Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Ntxw thanks haha, even if it doesn’t stick, this could be one of those surprises down south if the surface low can wrap pull down enough cold air, kinda seems like the hrrr has a more expansive and backbuilding precipitation shield

[Ntxw]

Ntxw thanks haha, even if it doesn’t stick, this could be one of those surprises down south if the surface low can wrap pull down enough cold air, kinda seems like the hrrr has a more expansive and backbuilding precipitation shield

Yeah the backside when the incoming height rises and new cold comes in 850mb front, also where convection is high, some down there might see something.

[MSUDawg]

Rooting for those maps with you as I'm at the south east most point of Denton County...

6z HRRR kind of looks like the 03z RAP run from earlier.

They're both without question all snow for Collin/Denton Counties and very EURO-esque...

Still plenty more snow/precipitation beyond this time too...

https://i.ibb.co/wRt8YBJ/Screenshot-20250108-015034.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/GtLHwhV/Screenshot-20250108-015114.jpg

[Ntxw]

WPC discussion tonight (looks like they re-used some wording) but added on the latest guidance into it. Interesting read from the overnight players.

Snippet

For many this will be a very
impactful snowfall event and the first winter storm of the season
for areas such as Dallas- Fort Worth north and east through the
Ozarks and into the Memphis and Nashville metro areas. Potential
forecasting challenges include banding potential on the northern
and northwest side of the low increased by strong mid-level fgen
and isentropic ascent through the DGZ. This may lead to mesoscale
banding that will become more notable once inside the full suite of
CAMs (most likely by the 12z cycle today). This is particularly a
concern for north-central TX and OK on D1 where overall guidance
had recently trended down in amounts. For the DFW metro region,
upper-end amounts have increased as some ensemble members
(particularly the ECENS) pick up on this banding potential which
allows for mixed precip to quickly change to heavy snow Thursday
night, with the grand ensembles 75th percentile up to 9 inches.
Given the mesoscale nature of these snowbands, conditions will
likely drastically change over the course of a tens of miles, with
the heaviest snow north-northwest and lesser amounts to the south.

That 850mb front is worth watching.

[TexasF6]

The moisture is early, just as I suspected it would be. Perhaps not hitting the ground yet, but it's visible on the texmesonet.org. My ProMets, is there a push of cold air coming or not this time? Thanks as always!

[Ntxw]

Newest RAP ups the game. As the 850s front comes in, the precip backbuilds and banding occurs as noted by the discussion above. At that point it will be very heavy snowfall, cold aloft and training of qpf. That really adds up the totals, the front end was bonus for those who get it.

Texarkana and Little Rock are now under winter storm warnings. FW probably will soon here in the early morning update.

[Tammie]

Winter Storm Warning for Cooke, Grayson, Fannin, Lamar, Wise, Denton, Collin, Hunt, Delta, Hopkins, Parker, Tarrant, Dallas and Rockwall County until 12:00pm Friday.

[Ntxw]

Winter Storm Warning for Cooke, Grayson, Fannin, Lamar, Wise, Denton, Collin, Hunt, Delta, Hopkins, Parker, Tarrant, Dallas and Rockwall County until 12:00pm Friday.

The wording is 2-4" with potential for 8" in banding. That's quite a gap and notes the uncertainty. I think there is potential for something special to happen for someone in the northeastern part of the state. Noted a few days ago where the profile is cold enough and highest qpf meets is very high risk and reward. We've been too focused on the front end, the dynamics at play on the backend now with the incoming height rises (*thank you phase*) is something unseen prior but is becoming front and center.

[Tammie]

Winter Storm Warning for Cooke, Grayson, Fannin, Lamar, Wise, Denton, Collin, Hunt, Delta, Hopkins, Parker, Tarrant, Dallas and Rockwall County until 12:00pm Friday.

The wording is 2-4" with potential for 8" in banding. That's quite a gap and notes the uncertainty. I think there is potential for something special to happen for someone in the northeastern part of the state. Noted a few days ago where the profile is cold enough and highest qpf meets is very high risk and reward. We've been too focused on the front end, the dynamics at play on the backend now with the incoming height rises (*thank you phase*) is something unseen prior but is becoming front and center.

We’re in Sherman, and it seems we’ve been in the “sweet spot” consistently on the models for over a week. That makes me nervous… dry slots always seem to find us. That being said, I’m a little more confident looking at Oklahoma’s WSWarning heading due north of us. I’d be ecstatic with 2-4 inches!

[Ntxw]

Discussion from FW.

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

Light wintry precipitation will likely be ongoing across parts of
western North Texas early Thursday morning, but a rapid expansion
eastward and an increase in intensity is expected through the late
morning hours. This will be in response to increasing deep layer
isentropic ascent as strong height falls spread into North Texas
through midday. As the lower half of the atmosphere quickly cools
and saturates, precipitation rates will increase.
Temperatures are expected to be below freezing during the morning
hours and precipitation type will likely initially be a mix of snow
and sleet with some light freezing rain across our Central TX
counties. As we head into midday Thursday, surface temperatures will
climb into the mid 30s and would support primarily rain south of I-
20 where low level thermal profile warm above freezing in the strong
southerly flow regime. A mix of rain and snow is likely farther
north from the Metroplex north toward the Red River.
Snowfall accumulations are generally expected to be light through
the early afternoon given the combination of a rain/snow mix and
surface temperatures above freezing, so impacts may initially be
minimal.

Things will get more interesting during the late afternoon and
particularly Thursday evening when the main upper trough begins to
eject eastward. Strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread
the region and mid level isentropic ascent within the 700-500 mb
layer will be aided by 70 kt of flow within a completely saturated
layer. Most, if not all of the guidance shows a reinvigoration of
precipitation production initially across our northwest counties,
then extending along and north of the I-20 corridor into the Red
River and Arklatex during the late evening. This appears to be
tied to an intense band of mid level frontogenesis between 700-400
mb. An examination of the frontal circulation within both the GFS
and ECMWF guidance indicates the presence of weak stability which
develops around 21Z Thursday and continues through around 3Z
Friday. The orientation of this strong frontogentic forcing in
line with very strong deep layer shear and weak stability suggests
the potential for one or more intense bands of snowfall to occur
during this time. While these mesoscale features are extremely
difficult to pin down with much advance notice, the conditions
appear to be setting up for at least some potential for a few
areas to pick up much more snow than the current broader based
amounts being forecast. This is also supported by the ECMWF
extreme forecast index which highlights an area just north of the
Metroplex toward the Paris area as a potential area for
significant snowfall. We`ll still maintain a general forecast of 2
to 4 inches in this area, however a reasonable higher end total
within any banded precipitation could top 6 to 9 inches. With the
later onset of frozen precipitation Thursday evening into the
nighttime hours, more of this is likely to impact roads and travel
during the overnight hours into early Friday morning when
temperatures will be in the upper 20s. Precipitation will taper
off very quickly late Thursday night into early Friday morning
with Friday being a cold and cloudy day. Skies will clear by
Friday evening with temperatures dropping back into the low 20s
Friday night areawide. A slow warmup is expected through the
weekend with quiet weather expected into early next week.

Given the potential impactful snowfall accumulations across the
Metroplex and increasing potential for isolated banded heavy snow
north and northeast of the Metroplex, we`ve opted to upgrade a
portion of the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. The
remaining areas will be assessed further today for potential
inclusion or upgrade to a winter weather advisory for lighter
amounts.

Dunn

[TropicalTundra]

Still seeing more virga in SA/Kerrville, kinda impressive it’s depicted as snow which would mean the column is frozen even down there

[Ralph's Weather]

Again this morning for the Tyler area, there is a massive range of outcomes from mostly rain with some mix to a foot of snow. As expected hires models show a colder profile. Again models print out 1-2" QPF area wide. I still do not see much freezing rain with this though there will be some. Areas where sleet is the main type are looking at 1-4" accumulations (say maybe areas from Hillsboro to Carthage up to maybe Tyler/Longview). A more even mix of sleet and snow would be like 4-8" (maybe Cleburne to Longview type areas). The main snow band will be a general 6-10" with some over a foot (thinking I-30 is a good bet).

[Gotwood]

I don’t feel as confident for my area supposed to be 24 IMBY instead it’s 28 big difference praying for clouds today to keep from heating too much.

[WacoWx]

Can anyone provide me a dew point for Thursday night’ish in Dallas? That low of 34 on noaa has me really concerned.

[Ralph's Weather]

I don’t feel as confident for my area supposed to be 24 IMBY instead it’s 28 big difference praying for clouds today to keep from heating too much.

Eh I would not be that concerned, that is due to moisture ahead of the trough causing more cloud coverage than expected overnight. It is 24 on the N side of Weatherford right now.

[Gotwood]

I don’t feel as confident for my area supposed to be 24 IMBY instead it’s 28 big difference praying for clouds today to keep from heating too much.

Eh I would not be that concerned, that is due to moisture ahead of the trough causing more cloud coverage than expected overnight. It is 24 on the N side of Weatherford right now.

Yeah would be my luck to miss 6 inches of snow by 20 miles lol

[gpsnowman]

I would be a little more comfortable if the southern row of counties were included in the WSW. Always on the edge.

[Ralph's Weather]

I don’t feel as confident for my area supposed to be 24 IMBY instead it’s 28 big difference praying for clouds today to keep from heating too much.

Eh I would not be that concerned, that is due to moisture ahead of the trough causing more cloud coverage than expected overnight. It is 24 on the N side of Weatherford right now.

Yeah would be my luck to miss 6 inches of snow by 20 miles lol

They just have less clouds than you, nothing that affects tomorrow.

[gboudx]

From Steve McCauley:

I am sorry to report I have not seen much new data today. I am running WAY behind in my "real" job at the university, so I am trying to play catch-up now. I can't believe it is already midnight. Of all the times to be running behind.
I will attempt to get a detailed map drawn by tomorrow, but the bottom line is a wintry mix is still expected on Thursday, lasting on and off (mostly on) through Friday morning. Heaviest snow totals will be NE of the Metroplex, but we will see snow, too, along with some freezing rain and sleet as well as just cold rain from time to time.

There will be slick roads and highways, but then temperatures creep above freezing, and everything starts to melt. And then temps drop back to below freeezing, and we ice up again. What a nightmare trying to predict when and where this occurs.
Amounts of each precipitation type is very difficult to draw on a map because every precip type will fall in north Texas, but I will try to get that map done tomorrow after class.
But for now, back to burning the midnight oil. BIG day tomorrow in class.

[HockeyTx82]

Evan (Fox 4) just said everything will melt on the roads and he could pick any model and make is daytime temps higher.

Really playing it down.

So when's the next chance?