Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[hurricanehunter69]

No way can the GFS be right on this one. We have a perfect set up this time! We've had this super active jet streaming moisture over the gulf coast all winter long. It's raining outside right now....again!

[Jag95]

The 0Z ICON, UKMet and Canadian are still in one corner staring across the ring at the GFS. The Euro is still running.
<edit> The EURO makes it 4 to one. It does look a little weaker with the precip than the 12Z though, with a stronger push of cold air.

The 0z run of the Euro took a major jump towards the GFS. The similarity at 500mb is much closer now. Beginning to think people may need to apologize to the GFS over the coming days. Let’s hope not, but not a fan of tonight’s run at all.

That was my thoughts when I saw it...looks a lot closer to the GFS. Might see the GFS pull a John Wick. Hope not but considering that I think it handled the last Gulf system the best....well, I'm used to it.

[Ivanhater]

We are now 5 days out. I suspect we will know if the GFS wins a big coup by the afternoon models

[3090]

We are now 5 days out. I suspect we will know if the GFS wins a big coup by the afternoon models

Latest EURO ensembles show all snow for southeast Louisiana. Not sure what the ensembles indicate for any other areas. GFS outside 5 days you can throw out the window.

BTW…most recent GFS ensembles indicate all snow and greater coverage than the operationals.

[Ivanhater]

We are now 5 days out. I suspect we will know if the GFS wins a big coup by the afternoon models

Latest EURO ensembles show all snow for southeast Louisiana. Not sure what the ensembles indicate for any other areas. GFS outside 5 days you can throw out the window.

I hope you're right but the overnight Euro Op going in the wrong direction gives me pause

[3090]

We are now 5 days out. I suspect we will know if the GFS wins a big coup by the afternoon models

Latest EURO ensembles show all snow for southeast Louisiana. Not sure what the ensembles indicate for any other areas. GFS outside 5 days you can throw out the window.

I hope you're right but the overnight Euro Op going in the wrong direction gives me pause

Put your fears away for now. Most recent GFS ensembles show more in line with the most recent EURO ensembles. Operationals you can throw out for the GFS at this point IMO.

[MississippiWx]

Latest EURO ensembles show all snow for southeast Louisiana. Not sure what the ensembles indicate for any other areas. GFS outside 5 days you can throw out the window.

I hope you're right but the overnight Euro Op going in the wrong direction gives me pause

Put your fears away for now. Most recent GFS ensembles show more in line with the most recent EURO ensembles. Operationals you can throw out for the GFS at this point IMO.

Lol. Yeah, I’m not throwing away those fears. The 6z Euro has gone completely to the GFS. No storm in sight. Looks like a major win for the GFS and another letdown for the South.

[3090]

I hope you're right but the overnight Euro Op going in the wrong direction gives me pause

Put your fears away for now. Most recent GFS ensembles show more in line with the most recent EURO ensembles. Operationals you can throw out for the GFS at this point IMO.

Lol. Yeah, I’m not throwing away those fears. The 6z Euro has gone completely to the GFS. No storm in sight. Looks like a major win for the GFS and another letdown for the South.

Yep it now appears that way unless something suddenly flips back. Frigid air on the way for sure now.

[BigB0882]

This is so depressing. If I ever catch that Lucy!!!

[MississippiWx]

This is so depressing. If I ever catch that Lucy!!!

Yeah…tough living in the South and loving snow. Just too many things can go wrong. This was likely our last chance as the pattern looks to flip to Western trough the last part of winter. It’s not zero chance yet for this one to work out, but trending that way fast.

[MississippiWx]

12z ICON is the most amped run yet with the largest amount of precipitation yet. Wild how different models are handling this.

[BigB0882]

12z ICON is the most amped run yet with the largest amount of precipitation yet. Wild how different models are handling this.

That ICON is so close to a huge storm for SELA but it looks like most of us would be rain. So so close. I wish it would be snow all the way to the coast.

[ArcticOutbreak1989]

Comparing past winter weather events over the years, isn’t it pretty common for models to lose it in about the 5 day range then bring it back?

[cajungal]

12z ICON is the most amped run yet with the largest amount of precipitation yet. Wild how different models are handling this.

And yet my area just 60 miles SW of New Orleans still ends up with nothing with that map. Like a repeat of Dec 2008 when everyone around me got it but me

[Steve]

CMC has a severe ice and snow hit for much of the south. It's not along the coast from SELA to points eastward, but that's trouble for some inland spots and would affect TX/LA/MS/AL/GA/SC. So if someone who didn't get it wanted to see snow or ice, it wouldn't be a far drive if the 12z CMC is right. It also has the single digits almost all the way to the coast, so it may be too cold else this would be a historic outbreak.

[MississippiWx]

12z ICON is the most amped run yet with the largest amount of precipitation yet. Wild how different models are handling this.

And yet my area just 60 miles SW of New Orleans still ends up with nothing with that map. Like a repeat of Dec 2008 when everyone around me got it but me

I wouldn't get too caught up in precipitation types yet. Need to nail down precipitation first, and then worry about types. Cold air should be abundant.

[Ivanhater]

12z UKmet massive ice storm for Gulf coast

[BigB0882]

Looks like the Euro is back on board!

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the Euro is back on board!

Woohoo!! A lot of us needed talked off the ledge overnight

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro back in a big way

Mostly snow all the way to the Gulf coast!

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