Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TropicalTundra]

Snow next Sunday Monday on TV with highs in the 20s

Yet again more northern trend in the 7-9 day range. God I hate the world not spinning around central Texas weather wise

[Quicksilver17]

Quicksilver17 if we want winter precipitation in the deep south, like se texas, we need a coastal low to develop, that would help throw up moisture into texas, when we are talking about siberian air coming down, getting cold enough wouldnt be an issue, its always timing that’s the issue, but if we can time this out just right, we do have a shot, but that also means a potential ice storm too as we have to consider its hard to just get pure snow down here, mainly due to the warm nose

I agree, we always seem to deal with the complexity of our location to get it just right. Hopefully we can pull it off. ❄️☃️

[HockeyTx82]

Therockmorton keep in mind this is air coming trom siberia, im expecting ensembles to trend even colder as we get closer to this event, models almost always underestimate how cold these airmasses are, especially since we have an established snowpack to our north

Dead on that Siberian air can indeed make its way down to Texas and be underestimated. Often, models do tend to underestimate how cold these air masses can be. No surprise there, especially with the snowpack to our north reinforcing the chill. This is definitely something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the event.

Forward-thinking meteorologists understand the impact of established snowpacks on temperature trends. Ensembles may very well trend colder as you mentioned. Every winter, we learn more about these dynamic weather patterns. Deeper understanding comes with experience and observation.

Teleconnections are amazing how they drive these events. Hard to believe we can be 70's during the day and Snow a few hours later. Exciting times ahead!

Taking note of these factors helps in better predicting weather events. Really, it’s fascinating how interconnected these systems are. Over time, we get better at anticipating these cold air incursions. Lookout for updates as the event nears. Let's stay informed and prepared!

[CaptinCrunch]

Top 10 maybe top 5 winter. 78, 10, 77, 79, 64 only ones I’d put above it. Maybe 85.

I'm not sure how the values are calculated on the forecast sites but PSL maintains a daily timeseries from 1948. For DJF December 1983 hold the highest at -553.65. 1989 -412.12 is notable. Though you don't necessarily need very deep values of the EPO to have a big outbreak, if it is in the deep -3s, -4s, and -5 SDs you're probably looking at a big dome of high pressure system sending cold into the front range.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Meant to respond to this earlier but the only reason I left off 83-84 is because it was just December that was epic and January and February were pretty meh. For those that weren’t here, it was legendary and pretty much the standard for cold. Not even February 2021 touched it. Snow on the 16th, snowman up the next day and then an absolutely insane Arctic HP came down. Still think it’s the all time record for highest pressure in DFW. We went below freezing for 10 days. Saw 38 on the 28th. You could drive your car across lakes. Ice fish. A few people got themselves smoked by pushing it too far. You know it has been cold when 38 felt like summer.

Anywho, I downgraded 83-84 because it was only one month. But as they say, what a month it was.

1983' has the record for consecutive hours at or below freezing 295.

2021' actually has the 2nd most hours at or below freezing 232 "non-consecutive" due to 1 hour where the temperature was 33 before dropping back to 32.

Both events were costly for residents across NTX from burst pipes and flooding. I had several friends that went through it in 21'

[Brent]

Near zero here on the CMC

[Stratton23]

GFS dry, CMC significant winter storm and extremely cold, its likely seeing that snowpack to the north

[Harp.1]

GFS dry, CMC significant winter storm and extremely cold, its likely seeing that snowpack to the north

I wonder what side the Euro will take….

[CaptinCrunch]

I wouldn't get worked over any models and their runs until we get to Thursday or Friday this coming week.

I would expect the Euro to handle the cold fairly well, but will over estimate any precipitation amounts like it did with the last system when over 72 hrs out.

[wxman22]

GFS dry, CMC significant winter storm and extremely cold, its likely seeing that snowpack to the north

I wonder what side the Euro will take….

The Euro looks similar to the CMC it just has the shortwave weaker than the CMC but still produces wintry precip. We'll see if the 0z Euro continues the same "theme" or not. Not that it matters too much in this range.

[Brent]

Yeah honestly I'm not even looking at precip right now... 10 days before Thursday the same models thought it'd snow in Florida...

Let's get the cold first and then worry about it

[Cpv17]

Pretty much all I’m looking for right now is how much can the EPO ridge grow poleward and how strong the high pressures get in western Canada.

[txtwister78]

That's about as strong a signal of an arctic outbreak that I've seen since.... don't want to say it. Regardless should this continue into early next week, I would expect media and state officials to start sounding the alarm.

[Cpv17]

That's about as strong a signal of an arctic outbreak that I've seen since.... don't want to say it. Regardless should this continue into early next week, I would expect media and state officials to start sounding the alarm.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850_anom_stream/1736640000/1737342000-v7jzO4OgLTc.png

Geez Louise, that’s crazy

[Stratton23]

Massive se texas snowstorm on the euro

[Quixotic]

Let's get the cold first and then worry about it

My favorite saying in winter.

[Harp.1]

Massive se texas snowstorm on the euro

Where are you seeing this so quickly? I’m on Pivotal Weather and it’s not even close yet to where you are.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 im on weatherbell, the euro 00z finishes for me at 11:30

[Cpv17]

Harp.1 im on weatherbell, the euro 00z finishes for me at 11:30

Just out of curiosity, how much do you pay for Weatherbell?

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 its $25 a month so it is expensive, that being said its worth the price, it gives you access to pretty much every model available in the weather world, including short range models that you cant find on tropical tidbits, its definitely at least worth checking out if you’re curious, ive enjoyed using it

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 its $25 a month so it is expensive, that being said its worth the price, it gives you access to pretty much every model available in the weather world, including short range models that you cant find on tropical tidbits, its definitely at least worth checking out if you’re curious, ive enjoyed using it

Gotcha. I heard the CMC ensemble tonight is flat nuts.