Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Cpv17]

The Canadian shows it also.

https://i.ibb.co/HYsSP12/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-36-1.png

Not falling for this again move that precipitation north 100 miles.

Nah, it’s our turn down south.

[Ntxw]

It would only be fitting if the next event's proverbial rug would be qpf .

[Stratton23]

Major winter storm on the Euro

[Brent]

The mean on the EPS is barely above 10 degrees here

Inevitably there's some well below zero members

We haven't had a signal like this all winter

[Throckmorton]

GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 22nd along with the 90th and 10th percentiles (Jan. 11th, 00Z run):

25–10...(50–B11)...Amarillo
37–25...(68–08).....Austin Camp Mabry
31–20...(48–05).....Dallas
39–31...(67–11).....Houston
21–09...(42–B09)...Oklahoma City
20–08...(39–B08)...Tulsa

[Harp.1]

Major winter storm on the Euro

Can you post it?

[Quixotic]

Major winter storm on the Euro

Can you post it?

Use pivotal weather site.

[cheezyWXguy]

The Canadian shows it also.

https://i.ibb.co/HYsSP12/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-36-1.png

Not falling for this again move that precipitation north 100 miles.

Nah, it’s our turn down south.

I like it just where it is, get your own storm!

[bubba hotep]

I'd be skeptical of any snow that the Euro shows b/c QPF is so low and will fall into very dry air. However, ratios would be good across DFW if there is a bit more moisture. There might be issues with freezing rain farther SE where there is better moisture.

[Ntxw]

Major winter storm on the Euro

Can you post it?

It looks kind of like the Canadian. With some late mixing action on the coast of TX and LA behind the front.

[txtwister78]

Yeah still several days out folks before we begin to look at precipitation chances/types/favored locations with this. The one thing that continues to trend our direction is real arctic cold and so obviously you need the one (cold) before you can begin to even talk about the other (precip). Interesting trend I'm seeing on the ensembles is the cold perhaps arriving a little faster than ensembles had initially indicated when this began to pop up but with arctic air that's typically the case anyway (faster and colder further south).

[Cpv17]

Not falling for this again move that precipitation north 100 miles.

Nah, it’s our turn down south.

I like it just where it is, get your own storm!

No sir! You had yours, time for ours now!

[Stratton23]

This cold outbreak could be a big doozy! Ensembles are indicating a few days after the first initial shot of brutally cold arctic air, their will be another surge of arctic air with another trough diving down into the central us, this doesnt look to be a short lived event

[Ntxw]

This cold outbreak could be a big doozy! Ensembles are indicating a few days after the first initial shot of brutally cold arctic air, their will be another surge of arctic air with another trough diving down into the central us, this doesnt look to be a short lived event

Ridging in Alaska remains, and cold doesn't really deviate from the US-Canadian border and it likely won't through February. So I think you're on to something with that. Over time though the SE ridge will gradually get stronger as the trough retreats westward.

-21 daily SOI FWIW, not your typical La Nina SOI.

[txtwister78]

This cold outbreak could be a big doozy! Ensembles are indicating a few days after the first initial shot of brutally cold arctic air, their will be another surge of arctic air with another trough diving down into the central us, this doesnt look to be a short lived event

Sometimes these come in waves but some of that will be dependent on how long we can hold that impressive blocking into western Alaska that models are showing, but this is true Siberian express arctic air and that source region/signal is what has typically brought our coldest temps into Texas when it shows up. Factor in the time of year (climatologically getting into our coldest period relative to averages) and this looks to be the real deal right now.

[Sambucol2024]

This cold outbreak could be a big doozy! Ensembles are indicating a few days after the first initial shot of brutally cold arctic air, their will be another surge of arctic air with another trough diving down into the central us, this doesnt look to be a short lived event

Pow Ponder mentioned the difference this time is the PNA going negative in his video this morning.

https://youtu.be/IvfICr2dkco?feature=shared

[wxman22]

There is remarkable model agreement in this range for the next arctic outbreak. When you have a signal that strong you know things mean business.

Also the GFS ensembles show a decent signal for a winterstorm FWIW.

[SnowintheFalls]

Brutal cold without precip is just ehh. I can't stay home from work if it's just cold!

[Throckmorton]

Deleted

[wxman22]

Brutal cold without precip is just ehh. I can't stay home from work if it's just cold!

There's already a good signal for precip in this range also from several models and ensembles.