Texas Winter 2024-2025

[cheezyWXguy]

Parts of Texas be -50°F below normal on this 12z Euro run, I don't recall the last time the Euro was this aggressive

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXOx4.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXOx4.png

Anyone else starting to get a pit in their stomach looking at maps like this?

Anyone who’s seen my posts knows I’m a big fan of winter weather, but this is too much.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro EPS has an 8-day below freezing cluster for DFW, and it also raised the chances of a multi inch snow event to about 20% for DFW.

That’s more of a December 1983 type event

Except in Jan and early Feb you don't need record big highs to deliver equally or colder (raw) temps. 83 famous for duration.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Parts of Texas be -50°F below normal on this 12z Euro run, I don't recall the last time the Euro was this aggressive

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXOx4.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXOx4.png

2021 was.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z Euro EPS has an 8-day below freezing cluster for DFW, and it also raised the chances of a multi inch snow event to about 20% for DFW.

That’s more of a December 1983 type event

Except in Jan and early Feb you don't need record big highs to deliver equally or colder (raw) temps. 83 famous for duration.

Right, I was just talking about duration.

[Throckmorton]

Fifteen coldest months on record in Texas (by average temperatures):
(1).....36.6°...January 1940
(2).....36.8°...January 1930
(3).....37.2°...January 1979
(4).....38.0°...February 1905
(5).....38.3°...December 1983, January 1978, January 1918
(8).....38.5°...February 1895
(9).....38.7°...January 1977
(10)...39.2°...January 1963, February 1899
(12)...39.9°...January 1949
(13)...40.1°...January 1962
(14)...40.2°...January 1948, December 1914

Ten coldest winters on record in Texas (by average temperatures):
(1).....41.3°...1898/99
(2).....42.2°...1904/05
(3).....42.8°...1978/79
(4).....42.9°...1977/78
(5).....43.0°...1963/64
(6).....43.4°...1911/12
(7).....43.5°...1983/84
(8).....43.8°...2009/10, 1972/73
(10)...44.2°...1909/10

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/time-series/[

[Brent]

More posts about being near zero here

[Gotwood]

Until GFS gets on board I’m not buying the super cold like the Euro is showing.

[Ntxw]

The Euro is the coldest of the bunch (beats Canadian even .) But the concern is the ensembles. Pretty extreme even for them, only a handful of times have they showed this.

[Harp.1]

The Euro is the coldest of the bunch (beats Canadian even .) But the concern is the ensembles. Pretty extreme even for them, only a handful of times have they showed this.

What about the gfs ensembles?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Until Thursday, we should probably frame ensemble runs side by side to get a good idea.

[Ntxw]

The Euro is the coldest of the bunch (beats Canadian even .) But the concern is the ensembles. Pretty extreme even for them, only a handful of times have they showed this.

What about the gfs ensembles?

They are cold too, just not as extreme at this time.

[Throckmorton]

According to the ECMWF operational model (Jan. 12th, 12Z), here are some forecast temperatures:

Amarillo:
54–34.....Friday, 1/17
34–22.....Saturday
25–18.....Sunday
13–04.....Monday
07–B01...Tuesday
21–07.....Wednesday
17–03.....Thursday
19–03.....Friday, 1/24
34–12.....Saturday

Austin Camp Mabry:
63–41...Saturday, 1/18
39–30...Sunday
28–23...Monday
18–12...Tuesday
21–07...Wednesday
25–12...Thursday
24–22...Friday
35–25...Saturday
45–32...Sunday, 1/26

Dallas / Fort Worth Airport:
61–47...Friday, 1/17
46–32...Saturday
31–24...Sunday
26–17...Monday
14–06...Tuesday
15–02...Wednesday
28–07...Thursday
22–15...Friday, 1/24
30–23...Saturday
42–31...Sunday, 1/26

Oklahoma City:
61–35...Friday, 1/17
38–25...Saturday
23–15...Sunday
13–06...Monday
08–04...Tuesday
25–07...Wednesday
19–09...Thursday
26–08...Friday, 1/24
36–20...Saturday

Tulsa:
61–36...Friday, 1/17
38–23...Saturday
21–12...Sunday
12–07...Monday
09–04...Tuesday
24–06...Wednesday
22–09...Thursday
26–08...Friday, 1/24
37–21...Saturday

Houston Hobby Airport:
69–49...Saturday, 1/18
42–36...Sunday
34–28...Monday
25–18...Tuesday
19–12...Wednesday
28–15...Thursday
31–29...Friday
34–25...Saturday, 1/25
40–28...Sunday

[orangeblood]

-15C to -18C in NTX, -10C to -13C in S-C and SE TX is pretty darn cold for 850mb temps.

Insane for inside 10 days on the Euro!

[Ntxw]

Latest from CPC. Maybe Wxman57 should take a trip to Alaska?

[gpsnowman]

Anchorage is beautiful this time of year.

[dhweather]

Good lord, the 0Z ECMWF is hopefully Jester, because I really don't want another 2021 caliber event.

[Kirby68]

-15C to -18C in NTX, -10C to -13C in S-C and SE TX is pretty darn cold for 850mb temps.

Insane for inside 10 days on the Euro!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t850/1736683200/1737482400-MOLPLI2jhbw.png

Wait. Is this map showing departure from normal temps or actual temps???

[JayDT]

Latest from CPC. Maybe Wxman57 should take a trip to Alaska?

https://i.imgur.com/HqkgQxw.gif

[gpsnowman]

-15C to -18C in NTX, -10C to -13C in S-C and SE TX is pretty darn cold for 850mb temps.

Insane for inside 10 days on the Euro!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t850/1736683200/1737482400-MOLPLI2jhbw.png

Wait. Is this map showing departure from normal temps or actual temps???

Those are 850mb temps. About 5000 feet up. Plus its in Celsius so -17 is around 0F I think. Please correct me if I am wrong

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 12Z run):

32–13...(48–B03)...B02...0.94...Amarillo
40–24...(52–14).....17......0.12...Austin Camp Mabry
36–20...(51–10).....07......0.35...Dallas
41–27...(54–18).....16......0.16...Houston
31–13...(47–B01)...B03...0.59...Oklahoma City
31–13...(46–B01)...B01...0.59...Tulsa

Only three of these stations at the 10th percentile would break or get very close to the existing record lows.

=====

The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 12Z run):

39–15...(50–05)...B02...0.28...Amarillo
43–30...(55–20)...17.....0.11...Austin Camp Mabry
40–27...(53–20)...07.....0.08...Dallas
44–36...(55–29)...16.....0.07...Houston
35–20...(48–12)...B03...0.16...Oklahoma City
33–18...(44–13)...B01...0.17...Tulsa

Only one of these stations at the 10th percentile would get close to the existing record lows.

=====

The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 12Z run):

24–04...(36–B05)...B02...1.50...Amarillo
30–20...(39–10).....17......0.91...Austin Camp Mabry
29–18...(40–09).....07......1.06...Dallas
34–24...(64–15).....16......0.55...Houston
22–09...(42–B03)...B03...1.22...Oklahoma City
21–08...(38–B03)...B01...1.38...Tulsa

All of these stations except Dallas at the 10th percentile would tie or break the existing record lows.