Texas Winter 2024-2025

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Pressure versus temperature- I would think if there isn't much of a snowpack Nebraska to Oklahoma the airmass will modify more moving over dark ground. At work or I'd look for an existing snow cover map.

It’s going to be cold enough. We aren’t talking about that this go around, like last week.

[snownado]

Since we're relying so much on AI, this is what it says about the temps next week:

Next week is going to be quite chilly in Dallas, Texas! An arctic front is expected to bring freezing temperatures. Here's a brief overview:

- **Sunday**: Highs around 36°F (2°C), lows near 20°F (-6°C).
- **Monday**: Highs around 33°F (0°C), lows around 20°F (-6°C).
- **Tuesday**: Highs around 34°F (1°C), lows around 24°F (-4°C).

It looks like it might even snow on Monday and Tuesday, so you might want to bundle up and prepare for some cold!

[Stratton23]

18z Euro is running laps around the GFS lol

[BigB0882]

18z Euro is running laps around the GFS lol

What does that mean?

[Stratton23]

BigB0882 just my way of saying the Euro is handeling the pattern way better than the gfs haha

[Stratton23]

one thing that gets my attention or curiosity on that Euro 18z run is, notice after the main storm system moves out on wednesday, this run has phased the trough with the baja cut off low underneath the west coast ridge and actually is moving the baja low east on the run at hour 144, the run stops there, but im wondering if we could perhaps see multiple rounds of wintry precipitation and not just one

[TomballEd]

One thing about ChatGP on Europe, Mentions Euro ensembles. GFS has ensembles, although I believe they run at half the op resolution. I believe the Euro ensembles now run the same resolution as the op Euro, there is no need for a control run.

[txtwister78]

one thing that gets my attention or curiosity on that Euro 18z run is, notice after the main storm system moves out on wednesday, this run has phased the trough with the baja cut off low underneath the west coast ridge and actually is moving the baja low east on the run at hour 144, the run stops there, but im wondering if we could perhaps see multiple rounds of wintry precipitation and not just one

12z run similar. Going to be a timing issue to see how much cold is still around. Still some time to watch though to see how it evolves.

[MississippiWx]

What does the 18z Euro look like compared to 12z? Pivotal weather doesn’t show 18z.

[Quicksilver17]

one thing that gets my attention or curiosity on that Euro 18z run is, notice after the main storm system moves out on wednesday, this run has phased the trough with the baja cut off low underneath the west coast ridge and actually is moving the baja low east on the run at hour 144, the run stops there, but im wondering if we could perhaps see multiple rounds of wintry precipitation and not just one

Stratton23,
Been away all day. Your post caught my eye for our area. Are we still in line with at least one day next week of Wintery weather? Also, will that snowpack help much to bring our temps down when the arctic air gets here? I don't know how much of an impact that makes even though I hear you guys discuss it often. Be nice to get some snow throughout the day and not just for a short hour or two.

[Stratton23]

Quicksilver17 oh yes, se texas including tomball, well its definitely starting to look a bit more likely that we will see a icy mess on tuesday, now granted their still is plenty of time for this to change, etc more snow, sleet etc). but id say confidence is definitely growing in the prospects of seeing frozen precipitation down here

[orangeblood]

18Z Euro ENS continue to get more confident in Texas Winter precip next week, starting as early as Monday…inside 5 days

Snow accumulation map is 10:1 ratios, reasonable to expect 50-100% higher totals with this type of deep cold airmass

[Gotwood]

18Z Euro ENS continue to get more confident in Texas Winter precip next week, starting as early as Monday…inside 5 days

Snow accumulation map is 10:1 ratios, reasonable to expect 50-100% higher totals with this type of deep cold airmass

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/precip_24hr_inch/1736964000/1737482400-0Lw9EXNPikg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1736964000/1737482400-FNUq74rDcpk.png

I want to believe but I’m not going to get excited until we are day of and it’s still on the table lol.

[aggiecutter]

Some on here have very short, or selective, memories. The EURO's snowfall forecast for Northern and NE Texas was awful for last week's storm. It consistently forecast 8-10" of snow for this area for about 5 days. The northern suburbs of DFW received some snow, but not anywhere near the forecasted 8-10". Texarkana received no snow at all, but we had a significant Ice-Storm. The 8-10" of snow the EURO consistently forecast for this area ended up in the Ouachita Mountains of Central Arkansas.

[Cpv17]

18Z Euro ENS continue to get more confident in Texas Winter precip next week, starting as early as Monday…inside 5 days

Snow accumulation map is 10:1 ratios, reasonable to expect 50-100% higher totals with this type of deep cold airmass

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/precip_24hr_inch/1736964000/1737482400-0Lw9EXNPikg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1736964000/1737482400-FNUq74rDcpk.png

Really hoping for a southern expansion of this over the coming days. Don’t like the looks of things for SE TX today on the models.

[Quicksilver17]

Quicksilver17 oh yes, se texas including tomball, well its definitely starting to look a bit more likely that we will see a icy mess on tuesday, now granted their still is plenty of time for this to change, etc more snow, sleet etc). but id say confidence is definitely growing in the prospects of seeing frozen precipitation down here

[3090]

BigB0882 just my way of saying the Euro is handeling the pattern way better than the gfs haha

Always does.

[Ralph's Weather]

Some on here have very short, or selective, memories. The EURO's snowfall forecast for Northern and NE Texas was awful for last week's storm. It consistently forecast 8-10" of snow for this area for about 5 days. The northern suburbs of DFW received some snow, but not anywhere near the forecasted 8-10". Texarkana received no snow at all, but we had a significant Ice-Storm. The 8-10" of snow the EURO consistently forecast for this area ended up in the Ouachita Mountains of Central Arkansas.

That's not a bad forecast on the Euro. That is a miss by 1 degree. Euro was great on last storm.

[Ntxw]

Some on here have very short, or selective, memories. The EURO's snowfall forecast for Northern and NE Texas was awful for last week's storm. It consistently forecast 8-10" of snow for this area for about 5 days. The northern suburbs of DFW received some snow, but not anywhere near the forecasted 8-10". Texarkana received no snow at all, but we had a significant Ice-Storm. The 8-10" of snow the EURO consistently forecast for this area ended up in the Ouachita Mountains of Central Arkansas.

That's not a bad forecast on the Euro. That is a miss by 1 degree. Euro was great on last storm.

I agree and that was a temperature profile miss, not necessarily a pattern miss. It's a different set up.

[Ntxw]

We do need to look for more qpf now though, this set up is all about how much moisture we can get unlike the last time. While we don't like the GFS, too cold for moisture is a problem but there is enough of a northern stream to agitate the flow. It's an overall not as potent with moisture event which was pretty secure with the last system.

You want it to dig far to the west to draw up Pacific and Gulf at the mid and lower levels. And maybe a little less cold would help.