Texas Winter 2024-2025

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snownado
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3261 Postby snownado » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:23 pm

The RGEM at least isn't worse.

Not any better, but the bleeding has at least a
stopped.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3262 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:24 pm

Gotwood wrote:Damn ICON says no snow for DFW lol


Total trainwreck for everyone south of I20. The RGEM and NAM look much better lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3263 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:26 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Gotwood wrote:Damn ICON says no snow for DFW lol


Total trainwreck for everyone south of I20. The RGEM and NAM look much better lol


It's very little snow for much anyone except the northeastern few rows of counties. Even the west side dropped amounts. Very mild run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3264 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:27 pm

Wait, why is ICON trending weaker with the trough?

Image
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3265 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:32 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Wait, why is ICON trending weaker with the trough?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif


Not a full phase, hangs the southern trough in the Baja longer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3266 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Wait, why is ICON trending weaker with the trough?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif


Not a full phase, hangs the southern trough in the Baja longer.

Is ICON underestimating the trough?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3267 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:32 pm

Maybe it's renewing it's eyewall :rofl:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3268 Postby snownado » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:34 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Wait, why is ICON trending weaker with the trough?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif


Not a full phase, hangs the southern trough in the Baja longer.


Also looks like it gets sheared apart.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3269 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:36 pm

The coastal low with water temps just off the coast in the gulf in the low 70's (lol) is surging warmer air off the gulf into a setup that is entirely driven by the upper levels. That's basically why this is so west Texas driven. Further west you go away from that warm moisture, better odds for all snow. In the middle and further north you have a fight but because that flow off the gulf is still surging north and so you get more mixed precipitation. Unless that changes pretty quickly this is probably what you're going to get with the NAM and RGEM trending warmer with time.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3270 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:37 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Maybe it's renewing it's eyewall :rofl:


At this point that actually sounds good.

This is exactly what is happening! Let’s review in the morning.

:spam: :cold: :lol: :froze: :) :grrr:
Last edited by Brandon8181 on Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3271 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Wait, why is ICON trending weaker with the trough?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif


The s/w crashing down the Rockies is slower, so it's not phasing with the Baja Low as energetically as previous runs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3272 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:38 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Wait, why is ICON trending weaker with the trough?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcmk.gif

I’ve generally been more of a fan of the icon than most on this board for a while now, but it’s starting to take a hit on credibility in my view. The fact that it’s still seeing variations in the 500mb pattern like this so close to the event tells me it’s struggling. These changes have resultant impacts on its depictions of WAA, which I’m not convinced it has a good handling on to begin with.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3273 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:41 pm

The 0z GFS begins, what will it do?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3274 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:42 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The 0z GFS begins, what will it do?


Whatever it wants. It's just a computer.

My gut tells me it's going to happen. My weather rock is cold therefore we will have snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3275 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:43 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 0z GFS begins, what will it do?


Whatever it wants. It's just a computer.

My gut tells me it's going to happen. My weather rock is cold therefore we will have snow.

I know it's just a computer model, but the main question is if it will keep trending north like that ICON
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3276 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:45 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 0z GFS begins, what will it do?


Whatever it wants. It's just a computer.

My gut tells me it's going to happen. My weather rock is cold therefore we will have snow.

I know it's just a computer model, but the main question is if it will keep trending north like that ICON


The sun will rise and set tomorrow. It will snow where the Almighty wants it to, no computer will ever convince Mother Nature otherwise.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3277 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:45 pm

Already a slight jump to the SW

Image
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXcqJ.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3278 Postby Harp.1 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:47 pm

Are you guys getting ICONNED? And Nammed? Don’t worry, you’ll get your snow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3279 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:50 pm

We may not even get above freezing before the storm hits :froze:
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#neversummer

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3280 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:51 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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