Texas Winter 2024-2025

[bubba hotep]

That was sooooo close for DFW. I should have taken all the years of waiting for a warm nose to erode as gospel and dismissed the higher totals for DFW, lol. I bet on this not being an overly aggressive warm nose in the DFW area, but should have accounted for the thickness. The Euro was the most consistent with the 500mb pattern and the placement of QPF. The American models adjusted QPF NW late in the game and ended up looking ok. In general, most models did well enough on temps to indemnity that the transition zone would be somewhere near DFW. However, pretty much across the board, models were too quick to push the warm nose out of DFW and transition things back to snow.

[bubba hotep]

It looks like the totals are generally in the 1-4" range across DFW. Even the areas that seemingly saw more snow than ice/rain, with upwards of 1.5" of QPF, it appears the actual snow ratios were like 5:1 or even worse (and it rarely gets as bad as that).

Not technically a bust (barely), but these amounts ended up being on the far lower end of forecasts and the storm overall was fairly underwhelming considering not only the hype leading up to the event but also how extremely close this was to being a truly major (even historic) snowstorm.

That said, for those who have been pining for any type of snow and aren't used to this type of weather (I'm a Detroit native, so this does nothing for me excitement-wise), I hope you enjoyed it! Perspective is everything and I do understand any type of snowfall in this part of the country is at a premium.

I'm not sure how to calculate ratios for this one because a lot of that QPF ended up falling as just cold rain in most of DFW. The front end heavy snow was not well forecasted, and the back end transition wasn't either, lol. It was a very tough forecast, and even FWD was upping snow totals late in the game as models trended cooler. They even called for another 2-4" for DFW as late as the evening forecast update, but the warm nose was just too stubborn. Also, dry air might have moved in faster than expected, shutting down precipitation sooner. In the end, the warm nose won, as always.

[Quixotic]

Band coming into FW looks pretty decent.

I wanted to wait up but couldn’t and I got another 1.5” overnight. So, you didn’t bust as far as I’m concerned. 7” is more than I expected. Better than March 2015 and almost Feb 2021.

[Portastorm]

That was sooooo close for DFW. I should have taken all the years of waiting for a warm nose to erode as gospel and dismissed the higher totals for DFW, lol. I bet on this not being an overly aggressive warm nose in the DFW area, but should have accounted for the thickness. The Euro was the most consistent with the 500mb pattern and the placement of QPF. The American models adjusted QPF NW late in the game and ended up looking ok. In general, most models did well enough on temps to indemnity that the transition zone would be somewhere near DFW. However, pretty much across the board, models were too quick to push the warm nose out of DFW and transition things back to snow.

You know, it's tough when you've had a few winters with no or few events like y'all up north. When some of the models are showing headline-grabbing totals, it's hard to NOT get excited. There is a weather weenie in all of us, right?! LOL. At least y'all got something and hopefully there is more to come. And some of you even got more than you thought you'd get. Loved all the photos and Hockey's video feed.

We got about an inch of liquid gold down here but it was truly miserable outside.

[bubba hotep]

Band coming into FW looks pretty decent.

I wanted to wait up but couldn’t and I got another 1.5” overnight. So, you didn’t bust as far as I’m concerned. 7” is more than I expected. Better than March 2015 and almost Feb 2021.

That's pretty damn strong! I hadn't seen many updates on overnight totals, but that is more than we got.

[Gotwood]

I hope that wasn’t the last time I see flakes this winter. Was definitely a bust for my area I’m not sure I even got half an inch of snow.

[bubba hotep]

That was sooooo close for DFW. I should have taken all the years of waiting for a warm nose to erode as gospel and dismissed the higher totals for DFW, lol. I bet on this not being an overly aggressive warm nose in the DFW area, but should have accounted for the thickness. The Euro was the most consistent with the 500mb pattern and the placement of QPF. The American models adjusted QPF NW late in the game and ended up looking ok. In general, most models did well enough on temps to indemnity that the transition zone would be somewhere near DFW. However, pretty much across the board, models were too quick to push the warm nose out of DFW and transition things back to snow.

You know, it's tough when you've had a few winters with no or few events like y'all up north. When some of the models are showing headline-grabbing totals, it's hard to NOT get excited. There is a weather weenie in all of us, right?! LOL. At least y'all got something and hopefully there is more to come. And some of you even got more than you thought you'd get. Loved all the photos and Hockey's video feed.

We got about an inch of liquid gold down here but it was truly miserable outside.

ETA: It's snowing here again, and the backyard is covered in snow from yesterday. So, in the end, I can't complain!

Yeah, for every event that verifies to the higher model totals, there are a bunch that don't come close. It does look like the 12z 3k NAM from yesterday did pretty well based on Quixotic report and some reports up closer in the Red River Counties.

[orangeblood]

It looks like the totals are generally in the 1-4" range across DFW. Even the areas that seemingly saw more snow than ice/rain, with upwards of 1.5" of QPF, it appears the actual snow ratios were like 5:1 or even worse (and it rarely gets as bad as that).

Not technically a bust (barely), but these amounts ended up being on the far lower end of forecasts and the storm overall was fairly underwhelming considering not only the hype leading up to the event but also how extremely close this was to being a truly major (even historic) snowstorm.

That said, for those who have been pining for any type of snow and aren't used to this type of weather (I'm a Detroit native, so this does nothing for me excitement-wise), I hope you enjoyed it! Perspective is everything and I do understand any type of snowfall in this part of the country is at a premium.

I'm not sure how to calculate ratios for this one because a lot of that QPF ended up falling as just cold rain in most of DFW. The front end heavy snow was not well forecasted, and the back end transition wasn't either, lol. It was a very tough forecast, and even FWD was upping snow totals late in the game as models trended cooler. They even called for another 2-4" for DFW as late as the evening forecast update, but the warm nose was just too stubborn. Also, dry air might have moved in faster than expected, shutting down precipitation sooner. In the end, the warm nose won, as always.

Yep, well said! That warm nose no doubt needs to be the favorite to win most games around here. It can lose and lose big, like Feb 2010 but it is rare!

[HockeyTx82]

Flizzard in Ponder at 9:00AM

It's been an honor and pleasure tracking and sharing this storm with you all.

Here's to the next one!

This Flizzard had picked up and it's quite respectable now.

One last hoorah!

[Ntxw]

Band coming into FW looks pretty decent.

I wanted to wait up but couldn’t and I got another 1.5” overnight. So, you didn’t bust as far as I’m concerned. 7” is more than I expected. Better than March 2015 and almost Feb 2021.

I got a good 3/4ths an inch out of it! And thanks, glad you got your numbers. The evening round really let me down there, was hoping at least a few inches. But lesson learned.

The interesting part the overachievement was underneath the cold ULL to the north from the Panhandle to Oklahoma. Though qpf wasn't intense, persistence won out up there where little was projected. Speaking of that ULL feature is bringing flizzards this morning.

[Ntxw]

For those with any snow/ice pack it will be chilly tonight in the upper teens and low 20s. Another front, though side swipe, early in the week will keep things chilly. It will warm up closer to normal end of the week and then the well advertised bigger front beyond that is starting to show up under 200 hours here and there.

[bubba hotep]

Wife - Hopefully, you learned your lessons about snow in Dallas

Me - 06z GFS!

[rwfromkansas]

South-central Kansas even got a few inches due to the OK storm. Overperformed there, too.

Glad to see some flakes today. Nice flurries/light snow at times.

After measuring in the front without the dogs trampling all the snow, I got 3.75 inches. That’s impressive. At least an inch from that quick burst last night.

At the top end of forecast really.

That said, the morning is what saved this. If the NWS forecast for just sleet/rain early ended up right, it would have been a true bust.

[gpsnowman]

Wife - Hopefully, you learned your lessons about snow in Dallas

Me - 06z GFS!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2025011006/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Just 2 weeks out!! To quote Toni Tenille, "do that to me one more time."

[Brandon8181]

Does anyone know the road conditions specifically in and around farmers branch?

My daughter has a volleyball game.

[PineyWoods]

Snowing here in Tyler at 35°. Not the snow like those around Dallas but still pretty none the less.

[Quixotic]

Band coming into FW looks pretty decent.

I wanted to wait up but couldn’t and I got another 1.5” overnight. So, you didn’t bust as far as I’m concerned. 7” is more than I expected. Better than March 2015 and almost Feb 2021.

That's pretty damn strong! I hadn't seen many updates on overnight totals, but that is more than we got.

My measuring skills aren’t good so take it with a grain of salt. Had 5.5 yesterday, melted to 4 before last night and back to 5.5” this morning. So, while I don’t have 7” on the ground I do almost have 6” and the streets are covered. Good storm for me.

[Portastorm]

Does anyone know the road conditions specifically in and around farmers branch?

My daughter has a volleyball game.

Brandon, you can check out road conditions here: https://its.txdot.gov/its/District/DAL/cameras

[cstrunk]

Wife - Hopefully, you learned your lessons about snow in Dallas

Me - 06z GFS!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2025011006/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I'll take disappointment from this storm if we can just lock in 18" for Longview with that...

[HockeyTx82]

Wife - Hopefully, you learned your lessons about snow in Dallas

Me - 06z GFS!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2025011006/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Just 2 weeks out!! To quote Toni Tenille, "do that to me one more time."

Why not Britney Spears, Hit Me Baby One More Time!