Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5941 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:21 pm

Right on cue our met up here even posted about another threat midweek next week

These things always shift NW don't they?
Last edited by Brent on Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5942 Postby utpmg » Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:21 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
utpmg wrote:So, I'm leaving Austin Saturday for 5 days of camping in the Big Bend area. (I'm gonna leave my water off!) What I've been gathering so far is that out there the forecasts have been consistently dry over that period, looks like lows maybe 20-25 at worst now. More concerned with wind, but it seems that's mostly Saturday night Sunday morning after FROPA.


We are going to Alpine to visit friends this weekend. Headed to the park Saturday, probably hike in the Basin and maybe head across the border to Boquillas. Perhaps our paths will cross.


Primitive camping for two nights thence 3 nights in the interior of Big Bend Ranch SP.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5943 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:42 pm

18z Euro AI

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5944 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:50 pm



Somewhere on the northern fringe, there will be a combo of adequate moisture and cold air to produce some high ratios.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5945 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:55 pm

bubba hotep wrote:


Somewhere on the northern fringe, there will be a combo of adequate moisture and cold air to produce some high ratios.


Powdered sugar they say.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5946 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:


Somewhere on the northern fringe, there will be a combo of adequate moisture and cold air to produce some high ratios.


Powdered sugar they say.


If that coastal low can hit the sweet spot and arc a bit, you could see someone on the NW side of that shield get absolutely pummeled in SETX. Especially rural parts from the western viewing areas up through the northern burbs of Houston.

It wouldn’t shock me if we get a Euro solution that someone sees 10 plus.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5947 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:01 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5948 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:04 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5949 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:09 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5950 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:10 pm

It’s been a long day and just now taking a peek at things. Still coming together about like I’m expecting. No changes in my thinking at this time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5951 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:15 pm

Cpv17 wrote:


Thanks. Looks pretty good. Hoping it can sag a few miles further south just to be safe.


You can still get snow being south of the 540 line. It is just an average of the air density and temperature between 1000mb to 500. Some might melt and refreeze as sleet, but as long as the melting layer is minimal, you can still get quite a bit of snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5952 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:16 pm

When is the next model run?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5953 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:18 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:When is the next model run?


ICON will start running soon and be done within the next hour or so, then it's GFS/Canadian once that's complete. We'll see the Euro about an hour or so after that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5954 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:20 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5955 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:21 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Lets keep this moving north without robbing our friends to the south of their winter fun!!

I'm hoping for similar to last week with a good enough phase and strong enough northern stream to expand the NW side significantly without robbing the SE side too much. Would suck for us in between I30 and I10 to get the shaft. Though looks like a few more chances over the next couple weeks so I'm confident we get ours eventually.
I am rooting for the Canadian which has been very consistent with hammering the middle sections.
Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5956 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:23 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:


Thanks. Looks pretty good. Hoping it can sag a few miles further south just to be safe.


You can still get snow being south of the 540 line. It is just an average of the air density and temperature between 1000mb to 500. Some might melt and refreeze as sleet, but as long as the melting layer is minimal, you can still get quite a bit of snow.


Yeah, that’s what I was thinking cuz I remember being south of it before and receiving snow. I would just prefer to be as close to it as possible just to be safe lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5957 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:28 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Lets keep this moving north without robbing our friends to the south of their winter fun!!

I'm hoping for similar to last week with a good enough phase and strong enough northern stream to expand the NW side significantly without robbing the SE side too much. Would suck for us in between I30 and I10 to get the shaft. Though looks like a few more chances over the next couple weeks so I'm confident we get ours eventually.


We're really looking for the northern stream to deliver. The area basically from Waco to Lufkin to Shreveport line on north is looking for the amped solution for a more saturated atmosphere and an invigorated shortwave coming in from the north. High ratios will be fun and can overperform but a flatter wave won't cut it.

Those below that line have the qpf treasury, the more qpf the models trend the more impact, with some warmth maybe near the 700mb layer closer to the coast for snow/sleet etc due to that surge in moisture. That's hard to predict this far ahead. But this is a rare event for down there and the models have been fairly consistent that region sees something at least minus a few outlier runs.

The region where these two meet will likely get a significant snow storm with just right temps and decent qpf, right now central TX -> Toledo bend but this can shift.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5958 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:41 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Lets keep this moving north without robbing our friends to the south of their winter fun!!

I'm hoping for similar to last week with a good enough phase and strong enough northern stream to expand the NW side significantly without robbing the SE side too much. Would suck for us in between I30 and I10 to get the shaft. Though looks like a few more chances over the next couple weeks so I'm confident we get ours eventually.


We're really looking for the northern stream to deliver. The area basically from Waco to Lufkin to Shreveport line on north is looking for the amped solution for a more saturated atmosphere and an invigorated shortwave coming in from the north. High ratios will be fun and can overperform but a flatter wave won't cut it.

Those below that line have the qpf treasury, the more qpf the models trend the more impact, with some warmth maybe near the 700mb layer closer to the coast for snow/sleet etc due to that surge in moisture. That's hard to predict this far ahead. But this is a rare event for down there and the models have been fairly consistent that region sees something at least minus a few outlier runs.

The region where these two meet will likely get a significant snow storm with just right temps and decent qpf, right now central TX -> Toledo bend but this can shift.

100% agree on this. Along and south of I10 could see a solid mix. I10 north into Deep E TX could see moderate to heavy wet snow. I20 will be powder if precip can make it up that far north.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5959 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Lets keep this moving north without robbing our friends to the south of their winter fun!!

I'm hoping for similar to last week with a good enough phase and strong enough northern stream to expand the NW side significantly without robbing the SE side too much. Would suck for us in between I30 and I10 to get the shaft. Though looks like a few more chances over the next couple weeks so I'm confident we get ours eventually.


We're really looking for the northern stream to deliver. The area basically from Waco to Lufkin to Shreveport line on north is looking for the amped solution for a more saturated atmosphere and an invigorated shortwave coming in from the north. High ratios will be fun and can overperform but a flatter wave won't cut it.

Those below that line have the qpf treasury, the more qpf the models trend the more impact, with some warmth maybe near the 700mb layer closer to the coast for snow/sleet etc due to that surge in moisture. That's hard to predict this far ahead. But this is a rare event for down there and the models have been fairly consistent that region sees something at least minus a few outlier runs.

The region where these two meet will likely get a significant snow storm with just right temps and decent qpf, right now central TX -> Toledo bend but this can shift.


Or the energy on the back side of the LW trough disconnects from it, similar to what the Euro AI is showing. It even goes neutral to almost negative tilt as it moves east across Texas. That’s how we could get a much bigger storm system out of this setup

Euro AI right after the energy gets left behind
Image

Euro still has the energy somewhat attached and strung out, making for a smaller system
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5960 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Jan 16, 2025 9:52 pm

Since most of the action is south of us with below freezing temps, I'm thinking the forecasted temps are too high for the DFW area. With the strength of the cold air push I think temps should trend down in the next couple days. Which makes me wonder about my drive home Monday evening.
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