Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

Wow things are coming together rather quickly. Model consensus for a massive arctic dump. Just need a snowstorm mixed in.

[Iceresistance]

Wow things are coming together rather quickly. Model consensus for a massive arctic dump. Just need a snowstorm mixed in.

Things are favorable for one

And take a look at this KWTV forecast, winds close to Blizzard!?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXD6D.png

[Brent]

Yeah our met did mention possibly a "little" snow... Of course 2 days ago yesterday was a little snow too

[Stratton23]

CMC goes absolutely ballistic, looks like a february 2021 run.

[SnowintheFalls]

CMC goes absolutely ballistic, looks like a february 2021 run.

Record cold and precipitation or just the cold?

[Stratton23]

Just cold, too much suppression

[Iceresistance]

This is one of the most extreme -EPO signals I have ever seen, let alone the agreement


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXDZw.gif

[Cpv17]

CMC goes absolutely ballistic, looks like a february 2021 run.

1069MB high on the Canadian lol

[Stratton23]

00z EPS and GEPS are even colder, wow

[Sambucol2024]

00z EPS and GEPS are even colder, wow

Details,please. Like how cold?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 both ensembles have widespread bright purple/ barney colors for texas, thats an ensemble mean average of 15-20 degrees below normal, doesnt sound like alot, but for an ensemble mean, thats very significant

[Harp.1]

No precip???

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 ensembles have a good signal for precipitation during the same period, global runs 10-11 days out will fluctuate big time on that

[Throckmorton]

Yellowknife, NT forecast temperatures (in °F) for Jan. 19th from various global model ensemble means, along with the 90th and 10th percentiles:

B11–B16...(B01–B23)...ECMWF ENS (Jan. 11, 00Z)
B25–B30...(B09–B42)...GEM GEPS (Jan. 11, 00Z)
B08–B16...(01–B23).....GFS GEFS (Jan. 11, 00Z)

Dawson City, YK forecast temperatures (in °F) for Jan. 19th from various global model ensemble means, along with the 90th and 10th percentiles:

..06–B04...(17–B18)...ECMWF ENS (Jan. 11, 00Z)
B17–B21...(00–B34)...GEM GEPS (Jan. 11, 00Z)
B09–B17...(07–B30)...GFS GEFS (Jan. 11, 00Z)

[MSUDawg]

Great post by Steve. This is why he's one of the first sources I check with local weather.

I was blessed to be on the higher edge here just north of 161 and dnt area. My unofical measurement I took while walking around at 1am last night, during that surprise last band, was just over 5 inches. As someone who moved to Texas in July 2010... I'm still yearning for MY Jan 2010... Oh how the models teased.. And heck delkus even showed those models with 10-12" on Monday or Tuesday saying you really don't know what to expect.

Here's to hoping we see another round in a few weeks....
Evwryone stay safe out there this weekend

Steve McCauley

The last of the snow flurries is fading away during the lunch hour, but the winter storm has left its mark on about half of the region. Snowfall totals ranged from 1 to 11 inches across north Texas with the BIG winner on the NW side of Sherman where nearly a foot of snow fell. MyOwnRadar detected lightning strikes in the area, so it is possible this was a thundersnow event.

As you can see from this graphic, the line that was predicted to separate the Snow / No Snow area was off by about an average of 25 miles. But for those who visit this page often were probably not suprised.

You will recall that the text of the forecast from 2 days ago stated the following:

"Keep this in mind: if the forecast temperature is off by as little as 1 degree, this will have a MAJOR impact on the predicted amounts of each precipitation type. "

And sure enough, the weather balloon data from last night revealed I was off by 1.5 degrees at the 5000-feet-above-ground level, which caused the falling snowflakes to mostly melt just before hitting the ground south of the Snow-No Snow line. Had the forecast been 1.5 degrees more accurate at the 5000-foot level, the snow line would have matched up well with the prediction.

Normally, no one notices when we are off by only 1.5 degrees. But this was a HUGE mistake if you are in that narrow band! But, of course, we mostly only hear from the folks in that 25 to 30 mile band that think the winter storm missed everyone, and that the forecast was a complete bust.

For you folks with at least a couple of inches of snow on the ground, your low temperature tonight may fall into the teens while the southern half of the region will fall into the 20s. This means any residual moisture will freeze solid, so take extra precuations as you head out the door Saturday morning!

NOTE: Some of these totals may be understated since some melting has occurred in the last 24 hours.

[Throckmorton]

EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 22nd along with the 90th and 10th percentiles (Jan. 11th, 00Z run):

31–13...(50–B02)...Amarillo
43–27...(57–19).....Austin Camp Mabry
39–24...(55–15).....Dallas
46–31...(58–21).....Houston
33–15...(50–B01)...Oklahoma City
33–15...(49–02).....Tulsa

Not record breaking stuff, even at the 10th percentile.

[CaptinCrunch]

We really won't know what the next system will be or not be until next weekend. While cold is great, if no precipitation it's just a wasted opportunity. But I just said, we won't have any viable details until next weekend.

[Tammie]

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, they’ve been really accurate this season.
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/187807255 ... J0be-HnN-w

[HockeyTx82]

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, they’ve been really accurate this season.
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/187807255 ... J0be-HnN-w

So what kind of temperatures will we be looking at potentially

[CaptinCrunch]

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, they’ve been really accurate this season.
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/187807255 ... J0be-HnN-w

So what kind of temperatures will we be looking at potentially

The normal mean temperature for January in NTX 54 degrees. So 46 is -8 below the mean, which is what will be around for at least the next 14 days.