Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Harp.1]

The euro loves south Louisiana too.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 it is, looking at it right now, i havent seen an ensemble mean like that in quite some time lol

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 00Z run):

32–13...(48–B03)...B02...0.94...Amarillo
40–24...(52–14).....17......0.12...Austin Camp Mabry
36–20...(51–10).....07......0.35...Dallas
41–27...(54–18).....16......0.16...Houston
31–13...(47–B01)...B03...0.59...Oklahoma City
31–13...(46–B01)...B01...0.59...Tulsa

Only three of these stations at the 10th percentile would break or get very close to the existing record lows.

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The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 06Z run):

39–15...(58–04)...B02...0.75...Amarillo
42–28...(56–19)...17.....0.16...Austin Camp Mabry
38–25...(51–20)...07.....0.29...Dallas
44–35...(54–29)...16.....0.05...Houston
35–20...(49–13)...B03...0.41...Oklahoma City
34–18...(48–12)...B01...0.52...Tulsa

Only one of these stations at the 10th percentile would get close to the existing record lows.

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The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 00Z run):

23–03...(38–B09)...B02...1.89...Amarillo
35–20...(54–11).....17......0.24...Austin Camp Mabry
29–18...(45–10).....07......1.06...Dallas
38–28...(69–15).....16......0.43...Houston
21–07...(41–B05)...B03...1.89...Oklahoma City
20–07...(38–B05)...B01...2.13...Tulsa

All of these stations except Dallas at the 10th percentile would break the existing record lows.

[Portastorm]

Love me some 0z Euro operational run! Not one but two winter weather events for the Austin area.

I’m equally intrigued about next week as many of you are. Gonna be another busy week in the Texas winter weather thread on S2K!

[gpsnowman]

Love me some 0z Euro operational run! Not one but two winter weather events for the Austin area.

I’m equally intrigued about next week as many of you are. Gonna be another busy week in the Texas winter weather thread on S2K!

I'm still catching up on sleep from the last round. But it's time to do it again. Next week looks brutal cold wise and if a snowstorm enters the picture, oh my.

[HockeyTx82]

Great question! Both snowmelt and rain have their own benefits for grass and vegetation, but melting snow can indeed have some unique advantages over regular rain:

1. **Slow Release**: Snow melts gradually, providing a slow, consistent release of water. This steady infiltration helps prevent water runoff and erosion, ensuring the soil absorbs the maximum amount of moisture.

2. **Deep Soil Penetration**: As snow melts slowly, water has more time to percolate deeper into the soil. This encourages deeper root growth in plants, making them more resilient during dry periods.

3. **Nitrogen Content**: Snow often contains dissolved nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere, which can act as a natural fertilizer when the snow melts. This can give plants an added nutrient boost.

4. **Ground Insulation**: Snow can insulate the ground, protecting plant roots from extreme cold. When the snow melts, it provides a gentle transition to warmer temperatures for plants.

However, it's worth noting that too much snow or prolonged snow cover can also have negative effects, such as suffocating the plants or leading to mold growth. In the right amount, though, snowmelt can be quite beneficial! Nature has a way of balancing things out beautifully, doesn't it

If this is all true, I should have a very lush green yard in Spring.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro EPS backed off on the duration of the bitter cold. This also shows up in the Op as temps rebound into the 40s for a few days before the next cold blast.

[Throckmorton]

00z Euro EPS backed off on the duration of the bitter cold. This also shows up in the Op as temps rebound into the 40s for a few days before the next cold blast.

As has the GEFS 06Z run.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro EPS backed off on the duration of the bitter cold. This also shows up in the Op as temps rebound into the 40s for a few days before the next cold blast.

As has the GEFS 06Z run.

The OP is still plenty cold. It also realized that the pattern would support numerous cold shots, and in 24 hrs it went from a high on the 25th of 70 to 26 lol

[wxman57]

I'll be starting on my verification of model temps for Houston over the last event. Just looking at each model plot with actual obs overlaid, the Euro was way too cold for the first 2-3 days of the event (Mon-Wed), then way too warm beyond then. Early on, if you remember, it was predicting nearly a foot of snow across Houston. Well, we got 40F and rain. Canadian was absolutely terrible. It was forecasting about 10F on Friday and 5F for Saturday's low. Turns out that it was 30-35F too cold. It always is way too cold for down here, at least. As such, it was way too far south with frozen precip.

Models didn't really catch on until a couple days out, and even then they were very inconsistent from run to run. While it looks like parts of Texas may get more winter precip, I wouldn't believe any forecast of snow across SE TX or south LA this far out. Meanwhile, I think I'll take Friday off and enjoy temps to near 70. That is, unless we're swamped with client conference calls about the upcoming winter storm again...

[gpsnowman]

Time to wake up the pilot and get the jet ready for Australia, 57. Melbourne is nice in the southern hemisphere summer. Plus if you are a tennis fan you can attend the Australian Open.

[snownado]

00z Euro EPS backed off on the duration of the bitter cold. This also shows up in the Op as temps rebound into the 40s for a few days before the next cold blast.

Hopefully the start of a moderation trend...

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro EPS backed off on the duration of the bitter cold. This also shows up in the Op as temps rebound into the 40s for a few days before the next cold blast.

Hopefully the start of a moderation trend...

Also, that relaxation would allow for a potential storm system. If we just get 4 or 5 days below freezing in DFW, then it's likely winter weather would be suppressed pretty far south, or there would be none at all.

[Ntxw]

I'm guessing there will be progressively colder fronts until the biggest one comes. A potentially 1050mb or greater high into the US. Either way I don't see a high qpf event with it right now, more likely chasing ratios.

[wxman22]

I'm guessing there will be progressively colder fronts until the biggest one comes. A potentially 1050mb or greater high into the US. Either way I don't see a high qpf event with it right now, more likely chasing ratios.

Yep I was thinking the same thing, seems like with the upcoming potential storm qpf would more than likely be much lower than Thursdays storm was. But snow ratios may be decently higher due to the colder temps.

[Quicksilver17]

Cpv17 its $25 a month so it is expensive, that being said its worth the price, it gives you access to pretty much every model available in the weather world, including short range models that you cant find on tropical tidbits, its definitely at least worth checking out if you’re curious, ive enjoyed using it

Gotcha. I heard the CMC ensemble tonight is flat nuts.

Cpv17,
I see they have a free 3 day trial for WeatherBell, so if you want to give it a go. I may try it as well.

[wxman22]

The 12Z ICON is now breaking out wintry precip also fwiw.

[Gotwood]

I’m confused I thought the blocking was looking good for the cold into Texas? -PNA coming. Why are the models moderating the cold east again?

[txtwister78]

I’m confused I thought the blocking was looking good for the cold into Texas? -PNA coming. Why are the models moderating the cold east again?

Canadian and Euro along with their ensembles so far have been consistent with core of the cold initially getting into Texas before eventually spreading east. Keep in mind the cold will spread/push east when you deliver that much into the country but the core of it will likely come down the plains into Texas first.

The GFS operational has a known progressive bias associated with it, however its ensemble doesn't really align with it and continues to drive arctic cold south into Texas so I wouldn't get too focused on one operational at this range. Ensembles will continue to be your best follow for now.

[orangeblood]

I'm guessing there will be progressively colder fronts until the biggest one comes. A potentially 1050mb or greater high into the US. Either way I don't see a high qpf event with it right now, more likely chasing ratios.

Yep, Cold is coming but precip chances look low. Stronger PV becoming an issue again.

Precip trend on GEFS for early next week not going in the right direction…