Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Harp.1
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3441 Postby Harp.1 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:30 pm

CMC very cold at hour 240 fwiw
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3442 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:40 pm

Minor changes on the 12z Euro with a bump in QPF across DFW. Temp swings a degree or two in either direction will make or break this storm for some.

Image

Image
Last edited by bubba hotep on Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3443 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:41 pm

orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z Canadian is pretty similar to the RGEM. Also, the 12z GFS is closer to the Euro/Canadian camp than it is to the NAM. I would say the 12z NAM is a big outlier and that subtle timing differences b/w the Euro, Canadian, and GFS have significant impacts on the outcome of the winter storm. I think there is plenty of time for this to trend either way, esp. if you toss the 12z NAM.


Yep, the sounding really creates a much better picture of how much of a close call this is. If the qpf is there, you're talking the difference b/w 2-3 and 8-10 inches of snow.


Are we jumping off a cliff now or is it too soon and we could see a complete 180 at +24?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3444 Postby snownado » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:42 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Hopping in here for a rare post, but while the NAM runs are concerning I wouldn't put all of my stock into it. We've had several events where the NAM deviated significantly from what happened in reality as it started to show the event in range. The model is really best at about 36 hours because for some reason, its solutions tend to diverge more chaotically as it gets farther away in simulation time from its initialization time. In modeling, something like a difference in a microphysics parameterization scheme can cause wildly different results when the overall physics are largely showing the same solution, and for the NAM's case, it is showing the track and speed of the low relatively consistent with the global models and even some of the other mesoscale models like the RGEM. Remember, when dealing with these events it's all about trends. As long as ensembles and other short range models show precipitation, there's reason to build trust that an event is possible, even if the incoming shortwave near Baja california is starting to indicate there will be overall a warmer airmass creeping into the plains which will decrease snow likelihood south of the red river. But, that being said, if the 12z NAM solution appears on the HRRR by tomorrow morning and starts to creep into ensembles more and more as the next 24 hours happens, I'd start to hit the panic button. However, there's no reason to do that yet--and the meteorologists at the local NWS offices around North Texas seem to agree.


Didn't the NAM do this very thing on Feb 2021, HRRR and RGEM nailed the heavy precip and even the second disturbance, NAM got it at +24 mor or less.


Fair point.

People seem to forget that as memorable as Feb. 2021 was in terms of how extreme the cold was, how long the extreme cold lasted and snowcover longevity, it also busted significantly snowfall-wise for N. Texas, and the writing was also on the wall about 2 days out too.
Last edited by snownado on Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3445 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:49 pm

snownado wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Hopping in here for a rare post, but while the NAM runs are concerning I wouldn't put all of my stock into it. We've had several events where the NAM deviated significantly from what happened in reality as it started to show the event in range. The model is really best at about 36 hours because for some reason, its solutions tend to diverge more chaotically as it gets farther away in simulation time from its initialization time. In modeling, something like a difference in a microphysics parameterization scheme can cause wildly different results when the overall physics are largely showing the same solution, and for the NAM's case, it is showing the track and speed of the low relatively consistent with the global models and even some of the other mesoscale models like the RGEM. Remember, when dealing with these events it's all about trends. As long as ensembles and other short range models show precipitation, there's reason to build trust that an event is possible, even if the incoming shortwave near Baja california is starting to indicate there will be overall a warmer airmass creeping into the plains which will decrease snow likelihood south of the red river. But, that being said, if the 12z NAM solution appears on the HRRR by tomorrow morning and starts to creep into ensembles more and more as the next 24 hours happens, I'd start to hit the panic button. However, there's no reason to do that yet--and the meteorologists at the local NWS offices around North Texas seem to agree.


Didn't the NAM do this very thing on Feb 2021, HRRR and RGEM nailed the heavy precip and even the second disturbance, NAM got it at +24 mor or less.


Fair point.

People seem to forget that as memorable as Feb. 2021 was in terms of how extreme the cold was, how long the extrene cold lasted and snowcover longevity, it also busted significantly snowfall-wise for N. Texas, and the writing was also on the wall about 2 days out too.


North Texas is large, the snowfall amounts didn’t bust in 2021 for Wichita Falls or the Arklatex.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3446 Postby losf1981 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:50 pm

wxman22 wrote:
snownado wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Didn't the NAM do this very thing on Feb 2021, HRRR and RGEM nailed the heavy precip and even the second disturbance, NAM got it at +24 mor or less.


Fair point.

People seem to forget that as memorable as Feb. 2021 was in terms of how extreme the cold was, how long the extrene cold lasted and snowcover longevity, it also busted significantly snowfall-wise for N. Texas, and the writing was also on the wall about 2 days out too.


North Texas is large, the snowfall amounts didn’t bust in 2021 for Wichita Falls or the Arklatex.


don't like the 12Z euro for WF wxman22 :grr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3447 Postby GeauxTigers » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:52 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z Canadian is pretty similar to the RGEM. Also, the 12z GFS is closer to the Euro/Canadian camp than it is to the NAM. I would say the 12z NAM is a big outlier and that subtle timing differences b/w the Euro, Canadian, and GFS have significant impacts on the outcome of the winter storm. I think there is plenty of time for this to trend either way, esp. if you toss the 12z NAM.


Yep, the sounding really creates a much better picture of how much of a close call this is. If the qpf is there, you're talking the difference b/w 2-3 and 8-10 inches of snow.


Are we jumping off a cliff now or is it too soon and we could see a complete 180 at +24?



Yea, kina sounds like we are all jumping off the cliff due to latest turn of events. I'm on edge of Denton/Grayson counties in N TX and at this point I'm not sure even this area gets much. Seems can't trust anything right now, so will just wait and see.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3448 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:52 pm

wxman22 wrote:
snownado wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Didn't the NAM do this very thing on Feb 2021, HRRR and RGEM nailed the heavy precip and even the second disturbance, NAM got it at +24 mor or less.


Fair point.

People seem to forget that as memorable as Feb. 2021 was in terms of how extreme the cold was, how long the extrene cold lasted and snowcover longevity, it also busted significantly snowfall-wise for N. Texas, and the writing was also on the wall about 2 days out too.


North Texas is large, the snowfall amounts didn’t bust in 2021 for Wichita Falls or the Arklatex.

Good point, and the main reason for the bust in the dfw area was that the second storm didn’t really pan out. I think the first one slightly underperformed but was generally within expectations.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3449 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:53 pm

losf1981 wrote:
wxman22 wrote:
snownado wrote:
Fair point.

People seem to forget that as memorable as Feb. 2021 was in terms of how extreme the cold was, how long the extrene cold lasted and snowcover longevity, it also busted significantly snowfall-wise for N. Texas, and the writing was also on the wall about 2 days out too.


North Texas is large, the snowfall amounts didn’t bust in 2021 for Wichita Falls or the Arklatex.


don't like the 12Z euro for WF wxman22 :grr:


Yep it cut the qpf quite a bit. Crossing fingers for good trends in the mesoscale models today lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3450 Postby BradKingK » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:54 pm

snownado wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Hopping in here for a rare post, but while the NAM runs are concerning I wouldn't put all of my stock into it. We've had several events where the NAM deviated significantly from what happened in reality as it started to show the event in range. The model is really best at about 36 hours because for some reason, its solutions tend to diverge more chaotically as it gets farther away in simulation time from its initialization time. In modeling, something like a difference in a microphysics parameterization scheme can cause wildly different results when the overall physics are largely showing the same solution, and for the NAM's case, it is showing the track and speed of the low relatively consistent with the global models and even some of the other mesoscale models like the RGEM. Remember, when dealing with these events it's all about trends. As long as ensembles and other short range models show precipitation, there's reason to build trust that an event is possible, even if the incoming shortwave near Baja california is starting to indicate there will be overall a warmer airmass creeping into the plains which will decrease snow likelihood south of the red river. But, that being said, if the 12z NAM solution appears on the HRRR by tomorrow morning and starts to creep into ensembles more and more as the next 24 hours happens, I'd start to hit the panic button. However, there's no reason to do that yet--and the meteorologists at the local NWS offices around North Texas seem to agree.


Didn't the NAM do this very thing on Feb 2021, HRRR and RGEM nailed the heavy precip and even the second disturbance, NAM got it at +24 mor or less.


Fair point.

People seem to forget that as memorable as Feb. 2021 was in terms of how extreme the cold was, how long the extrene cold lasted and snowcover longevity, it also busted significantly snowfall-wise for N. Texas, and the writing was also on the wall about 2 days out too.


Yes, I remember thinking about heading up to Dallas area just to check out the big snow since we were supposed to only get a dusting here in Tyler. At my house, we received about 12 inches total and Dallas only got a fraction of what was forecast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3451 Postby snownado » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:55 pm

wxman22 wrote:
snownado wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Didn't the NAM do this very thing on Feb 2021, HRRR and RGEM nailed the heavy precip and even the second disturbance, NAM got it at +24 mor or less.


Fair point.

People seem to forget that as memorable as Feb. 2021 was in terms of how extreme the cold was, how long the extrene cold lasted and snowcover longevity, it also busted significantly snowfall-wise for N. Texas, and the writing was also on the wall about 2 days out too.


North Texas is large, the snowfall amounts didn’t bust in 2021 for Wichita Falls or the Arklatex.


Not to be "that guy," but colloquially, North Texas generally refers to the greater DFW area / Texoma...

I suppose in some contexts, Wichita Falls is a far-reaching extension of the region, but I don't know of any context where the Arklatex has ever been included as part of "North Texas"
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3452 Postby Quixotic » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:59 pm

A good example of listening to the NWS. They knew something before we did.

I want to talk about the coastal low. When every model was pretty much in agreement, we had a wonky run (don’t remember the model think it was the euro) that really dropped qpf. What was prominent was the coastal low. I seem to remember the 2004 Christmas Miracle kept the rest of state dry as a bone. Now I know that was 20 years ago and every event is different but this was probably the first sign of our event not being a record breaking one.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3453 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:00 pm

I'm ready for some overcast skies to go along with cold. At least have a snowy feel and look.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3454 Postby Tejas89 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:11 pm

Wasn’t it Harold Taft who joked “don’t predict snow in north Texas until you see it falling?”

This feels like one of those times.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3455 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:19 pm

It was definitely a busted 2nd storm for DFW, but those in the path of the 2nd storm got 3-4” on top of what they got in 1st system. I got 5” from first, and maybe an inch out of the second
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3456 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:20 pm

In the Tyler area it is clear that we will have the precip but temps are on the razors edge between mostly cold rain and big snow. I don't see much ice out of this.
For us we will likely oscillate between rain sleet and snow. Thu night it goes all snow. If we get early precip onset then could start as snow Wed night into early Thu but that seems less likely to happen.
I expect something in the 1 to 3 inch range of mixed accumulations. With a much a bust of nothing but rain and sleet possible. Also a boom potential of a 6" snow if WAA is more limited.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3457 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:21 pm

For Lindale in 2021, I got 8" from 1st and 4" of powder from second.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3458 Postby Fifty Rock » Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:21 pm

Storm 2K needs a rehab page with the ability to prescribe Xanax and pass out Kleenex tissue’s
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3459 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:22 pm

Tejas89 wrote:Wasn’t it Harold Taft who joked “don’t predict snow in north Texas until you see it falling?”

This feels like one of those times.


Oh I've become like that here given the recent few years :lol:

When I went to KC was probably the only guarantee I felt like
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3460 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jan 07, 2025 1:26 pm

Even with all the pretty models and possibilities, I said from the start the best we may see is 3-5” which according to NWS FTW is right there with their forecast. Now those higher totals will be north of 820, so in the immediate DFW metro area 2-4” range is acceptable.
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