Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TeamPlayersBlue]

They both now show 2 surges of cold, one Sunday and another Mon-Tues.

Models continue to sniff out a system after that second surge...something attacking the dense cold 2nd HP anchored across the southern US. See it a lot more in the Northeast US than you do down here

I don't think the models yet have a sense of what may happen. It could be they are trending faster with the leading of cold from the HP still way to the north, and even that far away it's plenty cold, as cold continues to filter in as it descends into the US. It'll stack cold as heights continue to rise.

Agree. Fun to look at, shows the possibility at this point, but way too far out.

The only thing i would hang my hat on is the size of this HP slamming down into Texas WILL cause lift and produce precip, but the angle coming down the plains has to be right. It cant shunt off to the east.

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 14th, 00Z run):

21–10...(32–B02)...B02...0.63...Amarillo
35–23...(41–16).....17......0.08...Austin Camp Mabry
30–20...(35–14).....10......0.04...Dallas
42–27...(47–21).....20......0.04...Houston
23–11...(33–04).....01......0.24...Oklahoma City
22–12...(28–05).....B03...0.20...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, only Tulsa would not get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the EPS is 4.5° cooler than the GEFS and 8.6° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 14th, 06Z run):

24–13...(37–09)...B02...0.52...Amarillo
37–28...(44–22)...17.....0.83...Austin Camp Mabry
35–25...(40–21)...10.....0.39...Dallas
44–34...(49–29)...20.....0.13...Houston
27–21...(35–15)...01.....0.17...Oklahoma City
25–17...(34–13)...B03...0.04...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, only Austin Camp Mabry would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the GEFS is 13.1° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 14th, 00Z run):

10–B02...(20–B07)...B02...0.98...Amarillo
25–17.....(42–10)......17.....0.55...Austin Camp Mabry
21–15.....(30–09)......10.....0.28...Dallas
36–24.....(48–16)..... 20.....0.35...Houston
11–02.....(21–B02)....01.....0.51...Oklahoma City
12–02.....(19–B04)...B03...0.39...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations would break the existing record lows. At the 50th percentile, every station would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

[Bhow]

GEFS is almost in unanimous agreement on a winter storm now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Let's take a look at what we can hang our hat on. Looking at the models for Saturday, all the models upper levels look basically the same. Very very little difference.

[iorange55]

I have seen some references to February 2021 when discussing future cold outbreaks. When I have seen them I have thought "I'm not sure everyone understands just how incredible that event was and how unlikely it is we will see something like that in our lifetimes!" In Austin, we had 5-6 days below freezing and 6" of snow and snow drifts several feet high! I know, I lived it and still have the videos.

But truth be told ... and there have been scientific papers written about it ... the depth, duration and scope of the cold in Texas was worse in December 1989 than February 2021. The cold snaps in 1951 and 1983 were very close to that as well.

I guess my perspective on 2021 as well as other Austinites is more severe due to the collapse of our local infrastructure (no water) and the near collapse of the state power grid. Also I have never seen 6" of snow and snow drifts of 2 feet in Austin in my 41 years here until that event. So all of that colors my perception.

Just some random thoughts this morning. If you're interested in reading a paper about comparing the events, here is a good one and the link:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0278

That article is a good one, although it does not consider the more frequent destabilizations of the stratospheric polar vortex associated with climate change. Winters in Texas are getting warmer overall. But because of the unstable SPV, the state is increasingly prone to severe Arctic outbreaks that used to happen only once every several decades. Hundreds to perhaps over 1,000 people died in Texas in February 2021 because of of extreme cold and grid failure. According to ERCOT, a repeat of that cold during this or next month would require load shedding. In that sense, the ERCOT managed grid is not fixed.

Climate Change ? Not sure exactly what you mean by that term - seems a little redundant, the climate is always changing ...has since the beginning of time and always will be! Humans need to constantly adapt to the ever-changing conditions - it's always been that way, nothing new

https://xkcd.com/1732/

[Throckmorton]

At what temps would you decide to shut off water to the house?

The low would have to reach the upper teens to lower 20s if we're talking above-freezing by noon. If the temperature would be 30F or lower for 24 hours, I'd shut it off. Our pipes are in the attic and they're not extremely well insulated. Temperature in the attic may be a degree or two warmer than outside air, though.

Why not just drip all faucets instead?

[Ntxw]

GEFS is almost in unanimous agreement on a winter storm now.

Here is the 12z GEFS. Don't worry it will be in Oklahoma and Tennessee by this weekend's run (sarcasm). Theme of 2025, be north of the early predictions.

[Wthrfan]

Of the 35 coldest days (30 plus ties) in Texas history, six happened since the warming of the Texas climate accellerated in 1990. Here they are, with the statewide temperature average within parentheses:

(2)... :February 16, 2021 (12.0°)
(4).....February 15, 2021 (14.0°)
(11)...February 3, 2011 (16.0°)
(19)...February 4, 2011 (18.5°)
(30)...February 17, 2021 (19.5°)
(30)...December 24, 2022 (19.5°)

By a large margin, February 12, 1899, remains the coldest with a statewide average of 9.5°.

This is interesting. I have family in Austin and I've noticed a similar trend (and even more pronounced) with regards to the warmest Summer months on record.

[Wthrfan]

I have seen some references to February 2021 when discussing future cold outbreaks. When I have seen them I have thought "I'm not sure everyone understands just how incredible that event was and how unlikely it is we will see something like that in our lifetimes!" In Austin, we had 5-6 days below freezing and 6" of snow and snow drifts several feet high! I know, I lived it and still have the videos.

But truth be told ... and there have been scientific papers written about it ... the depth, duration and scope of the cold in Texas was worse in December 1989 than February 2021. The cold snaps in 1951 and 1983 were very close to that as well.

I guess my perspective on 2021 as well as other Austinites is more severe due to the collapse of our local infrastructure (no water) and the near collapse of the state power grid. Also I have never seen 6" of snow and snow drifts of 2 feet in Austin in my 41 years here until that event. So all of that colors my perception.

Just some random thoughts this morning. If you're interested in reading a paper about comparing the events, here is a good one and the link:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0278

That article is a good one, although it does not consider the more frequent destabilizations of the stratospheric polar vortex associated with climate change. Winters in Texas are getting warmer overall. But because of the unstable SPV, the state is increasingly prone to severe Arctic outbreaks that used to happen only once every several decades. Hundreds to perhaps over 1,000 people died in Texas in February 2021 because of of extreme cold and grid failure. According to ERCOT, a repeat of that cold during this or next month would require load shedding. In that sense, the ERCOT managed grid is not fixed.

Climate Change ? Not sure exactly what you mean by that term - seems a little redundant, the climate is always changing ...has since the beginning of time and always will be! Humans need to constantly adapt to the ever-changing conditions - it's always been that way, nothing new

Agree with your premise. However, we are seeing a warming trend over the last 30 years over many areas of the country, especially Texas. The impossible question to answer (in my opinion) is how much of this can be attributed to normal climate variation and how much is anthropogenic in nature.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro caved to the GFS, significant winter storm

[Ntxw]

12z Euro is uneventful Sunday passage of cold front. Tuesday is statewide winter storm. Heavier qpf in the southern part of the state. Area from just north of Houston to Toledo Bend reservoir ground zero, everyone else chasing ratios.

[wxman57]

At what temps would you decide to shut off water to the house?

The low would have to reach the upper teens to lower 20s if we're talking above-freezing by noon. If the temperature would be 30F or lower for 24 hours, I'd shut it off. Our pipes are in the attic and they're not extremely well insulated. Temperature in the attic may be a degree or two warmer than outside air, though.

Why not just drip all faucets instead?

No guarantee that the very slowly running water won't still freeze in the pipes. What I did last January was stay up all night and turn on the hot water in the tap farthest from the water inlet (east bathroom). I'd let the hot water flow for a few minutes to get the pipes nice and warm. Our cold and hot pipes are attached side-by side in the attic. Running the hot water every hour or two would heat both pipes above freezing. That tactic won't work if your pipes are not next to one-another.

You have to understand that if the pipes in the attic DO freeze, they'll likely break in one or more areas. When they thaw, your house could be flooded. That brings up the need to be very clear on how to quickly shut off water to your house. On our house, there is a valve right on the hose bib that shuts off water entering the house. I shut that off and open all inside faucets to drain the pipes. Doing that is better than gambling on a flooded house.

[Ntxw]

Also high pressure on the Euro maps would probably get close to all time records for a few locations.

[FloppaHorn]

Thanks for that advice @waxman.
We have a similar setup in my house/attic. We let the shower slightly run all night; however, at some point it froze. Luckily, none of the pipes ended up busting. I took several trips to the attic to put handwarmers along the pipes. I like your idea better.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Another arctic air intrusion increasingly likely late this weekend.

A threat for sub-freezing temperatures (possible hard freezes)

Precipitation possible in the cold air early next week

Cold Air:
Guidance has been coming into slightly better agreement that cold air currently located over northern Siberia will be directed across the north pole and into northwest Canada late this week. Current temperatures in the source region in northern Siberia are in the -40F to -50F range. Strong surface high pressure (1050mb+) develops over NW Canda late this week and slides toward the Montana and North Dakota border region by this weekend with a strong arctic air mass surging down the plains. Initial air mass looks to arrive into Texas on Saturday…reaching our area Saturday afternoon with a significant temperature gradient along the front with temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s ahead of the boundary falling into the 40’s and 50’s behind the boundary. A secondary surge of colder air looks to arrive late Sunday and this will likely drive the freezing line quickly into the area with temperatures falling into the 20’s and 30’s by Monday morning. Given the intensity of the high pressure crossing into the US…may need to trend temperatures down some for late Sunday into Monday…but would like to see a bit better consistency in the guidance before following that trend. Hard freezes (24 or lower for 2 hours or more) look possible over portions of the area by Monday and Tuesday mornings. Overall the setup looks at least a few degrees colder than last week and could be more…it is uncertain at this time range how cold temperatures may get locally. It is also hard to tell if we will recover much during the day…if clouds and precipitation are in place the potential for daytime highs only in the low to mid 30’s will be possible…if it is more sunny highs will reach into the 40’s.

Precipitation:
Once the cold air is in place there is some potential for a mid level shortwave trough to move across the southern portions of the state in the Mon-Tues period with a coastal low forming off the lower TX coast. Overall pattern looks colder and further south than the coastal low last week which will bring a possible threat of frozen/freezing precipitation to the area during this period. Deterministic guidance is widely varying, but the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensembles all show at least some potential for a wintery mix of precipitation, a cold rain, or just plain dry for the area during this period. A brief look at forecast temperature profiles support various precipitation types and changes through the period. Since we are still talking 6-7 days out…this is very much a portion of the forecast that will almost certainly see various changes over the next few days.

Monitor forecasts closely through the week and be prepared to take winter weather precautions and winterization efforts by this weekend.

[wxman22]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also high pressure on the Euro maps would probably get close to all time records for a few locations.

Holy moly. I use tropical tidbits and its usually slow to update. Pics?

[txtwister78]

Well regardless of the individual operational runs, it's clear the ensembles are becoming more bullish today on winter precip impacting the state early next week and so now we watch for trends.

The 12z GFS has definitely trended colder for Tuesday. Wind chills on most models now in the single digits with highs across SC TX in the low to mid 20's with single digit readings for low temps into early morning Wed. Ouch

[Ntxw]

Also high pressure on the Euro maps would probably get close to all time records for a few locations.

Holy moly. I use tropical tidbits and its usually slow to update. Pics?

I meant for Texas. 1053mb or so is Amarillo's record.

[DallasAg]

DFW catching up on the deficit of freezes for the winter. As of Jan 1 we were at just 1 (Dec 6th) versus normal of 10.5. We've strung together 10 in a row now, so we're at 11 versus a normal of about 16 through Jan 15th. Plenty of opportunities to catch up or get ahead over the next couple of weeks.