw shift and reduction in totals is because it’s depicting more precip as “not snow” this run.

For the 18z ICON, it's both warmer and drier.

But it's always been an unreliably wonky model, so...

It’s the worst performing global by a long shot, well documented in this forum over the years

[orangeblood]

18z ICON is another example. Look at the adjustment in snowfall accumulations between one run. This is why in my opinion it's best to go with blends because these are wild swings here still showing up run to run and when you get mixed precip types involved I think that can create a false accumulation output. 12z to current 18z. Also high resolution will do a better job of sorting out where bands of precip setup so these totals won't be as broad.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736521200-Qwrlgf0j3XY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736186400/1736521200-24L5lGCDsPM.png

I disagree, I think the map you posted is depicting totals exclusively for snow. For Dallas proper, for example, the icon depicts over 1” qpf over the course of the storm, of which 0.1” fall before temps fall to freezing. If the remaining >0.9” qpf that does fall below freezing were being lumped in with snow, Dallas’ storm total would be depicted on that map as 9-10”, not 5-6”. I think nw shift and reduction in totals is because it’s depicting more precip as “not snow” this run.

For the 18z ICON, it's both warmer and drier.

But it's always been an unreliably wonky model, so...

It’s the worst performing global by a long shot, well documented in this forum over the years

[snownado]

Really hoping the 00z runs come through with SE/Cooler shift.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS continues warmer/NW trend. Much more rain than snow for DFW.

Basically, no winter weather south of I20 on this run.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, I guess Monday won't provide clarity. On to Tuesday. Lol. Darn it. Stinking GFS hopefully is too warm.

[snownado]

Kind of funny that now the EURO is on the SE edge of all the guidance (and even its output is questionable with sleet contamination).

[Stratton23]

bohai i understand west and southwest texas needs it, where I live, I really dont need any more rain, i love the rain, but cold rain just makes everything miserable

[Ntxw]

Well, I guess Monday won't provide clarity. On to Tuesday. Lol. Darn it. Stinking GFS hopefully is too warm.

I think we have a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen. We are in the phase the days before once we are certain it will happen, now the argument is over how much and who is the winner.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If you guys dont mind, I'm going to take a break to research and make a horrible prediction for the snow event we have coming this evening. Expected 4-6" here, but honestly i think we get much less than that. Not seeing much upslope flow for us, but what do i know!

[txtwister78]

18z ICON is another example. Look at the adjustment in snowfall accumulations between one run. This is why in my opinion it's best to go with blends because these are wild swings here still showing up run to run and when you get mixed precip types involved I think that can create a false accumulation output. 12z to current 18z. Also high resolution will do a better job of sorting out where bands of precip setup so these totals won't be as broad.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736521200-Qwrlgf0j3XY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736186400/1736521200-24L5lGCDsPM.png

I disagree, I think the map you posted is depicting totals exclusively for snow. For Dallas proper, for example, the icon depicts over 1” qpf over the course of the storm, of which 0.1” fall before temps fall to freezing. If the remaining >0.9” qpf that does fall below freezing were being lumped in with snow, Dallas’ storm total would be depicted on that map as 9-10”, not 5-6”. I think nw shift and reduction in totals is because it’s depicting more precip as “not snow” this run.

I don't disagree with that and that was my main point about the various precip types. You can still get snow above freezing (surface temps) btw so it's not about needing temps to get below freezing, but I used the euro as an example the other day in that on weatherbell (not sure if it does this on the other sites) it may depict sleet as the preciptation type but it converts that to accumulated snowfall and that's why you can't tell on some of these model outputs what isn't snow unless you go look at the details (850mb/thickness values etc at the time of the precip). It sure isn't rain at that point up there regardless of how much QPF you have so that was my point in reference to the sleet also getting mixed into the accumulation output. Heck even if your QPF varied that much run to run and thus impacted totals that way, it would still be a wild model swing. I don't think we disagree unless I'm reading your take differently?

[txtwister78]

I disagree, I think the map you posted is depicting totals exclusively for snow. For Dallas proper, for example, the icon depicts over 1” qpf over the course of the storm, of which 0.1” fall before temps fall to freezing. If the remaining >0.9” qpf that does fall below freezing were being lumped in with snow, Dallas’ storm total would be depicted on that map as 9-10”, not 5-6”. I think nw shift and reduction in totals is because it’s depicting more precip as “not snow” this run.

For the 18z ICON, it's both warmer and drier.

But it's always been an unreliably wonky model, so...

It’s the worst performing global by a long shot, well documented in this forum over the years

Actually did well during 2021 before the rest of the globals even sniffed cold was coming (especially the "King"). It has its moments, but it was on to that event early on if I recall.

[orangeblood]

For the 18z ICON, it's both warmer and drier.

But it's always been an unreliably wonky model, so...

It’s the worst performing global by a long shot, well documented in this forum over the years

Actually did well during 2021 before the rest of the globals even sniffed cold was coming (especially the "King"). It has its moments, but it was on to that event early on if I recall.

Yes, it did well with temps with that one but outside of that event, we’ve been burned so many times by that model even more so than the GFS

[DallasAg]

Look like FWD is going to punt one more shift on any watches...

Winter Weather Advisories hoisted for El Paso and out into Southern NM starting Tuesday evening, so the first ones are on the board! Maybe this time tomorrow?

[txtwister78]

18z RGEM shows exactly why the finale may end up being where the big transition occurs into DFW putting down several inches before precip shuts off. Keeps everything mostly sleet though throught most of the event and all snow just NW