Texas Winter 2024-2025

[richtrav]

If we're looking for an analog (it's the one showing up) is February 1989. Starts as Aleutian ridge with very similar teleconnections noted above. It was a shallow air mass and there was definitely some kind of ice storm in there. It was a brief but sharp cold snap, though we're not going to see the 1078mb (record) up in Alaska and Canada. That would be the ceiling if using analogs.

https://i.imgur.com/FPIaoAa.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Ps6vvsu.gif

I remember that freeze, Alaska had been brutally cold most of the month of January, while the lower 48 had been exceptionally warm. It took nearly a month for the air mass to build up before it finally came down in early February. IIRC Seattle got very cold in that outbreak, I think Vegas did too. At the time in TX the analog they kept mentioning was the big 1951 freeze.

[txtwister78]

Man, remember that big snowstorm models had a few days ago across W TX....going...going...gone. Never bought into that one despite several models advertising it. Just didn't fit the pattern.

[Brent]

Man, remember that big snowstorm models had a few days ago across W TX....going...going...gone. Never bought into that one despite several models advertising it. Just didn't fit the pattern.

Yup not even any cold air showing up on the apps now either Sunday is pushing 70(!!) and next week is seasonal now

Oh well at least it's going to be wet we can always use that

[txtwister78]

[gpsnowman]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Perhaps a warm Super Bowl after all. Either way smoked ribs are on the table. Hopefully we get one more shot at snow. Once March hits it can be 80 for all I care. I am excited about the thunderstorms this week.

[Stratton23]

It will be a fight for sure, but i have no doubt the cold air will eventually overwhelm the pattern, it might be delayed a little ( around the 10th or so) but their is absolutely no way we will be torching with the EPO/ WPO taking a big nosedive, even the AO has trended slightly negative on the GEFS, the cold push will come, just might take a bit longer than originally thought

[txtwister78]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Perhaps a warm Super Bowl after all. Either way smoked ribs are on the table. Hopefully we get one more shot at snow. Once March hits it can be 80 for all I care. I am excited about the thunderstorms this week.

Yeah I think this is going to be longer process or step down from the 10-12 day period of warmth that we're about to hit and then from the 10th on we just have to see how that pattern evolves and what if any impact the MJO will have for the remainder of the month.

Right now, I'm not as bullish on February as I was headed into January but perhaps, we've got one or two shots of cold left before Spring is here. I just think down here it's going be a battle to get sustained cold to hold as long as the AO remains positive and the PNA continues to flex. EPO can bring some cold but it won't hold without some help.

[gpsnowman]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Perhaps a warm Super Bowl after all. Either way smoked ribs are on the table. Hopefully we get one more shot at snow. Once March hits it can be 80 for all I care. I am excited about the thunderstorms this week.

Yeah I think this is going to be longer process or step down from the 10-12 day period of warmth that we're about to hit and then from the 10th on we just have to see how that pattern evolves and what if any impact the MJO will have for the remainder of the month.

Right now, I'm not as bullish on February as I was headed into January but perhaps, we've got one or two shots of cold left before Spring is here. I just think down here it's going be a battle to get sustained cold to hold as long as the AO remains positive and the PNA continues to flex. EPO can bring some cold but it won't hold without some help.

We shoot for mid Feb then. Let the tellies work themselves out. I would not mind a warm Super Bowl Sunday with the smell of smoke and beer breath.

[Stratton23]

Im sticking with my gut and say we get a dump of arctic air sometime between the 10-15th of february, if im wrong, ill buy someone a candy bar haha, the battle is on!

[Ntxw]

I'm thinking mid February. There should be some Pacific ridging off the west coast to help drive 500mb heights to lower. Early month was always a long shot because there is troughing off the Pac NW coast. Once we get into P6 and 7 of the MJO things will look better. We may also get unusually cold in early March I think.

[txtwister78]

Perhaps a warm Super Bowl after all. Either way smoked ribs are on the table. Hopefully we get one more shot at snow. Once March hits it can be 80 for all I care. I am excited about the thunderstorms this week.

Yeah I think this is going to be longer process or step down from the 10-12 day period of warmth that we're about to hit and then from the 10th on we just have to see how that pattern evolves and what if any impact the MJO will have for the remainder of the month.

Right now, I'm not as bullish on February as I was headed into January but perhaps, we've got one or two shots of cold left before Spring is here. I just think down here it's going be a battle to get sustained cold to hold as long as the AO remains positive and the PNA continues to flex. EPO can bring some cold but it won't hold without some help.

We shoot for mid Feb then. Let the tellies work themselves out. I would not mind a warm Super Bowl Sunday with the smell of smoke and beer breath.

Ha! Yes, sir BBQ weather.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw arent phases 6/7 still considered unfavorable cold phases though?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw arent phases 6/7 still considered unfavorable cold phases though?

In Feb sometimes they can deliver. '89, '96, '11, '21 are a few examples of the MJO meandering 6/7 and weakening into the COD in cold ENSO. P6 absolutely loads cold in W-Can as we will see. If the MJO weakens then the other teleconnections can help deliver.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Man, remember that big snowstorm models had a few days ago across W TX....going...going...gone. Never bought into that one despite several models advertising it. Just didn't fit the pattern.

Yeah its creeping closer to me. These lows bring our heaviest snows, if positioned correctly. Needs to travel the length of the CO/NM border for us to get the most snow, but these storms bring heavy upslope winds and crush us with snow. Often falls at well over 1" per hour.

[wxman57]

You folks wanting more snow and Arctic are are out of luck. My new work crew of expert masons have significantly reinforced the Canadian and Red River walls as part of my "Make America Warm Again" project. I see nothing too exciting in the latest models. Just normal winter weather.

[Stratton23]

The wall will fall, my arctic cold agent has been secretly posing as an imposter amongst you’re red river wall crew, hes made sure to leave some weaknesses in the wall, it will come down mid february

[Texas Snowman]

You folks wanting more snow and Arctic are are out of luck. My new work crew of expert masons have significantly reinforced the Canadian and Red River walls as part of my "Make America Warm Again" project. I see nothing too exciting in the latest models. Just normal winter weather.

Fake news. I live three miles from the Red River and I can assure you there is no work happening on any kind of wall.

Work on Highway 75? Yes.


Work on a Wxman57 wall? Not a chance!

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Looks like February will be above average. I still hope we can get one more cold shot and a winter event here. Guess the mjo would have to get to the cold phases before anything exciting happens.

[Stratton23]

AO is trending negative on the GEFS and GEPS, even the EPS is trending toward neutral, I think we may get a piece of the cold air in the first week of february, but the real brunt of the arctic air ( if it comes ) may come beyond the 10th, at least what is being shown on the operational GFS/ Euro runs

[TomballEd]

More interested in a low end tornado and hail threat Thursday than I am in what might happen mid-February

[imgur]https://i.ibb.co/NmhWP9R/day3otlk-0830.gif[/imgur]

The link isn't opening for me, but my district blocked me from looking at it, calling it p0rn.