Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

Looks like this is going to shake out pretty similar to last January.

I got an inch of lake effect snow last January.

[Snowman67]

While I tend to not believe that south LA will be buried in sleet and freezing rain next week (6Z GFS), the upper-air pattern of the GFS and Euro are becoming similar. Both indicate temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s next Tue/Wed with a short wave digging into NW TX. That would generate another west Gulf low. Air may be cold enough for snow here in Houston this time.

Temps don't look cold enough that I'd have to shut the water off to the house. We signed a contract for a whole-house generator in early August, with the promise of installation in 4-7 months. It's been 5 months. Six weeks ago, there were 1100 homes ahead of us. I'm figuring they'll get to us by April. Fortunately, my portable generator is repaired and ready to go this time. That's just in case ERCOT has an issue.

Are you seeing any type of chance that this becomes a 2021 type event anywhere in Texas?

Temperatures don't look nearly as cold as 2021, and the precipitation not as heavy and confined to the southern part of the state where there will be more moisture.

At what temps would you decide to shut off water to the house?

[Gotwood]

Looks like this is going to shake out pretty similar to last January.

I got an inch of lake effect snow last January.

Probably the best one can hope for here. Don’t know if it will be as cold as last year though.

[cajungal]

Looks like this is going to shake out pretty similar to last January.

I got an inch of lake effect snow last January.

Probably the best one can hope for here. Don’t know if it will be as cold as last year though.

May I can get some bayou effect snow. Snow flakes fell just south of Houma briefly last week. Completely unexpected

[Ntxw]

It's interesting that the GFS continues to want that ULL off the California coast by this weekend where the other models are not to that extent. If it were valid then there would definitely be greater chance of moisture being thrown into the cold air in place.

[Ntxw]

So now the GFS is a second, stronger cold front after cold is already in place and winter storm.

[Throckmorton]

I have seen some references to February 2021 when discussing future cold outbreaks. When I have seen them I have thought "I'm not sure everyone understands just how incredible that event was and how unlikely it is we will see something like that in our lifetimes!" In Austin, we had 5-6 days below freezing and 6" of snow and snow drifts several feet high! I know, I lived it and still have the videos.

But truth be told ... and there have been scientific papers written about it ... the depth, duration and scope of the cold in Texas was worse in December 1989 than February 2021. The cold snaps in 1951 and 1983 were very close to that as well.

I guess my perspective on 2021 as well as other Austinites is more severe due to the collapse of our local infrastructure (no water) and the near collapse of the state power grid. Also I have never seen 6" of snow and snow drifts of 2 feet in Austin in my 41 years here until that event. So all of that colors my perception.

Just some random thoughts this morning. If you're interested in reading a paper about comparing the events, here is a good one and the link:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0278

That article is a good one, although it does not consider the more frequent destabilizations of the stratospheric polar vortex associated with climate change. Winters in Texas are getting warmer overall. But because of the unstable SPV, the state is increasingly prone to severe Arctic outbreaks that used to happen only once every several decades. Hundreds to perhaps over 1,000 people died in Texas in February 2021 because of of extreme cold and grid failure. According to ERCOT, a repeat of that cold during this or next month would require load shedding. In that sense, the ERCOT–managed grid is not fixed.

[wxman22]

[Ntxw]

https://i.ibb.co/tXZrw64/IMG-0157.png

Nickel and dime those ratios to 6" . Overall I still don't think the models sending it all east is correct (cold), and that we're in correcting phase as the ensembles have been showing to follow the big high coming down the Plains.

[MississippiWx]

GFS seems to be on its own unfortunately with the winter storm. CMC, Euro, Icon very suppressed with the storm track.

[Stratton23]

CMC caved to the GFS, major winter storm

[Throckmorton]

Of the 35 coldest days (30 plus ties) in Texas history, six happened since the warming of the Texas climate accellerated in 1990. Here they are, with the statewide temperature average within parentheses:

(2)... :February 16, 2021 (12.0°)
(4).....February 15, 2021 (14.0°)
(11)...February 3, 2011 (16.0°)
(19)...February 4, 2011 (18.5°)
(30)...February 17, 2021 (19.5°)
(30)...December 24, 2022 (19.5°)

By a large margin, February 12, 1899, remains the coldest with a statewide average of 9.5°.

[Ntxw]

CMC did sort of cave towards the GFS, not a winter storm yet, but a light wintry mix for parts of west, central and se texas

They both now show 2 surges of cold, one Sunday and another Mon-Tues.

[orangeblood]

I have seen some references to February 2021 when discussing future cold outbreaks. When I have seen them I have thought "I'm not sure everyone understands just how incredible that event was and how unlikely it is we will see something like that in our lifetimes!" In Austin, we had 5-6 days below freezing and 6" of snow and snow drifts several feet high! I know, I lived it and still have the videos.

But truth be told ... and there have been scientific papers written about it ... the depth, duration and scope of the cold in Texas was worse in December 1989 than February 2021. The cold snaps in 1951 and 1983 were very close to that as well.

I guess my perspective on 2021 as well as other Austinites is more severe due to the collapse of our local infrastructure (no water) and the near collapse of the state power grid. Also I have never seen 6" of snow and snow drifts of 2 feet in Austin in my 41 years here until that event. So all of that colors my perception.

Just some random thoughts this morning. If you're interested in reading a paper about comparing the events, here is a good one and the link:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0278

That article is a good one, although it does not consider the more frequent destabilizations of the stratospheric polar vortex associated with climate change. Winters in Texas are getting warmer overall. But because of the unstable SPV, the state is increasingly prone to severe Arctic outbreaks that used to happen only once every several decades. Hundreds to perhaps over 1,000 people died in Texas in February 2021 because of of extreme cold and grid failure. According to ERCOT, a repeat of that cold during this or next month would require load shedding. In that sense, the ERCOT managed grid is not fixed.

Climate Change ? Not sure exactly what you mean by that term - seems a little redundant, the climate is always changing ...has since the beginning of time and always will be! Humans need to constantly adapt to the ever-changing conditions - it's always been that way, nothing new

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I have seen some references to February 2021 when discussing future cold outbreaks. When I have seen them I have thought "I'm not sure everyone understands just how incredible that event was and how unlikely it is we will see something like that in our lifetimes!" In Austin, we had 5-6 days below freezing and 6" of snow and snow drifts several feet high! I know, I lived it and still have the videos.

But truth be told ... and there have been scientific papers written about it ... the depth, duration and scope of the cold in Texas was worse in December 1989 than February 2021. The cold snaps in 1951 and 1983 were very close to that as well.

I guess my perspective on 2021 as well as other Austinites is more severe due to the collapse of our local infrastructure (no water) and the near collapse of the state power grid. Also I have never seen 6" of snow and snow drifts of 2 feet in Austin in my 41 years here until that event. So all of that colors my perception.

Just some random thoughts this morning. If you're interested in reading a paper about comparing the events, here is a good one and the link:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0278

That article is a good one, although it does not consider the more frequent destabilizations of the stratospheric polar vortex associated with climate change. Winters in Texas are getting warmer overall. But because of the unstable SPV, the state is increasingly prone to severe Arctic outbreaks that used to happen only once every several decades. Hundreds to perhaps over 1,000 people died in Texas in February 2021 because of of extreme cold and grid failure. According to ERCOT, a repeat of that cold during this or next month would require load shedding. In that sense, the ERCOT managed grid is not fixed.

Feb '21 was a truly unique type of setup. I dare to say perfect for cold and snow for Texas. 1989 was just an absolute monster of a high pressure being shoved down into the plains. The arctic front coming is much more similar to 1989. I will read that article in a bit!

From my understanding, nothing specific to avoiding another Feb '21 incident has been done. With that said, I know solar has been a very big addition to the grid over the last couple years. Now, I say that is not something that will avoid another Feb '21 situation because it was very cloudy during that cold blast! With this particular cold blast, I would guess most of the state would have clear skies during the day, but at night.....

[wxman57]

At what temps would you decide to shut off water to the house?

The low would have to reach the upper teens to lower 20s if we're talking above-freezing by noon. If the temperature would be 30F or lower for 24 hours, I'd shut it off. Our pipes are in the attic and they're not extremely well insulated. Temperature in the attic may be a degree or two warmer than outside air, though.

[orangeblood]

CMC did sort of cave towards the GFS, not a winter storm yet, but a light wintry mix for parts of west, central and se texas

They both now show 2 surges of cold, one Sunday and another Mon-Tues.

Models continue to sniff out a system after that second surge...something attacking the dense cold 2nd HP anchored across the southern US. See it a lot more in the Northeast US than you do down here

[MississippiWx]

CMC caved to the GFS, major winter storm

Either its way slower than the GFS, or it’s seeing an entirely different system.

[Ntxw]

CMC did sort of cave towards the GFS, not a winter storm yet, but a light wintry mix for parts of west, central and se texas

They both now show 2 surges of cold, one Sunday and another Mon-Tues.

Models continue to sniff out a system after that second surge...something attacking the dense cold 2nd HP anchored across the southern US. See it a lot more in the Northeast US than you do down here

I don't think the models yet have a sense of what may happen. It could be they are trending faster with the leading of cold from the HP still way to the north, and even that far away it's plenty cold, as cold continues to filter in as it descends into the US. It'll stack cold as heights continue to rise.

[orangeblood]

CMC caved to the GFS, major winter storm

Either its way slower than the GFS, or it’s seeing an entirely different system.

They are picking up on S/W energy breaking thru the Northeast Pacific Ridge and riding down the back side of the US trough! You can see the energy here, the ripples moving thru the Alaskan ridge later this week. Way too early to know exactly how that energy will interact with the trough but something to now pay attention to