Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Gotwood]

Did we get another shot of cold this morning? I noticed the winds have picked up from the north again.

[Portastorm]

Saw a report of some sleet falling about 40 miles SW of Austin. A few smallish returns on radar down here. Interesting.

[Fifty Rock]

From NWS San Angelo/Abilene region

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 439 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Morning water vapor imagery depicts the upper level low spinning
nearly stationary over northern Baja California. This feature will
be responsible a wide range of weather hazards across Texas on
Thursday and Thursday night. Overall have made no significant
changes to the forecast from the afternoon package. Large scale
forcing for ascent will overspread our area out ahead of the
aforementioned upper low as it swings eastward into northern
Mexico. Precipitation is expected to develop out to our west
across the Lower Trans Pecos and spread eastward across our area
through the morning and afternoon hours. With temperatures warming
above freezing (mid to upper 30s) by the afternoon a cold rain is
expected across most of the area with a mix of rain and snow
showers in the Big Country. As temperatures drop back below
freezing Thursday evening and Thursday night, a wintry mix of
freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible across roughly the
northern two-thirds of our area including the Big Country, Concho
Valley, and northern Edwards Plateau. We still expect minor
accumulations of less than 1 inch of snow and a quarter of inch of
ice across the area resulting in minor impacts. However,
uncertainty remains regarding temperatures on Thursday afternoon
and resultant precipitation type as well of coverage. Some of the
latest high res-model guidance has come in colder and more
aggressive with accumulations of snow and ice then what is
reflected in the forecast. Changes to the forecast are possible
over the next 24 hours as more high res model data becomes
available so please continue to check back for updates. Otherwise,
all precipitation will exit the area by Friday morning. Cool and
dry conditions are expected for the weekend.

[TropicalTundra]

Saw a report of some sleet falling about 40 miles SW of Austin. A few smallish returns on radar down here. Interesting.

Clouds are rolling in over here and radar indicates some light bands of snow. Don’t see any mPing’s though.

[HockeyTx82]

When can we actually dial this in to know if we're going to have a very impactful storm or not? I agree I think temperatures will definitely play a role especially at the surface in terms of how much accumulates.

I think there's alot of expectation that everything will be closed tomorrow, but there's also a lot of talk of well it's too warm the roads will be fine just because snow is on the grass doesn't mean we're closing.

Is there a chance we get a decent uptick once it starts moving over Texas since it's still over the Baja and we get better data?

Or has our fate been set?

[Gotwood]

When can we actually dial this in to know if we're going to have a very impactful storm or not? I agree I think temperatures will definitely play a role especially at the surface in terms of how much accumulates.

I think there's alot of expectation that everything will be closed tomorrow, but there's also a lot of talk of well it's too warm the roads will be fine just because snow is on the grass doesn't mean we're closing.

Is there a chance we get a decent uptick once it starts moving over Texas since it's still over the Baja and we get better data?

Or has our fate been set?

Doesn’t look that way HRRR coming in warmer again with mostly rain to start.

[gpsnowman]

Looks like more virga moving in. Maybe someone will see a rogue flake. The little snowflake that could.

[orangeblood]

Looking over the latest short range guidance and Euro Ens members, WS Warning areas look way underdone with amounts. They’re leaving the door open to increasing them and May need to later today, these latest snow plumes are eye popping at DFW

[Gotwood]

Looking over the latest short range guidance and Euro Ens members, WS Warning areas look way underdone with amounts. They’re leaving the door open to increasing them and May need to later today, these latest snow plumes are eye popping at DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/plume_snow/1736316000/1736316000-9TfUekG5hBA.png

Well the good news is we will know our fate in 24 hours.

[HockeyTx82]

Looking over the latest short range guidance and Euro Ens members, WS Warning areas look way underdone with amounts. They’re leaving the door open to increasing them and May need to later today, these latest snow plumes are eye popping at DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/plume_snow/1736316000/1736316000-9TfUekG5hBA.png

We'll wait someone else just said the hrrr is coming in warmer

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z HRRR looks very reasonable to me. Precip likely starting as a mix of rain, snow, and sleet in DFW tomorrow morning and continuing for much of the day. Then a transition to snow by the evening before it tapers off Friday morning. Right now, I would go with 3-6 inches in DFW with higher totals northeast.

[orangeblood]

Looking over the latest short range guidance and Euro Ens members, WS Warning areas look way underdone with amounts. They’re leaving the door open to increasing them and May need to later today, these latest snow plumes are eye popping at DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/plume_snow/1736316000/1736316000-9TfUekG5hBA.png

We'll wait someone else just said the hrrr is coming in warmer

Obviously what makes this tricky is where do the transition zones set up and for how long, someone is going to hit the jack pot with this and most within WS Warning area should do well. Even if you don’t get snow on the front end, the back end as the upper levels cool is where more of the confidence lies.

[snownado]

Looking over the latest short range guidance and Euro Ens members, WS Warning areas look way underdone with amounts. They’re leaving the door open to increasing them and May need to later today, these latest snow plumes are eye popping at DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/plume_snow/1736316000/1736316000-9TfUekG5hBA.png

We'll wait someone else just said the hrrr is coming in warmer

12z run of the HRRR did come in warmer...

[Tammie]

Looking over the latest short range guidance and Euro Ens members, WS Warning areas look way underdone with amounts. They’re leaving the door open to increasing them and May need to later today, these latest snow plumes are eye popping at DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/plume_snow/1736316000/1736316000-9TfUekG5hBA.png

We'll wait someone else just said the hrrr is coming in warmer

Obviously what makes this tricky is where do the transition zones set up and for how long, someone is going to hit the jack pot with this and most within WS Warning area should do well. Even if you don’t get snow on the front end, the back end as the upper levels cool is where more of the confidence lies.

Is there a timeline yet? Will it start before school starts, or after with early release

[rwfromkansas]

With the later switch probably having school TH so if roads get slick, ugh.

[orangeblood]

We'll wait someone else just said the hrrr is coming in warmer

Obviously what makes this tricky is where do the transition zones set up and for how long, someone is going to hit the jack pot with this and most within WS Warning area should do well. Even if you don’t get snow on the front end, the back end as the upper levels cool is where more of the confidence lies.

Is there a timeline yet? Will it start before school starts, or after with early release

Still way too early to tell, this will likely be a real time/evolving forecast. According to the latest HRRR for the Metroplex, precip breaks out as a rain/sleet mix starting around 7-8am tomorrow morning then lasting thru late afternoon before changing over to all snow from west to east starting around 5-6pm and lasting thru the early morning hours of Friday.

Right now 50% of the QPF is a rain/sleet mix, 50% all snow. Of course, amounts will be predicated on the ratio of the rain/sleet/snow to total QPF and still too early to tell

As the Euro has been telling us for 7 straight days now, someone is going to hit the Jack Pot on the edge of where that snow to rain/sleet line sets up

[Fifty Rock]

I see everyone talking about it being to warm, this is from NWS in West Texas, Abilene/ San Angelo area. It talks about some of the high-res models being colder and more aggressive with accumulations. Probably going to be some now casting with this.

However,
uncertainty remains regarding temperatures on Thursday afternoon
and resultant precipitation type as well of coverage. Some of the
latest high res-model guidance has come in colder and more
aggressive with accumulations of snow and ice then what is
reflected in the forecast. Changes to the forecast are possible
over the next 24 hours as more high res model data becomes
available so please continue to check back for updates. Otherwise,
all precipitation will exit the area by Friday morning. Cool and
dry conditions are expected for the weekend.

[snownado]

A couple of quick observations...

1. FWD's grids don't align with their WSW for 2-4". The grids in DFW proper only call for 1" (maybe 1-2" at most).

2. Aside from those rogue 06z HRRR and 03z RAP runs, most of the guidance thus far is still on the warmer end.

[Gotwood]

A couple of quick observations...

1. FWD's grids don't align with their WSW for 2-4". The grids in DFW proper only call for 1" (maybe 1-2" at most).

2. Aside from those rogue 06z HRRR and 03z RAP runs, most of the guidance thus far is still on the warmer end.

That’s why we should stop watching models my area went from 8 inches to 3 inches in a few hours. That makes me know the models have zero clue.

[cstrunk]

Again this morning for the Tyler area, there is a massive range of outcomes from mostly rain with some mix to a foot of snow. As expected hires models show a colder profile. Again models print out 1-2" QPF area wide. I still do not see much freezing rain with this though there will be some. Areas where sleet is the main type are looking at 1-4" accumulations (say maybe areas from Hillsboro to Carthage up to maybe Tyler/Longview). A more even mix of sleet and snow would be like 4-8" (maybe Cleburne to Longview type areas). The main snow band will be a general 6-10" with some over a foot (thinking I-30 is a good bet).

I hope you're right (for Longview), but the pessimist in me expects more rain and melting with temperatures forecast to hover near or slightly below freezing at worst, and above freezing otherwise. If more models showed better outcomes for the I-20 corridor, I'd have more hope. I think the I-30 corridor to the Red River is the money zone.