Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6241 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:24 pm

Gulf lows almost always trend north and bring in more warm air than is modeled on NE side.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6242 Postby Sambucol2024 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:41 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Mid 20’s on the nam12k 00z, nasty ice/ sleet storm in se texas, warm nose shows its ugly head, yuckkk

That would wreak havoc on ERCOT.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6243 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:44 pm

GEFS ensemble members precip type output.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6244 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:47 pm

GEFS mean increased to 3-5 inches
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6245 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:47 pm

Stratton23 wrote:ThunderSleetDreams for snow for se texas it is, stronger warm nose is the trend, thats not good


Again, you get hung up on that. That’s not going to come to fruition with this. Models don’t handle these well. Old school spider senses aren’t detecting that at all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6246 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:51 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:Gulf lows almost always trend north and bring in more warm air than is modeled on NE side.


Ralph knows. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6247 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:52 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6248 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:54 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:ThunderSleetDreams for snow for se texas it is, stronger warm nose is the trend, thats not good


Again, you get hung up on that. That’s not going to come to fruition with this. Models don’t handle these well. Old school spider senses aren’t detecting that at all.
I had your confidence last week and 1 degree turned Tyler from a potential heavy snow to barely even any sleet. Column was 32/33 all the way up. Front sauce of coastal lows are a precarious place to be. Better Arctic air this time but still a risky play.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6249 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:56 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:Gulf lows almost always trend north and bring in more warm air than is modeled on NE side.


Ralph knows. :wink:
Learned a hard lesson last week. All the way up here and still not a flake until flurries the day after. That back side always comes in quick and often before the column fully cools to snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6250 Postby jasons2k » Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:03 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:
jasons2k wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:Gulf lows almost always trend north and bring in more warm air than is modeled on NE side.


Ralph knows. :wink:
Learned a hard lesson last week. All the way up here and still not a flake until flurries the day after. That back side always comes in quick and often before the column fully cools to snow.


I've been preparing for an ice storm since Sunday. We have pine trees and live oaks everywhere. The snow on top will be a bonus.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6251 Postby jasons2k » Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:06 am

I also would not be surprised to see a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow falling at my location literally at the same time during the changeover. I've seen it a few times in my lifetime and this setup looks like one of them.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6252 Postby Sambucol2024 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:07 am

jasons2k wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
jasons2k wrote:
Ralph knows. :wink:
Learned a hard lesson last week. All the way up here and still not a flake until flurries the day after. That back side always comes in quick and often before the column fully cools to snow.


I've been preparing for an ice storm since Sunday. We have pine trees and live oaks everywhere. The snow on top will be a bonus.


That is what we have been preparing for this week. Ice storm but hoping it will only be snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6253 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:35 am

Euro is an absolute mess for se texas, combination of 4-6 inches of snow on top of an inch of sleet and .10 to .25 of ice, definitely not getting close to freezing on tuesday and likely would struggle to reach freezing on wednesday, travel would be impossible
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6254 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:42 am

Stratton23 wrote:Euro is an absolute mess for se texas, combination of 4-6 inches of snow on top of an inch of sleet and .10 to .25 of ice, definitely not getting close to freezing on tuesday and likely would struggle to reach freezing on wednesday, travel would be impossible


Euro has up to 10 inches of snow actually in Liberty County now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6255 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:47 am

00z Euro :eek:

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Last edited by PTrackerLA on Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6256 Postby DW5522 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:48 am

Stratton23 wrote:Euro is an absolute mess for se texas, combination of 4-6 inches of snow on top of an inch of sleet and .10 to .25 of ice, definitely not getting close to freezing on tuesday and likely would struggle to reach freezing on wednesday, travel would be impossible

Shoot bud that’s just what ya want! Throw down a little ice and then 4 to 6 on top and then a couple cold days to lock it in place! Now that’s a snow day that lingers for a while.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6257 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:49 am

The euro has a 2nd system swinging through on late thursday- friday , bringing another round of mixed precipitation
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6258 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 1:00 am

Latest WPC total QPF. Notice the trends from previous run further north/west. Not a good sign when most of this will be frozen of some kind.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6259 Postby TomballEd » Sat Jan 18, 2025 1:10 am

Difference in early morning temps Wednesday on the models is impressive.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6260 Postby TropicalTundra » Sat Jan 18, 2025 1:11 am

Front through FW, heading through Dallas now.
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