Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6381 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 9:15 pm

I'm back and thanks for the kind words everyone.

So I did lots of driving between Carrollton/Denton/Ponder Friday and today. Why are they treating all the roads?

What do they know that we don’t?
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6382 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 18, 2025 9:21 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:I'm back and thanks for the kind words everyone.

So I did lots of driving between Carrollton/Denton/Ponder Friday and today. Why are they treating all the roads?

What do they know that we don’t?


They often treat where they don’t need to. lol

It’s down to 32 in north Fort Worth.
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Wthrfan
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6383 Postby Wthrfan » Sat Jan 18, 2025 9:23 pm

Just got back into Edmond from Dallas. Stopped just north of Denton and it was 46 degrees, 41 in Gainesville and 32 in Ardmore. Distance between
these is 25 miles and 30 miles, respectively. 14 degree drop in just 55 miles.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6384 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 9:40 pm

txwxwatcher wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:I see a lot of people saying Houston metro from the latest GFS but what does NW Harris to the Woodlands look like?


18Z GFS has The Woodlands in the main core of the snow with 3-5" of snow. It has very little snow inside Beltway 8 and none inside 610. Of course, it's almost certainly wrong, as are most models from this far out.




Can you help me understand this map, then? It’s the 18z GFS 10:1 total snowfall map, and I interpreted it to show 5 inches or so in metro Houston. What am I missing?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&fh=72


It actually shows 5-8" across northern Houston area. Has 8" in The Woodlands. I don't know if you can zoom in to a local or regional level without subscribing. Here's a link to a local SE TX view:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011818&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_state_tx_se&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=gfs
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6385 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 18, 2025 9:51 pm

And we're officially below freezing til Wednesday :cold: :froze:
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6386 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 18, 2025 9:55 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I'm back and thanks for the kind words everyone.

So I did lots of driving between Carrollton/Denton/Ponder Friday and today. Why are they treating all the roads?

What do they know that we don’t?


They often treat where they don’t need to. lol

It’s down to 32 in north Fort Worth.


As a tax payer it makes me wonder what the cost is........
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6387 Postby Fifty Rock » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:17 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I'm back and thanks for the kind words everyone.

So I did lots of driving between Carrollton/Denton/Ponder Friday and today. Why are they treating all the roads?

What do they know that we don’t?


They often treat where they don’t need to. lol

It’s down to 32 in north Fort Worth.


As a tax payer it makes me wonder what the cost is........


Simple, the tax payers complain when they don’t do enough and it gets bad and the tax payers complain when they do enough and it doesn’t get bad. Sometimes we seem to forget the people making those decision's and the ones doing the work are tax payers as well. Salt brine is a very minimal cost compared to magnesium chloride once you have a skating rink on the roads.
Last edited by Fifty Rock on Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6388 Postby TomballEd » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:26 pm

NAM isn't excited.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6389 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:27 pm

Nam is ice in Houston from the maps. No snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6390 Postby Steve » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:31 pm

TomballEd wrote:NAM isn't excited.



FV3 Hi-Res is singing a different tune. Still ice but snow too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1900&fh=60
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6391 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:33 pm

Steve wrote:
TomballEd wrote:NAM isn't excited.



FV3 Hi-Res is singing a different tune.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1900&fh=60
gonna be real hard for a long and south of I10 to get snow with the low that far north.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6392 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:35 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Steve wrote:
TomballEd wrote:NAM isn't excited.



FV3 Hi-Res is singing a different tune.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1900&fh=60
gonna be real hard for a long and south of I10 to get snow with the low that far north.


Well see if you are right even the GFS has been shifting the snow line further south in recent runs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6393 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:42 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
Steve wrote:

FV3 Hi-Res is singing a different tune.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1900&fh=60
gonna be real hard for a long and south of I10 to get snow with the low that far north.


Well see if you are right even the GFS has been shifting the snow line further south in recent runs.


Fair but there's also usually a NW trend with these... If we go with that... I see where he's coming from

Still over 2 days out too
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6394 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:43 pm

Hi res all over the place with either heavy ice or heavy snow. RGEM paralyzes SETX
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6395 Postby Gotwood » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:46 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
Steve wrote:

FV3 Hi-Res is singing a different tune.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1900&fh=60
gonna be real hard for a long and south of I10 to get snow with the low that far north.


Well see if you are right even the GFS has been shifting the snow line further south in recent runs.

Smart money is listen to the guy who just got an inch of rain a week ago when it was modeled to be a foot of snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6396 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:47 pm

How good are high res models at 48+ hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6397 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:48 pm

I just remember two things last week... Half of Dallas not getting any snow when they were supposed to get buried too and us going from an inch to 6 inches as the snow was falling... NW trends just seem to be inevitable no matter what
Last edited by Brent on Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6398 Postby Steve » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:48 pm

IcyTundra wrote:How good are high res models at 48+ hours.


They are the future so we gonna find out. Expect more adjustments however they go.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6399 Postby Steve » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:53 pm

GFS with snow across central Texas.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?fh=57
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6400 Postby Nederlander » Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:
txwxwatcher wrote:
wxman57 wrote:18Z GFS has The Woodlands in the main core of the snow with 3-5" of snow. It has very little snow inside Beltway 8 and none inside 610. Of course, it's almost certainly wrong, as are most models from this far out.


Can you help me understand this map, then? It’s the 18z GFS 10:1 total snowfall map, and I interpreted it to show 5 inches or so in metro Houston. What am I missing?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&fh=72

It actually shows 5-8" across northern Houston area. Has 8" in The Woodlands. I don't know if you can zoom in to a local or regional level without subscribing. Here's a link to a local SE TX view:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011818&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_state_tx_se&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=gfs


You can zoom into a regional view, local requires a sub:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011818&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_sc&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=gfs

I am in Montgomery County between The Woodlands and Conroe. Expecting anywhere from 3-6”.
Last edited by Nederlander on Sat Jan 18, 2025 11:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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