Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

Excerpt from the WPC office Heavy Snow Discussion earlier that caught my attention, related to Euro ENS members and this banding potential the OPS are picking up on

For the DFW metro region,
upper-end amounts have increased as some ensemble members
(particularly the ECENS) pick up on this banding potential which
allows for mixed precip to quickly change to heavy snow Thursday
night, with the grand ensembles 75th percentile up to 9 inches.
Given the mesoscale nature of these snowbands, conditions will
likely drastically change over the course of a tens of miles, with
the heaviest snow north-northwest and lesser amounts to the south.

[Iceresistance]

I've seen the last second uptrend from all the models

[gpsnowman]

So what is a good wake up time to catch the start of precip, even if it's just rain? I'm thinking 6.

[WeatherNewbie]

The pretty maps are good for a quick overview. If you can read skewT charts you can much more accurately get an idea of what precip types may actually occur.
PSA to others: models do not depict precip types, that is based on the individual site's algorithm.

I appreciate y'all pointing this out because this is something I was unaware of until a couple of days ago when it was brought up.

Oh, the absolute madness of weather models! It's like a chaotic orchestra where each instrument plays its own tune, leading to a cacophony of confusion. One model predicts a serene snowfall, the other a torrential downpour, and yet another claims it's going to be a sunny day perfect for a picnic. How are we supposed to trust any of them?

that's a bit hyperbolic. no model is predicting a sunny day. all of the models are predicting two things... precipitation and cold weather. it feels like drastically different outcomes because the difference between liquid and frozen is effectively a hard line with a binary result on either side. if the models were coming in between 40 and 43 degrees, no one would be lambasting them for being "so far apart." the margin of error only matters when that 3 degree spread is around 32 degrees.

[Ralph's Weather]

FTW filling in their region with WWA now. I expect West Texas and SHV will fill in their regions shortly with WWAs.

[txtwister78]

While we continue to look at our weather, just saw that the iconic Rose Bowl stadium area is now under a fire evacuation warning. Situation continues to deteriorate out west unfortunately.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw that is true, plus the operational runs do get at least a little more weight given the remarkable consistency in the ensembles, as long as its not brutal cold, the kind of pattern showing up would definitely be favorable for more winter weather perhaps for a larger portion of the state, as usual its always a question of how cold and if we will have any shortwaves to work with

[Ntxw]

So what is a good wake up time to catch the start of precip, even if it's just rain? I'm thinking 6.

6am is a good time 4-5am if you want to watch radar colors out west. But if you're invested get plenty of sleep today/tonight, tomorrow night is all nighter when it's the main show from 6pm to 6am.

[Ralph's Weather]

So what is a good wake up time to catch the start of precip, even if it's just rain? I'm thinking 6.

6am is a good time 4-5am if you want to watch radar colors out west. But if you're invested get plenty of sleep today/tonight, tomorrow night is all nighter when it's the main show from 6pm to 6am.

Sleep is hard to come by when winter weather is threatening TX or when a hurricane is threatening the US. The life of a weather enthusiast.

[Ntxw]

While we continue to look at our weather, just saw that the iconic Rose Bowl stadium area is now under a fire evacuation warning. Situation continues to deteriorate out west unfortunately.

591+ dm ridge offshore and deep low over Baja, that gradient has been horrific for them. Something similar happened to Lahaina, Hawaii with Hurricane Dora and a big high similar location to their northeast.

[txtwister78]

I think we've got two more weeks of winter to watch for before things begin to warm up heading into Feb. Too soon to say if winter is over after that but definitely looks as it stands right now that as we transition we could see one or two more shots before winter takes a break for a bit.

[gpsnowman]

So what is a good wake up time to catch the start of precip, even if it's just rain? I'm thinking 6.

6am is a good time 4-5am if you want to watch radar colors out west. But if you're invested get plenty of sleep today/tonight, tomorrow night is all nighter when it's the main show from 6pm to 6am.

Yeah tomorrow looks fun. Tonight I sleep well.

[TropicalTundra]

MBY is still around 35F, luckily the cloud cover and 10 mph north winds are helping keep temps in place. Hopefully no cold rain tomorrow, not a fan

[txtwister78]

I think we've got two more weeks of winter to watch for before things begin to warm up heading into Feb. Too soon to say if winter is over after that but definitely looks as it stands right now that as we transition we could see one or two more shots before winter takes a break for a bit.

Confidence level next wk decreasing a bit as I thought we would see a better shot of arctic air with a system coming up further south like the CMC/GEPS had been advertising off and on to a lesser degree the GEFS but it appears that air may be headed further east again. We stay cool but nothing earth shattering as we watch the period just beyond that.

[Brandon8181]

So what is a good wake up time to catch the start of precip, even if it's just rain? I'm thinking 6.

6am is a good time 4-5am if you want to watch radar colors out west. But if you're invested get plenty of sleep today/tonight, tomorrow night is all nighter when it's the main show from 6pm to 6am.

Sleep is hard to come by when winter weather is threatening TX or when a hurricane is threatening the US. The life of a weather enthusiast.

So true lol

[Ntxw]

EPS ticked up again. It's about as good as I've seen for our region for that model set. At least since Feb 21 down south/east.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 to be far the ensembles and most op runs were never bullish about anything happening next week, trame frame has always been late month, that looks like a potentially more potent arctic airmass centered more over the central US, might be our best opportunity for widespread winter weather across the entire state

[Ntxw]

EPS ticked up again. It's about as good as I've seen for our region for that model set. At least since Feb 21 down south/east.

Also the cluster is zoning in on Saturday morning temps in the teens and near 20 for the snow/ice fields.

[rwfromkansas]

I think we've got two more weeks of winter to watch for before things begin to warm up heading into Feb. Too soon to say if winter is over after that but definitely looks as it stands right now that as we transition we could see one or two more shots before winter takes a break for a bit.

Confidence level next wk decreasing a bit as I thought we would see a better shot of arctic air with a system coming up further south like the CMC/GEPS had been advertising off and on to a lesser degree the GEFS but it appears that air may be headed further east again. We stay cool but nothing earth shattering as we watch the period just beyond that.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1736337600/1736866800-7dJvQDdmPYM.png

So no -PNA now? Lol

Or is that later.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw that is true, plus the operational runs do get at least a little more weight given the remarkable consistency in the ensembles, as long as its not brutal cold, the kind of pattern showing up would definitely be favorable for more winter weather perhaps for a larger portion of the state, as usual its always a question of how cold and if we will have any shortwaves to work with

Been basing it off analogs, honestly I haven't had time to dissect the deterministic guidance in the long range. Everything points to a deep cold period second half to third of the month. We'll just see long range models hint at it, but more often once you get under 300 hours.