Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

GEFS 18z is bleeding the cold air further south as it fights the se ridge, its not over yet

[txtwister78]

Ensembles (GEFS/GEPS/EPS) for the most part show continued warmth stretching into the long range. Perhaps a brief cool down around the 8th or 9th. Not seeing it right now if you're looking for cold to return anytime soon. Even the folks that some cited on here (BAM weather) have gone pretty quiet as of late but in a post early this morning acknowledged the warmth resisting the - EPO signal (which for now looks to be temporary with signs that may move to more neutral territory in the long range).

In addition, the problem for folks who want more cold is the longer this thaw drags on, the less likely (doesn't mean it can't happen) you're going to get the type of cold needed for a real return to winter/winter precip across more areas of the state. As February moves forward our norms for temps continue to rise and so arctic air hitting in mid January tends to be more impactful than cold in mid to late February relative to our averages.

Yep I'm still confident that we've already seen the coldest temperatures of the year. Any additional cold blasts likely won't be as strong as our last one. For those who love winter weather, I hope you appreciated our January. It was a good month!

Yawn. You put me to sleep.

Ha! Is what it is. A lot of talk about cold returning but MJO and a few of our teleconnections are just not favorable for now. Still some time to watch trends after the 10th or so to see how that evolves.

[Stratton23]

twtwister78 even though i am obviously bullish on cold weather, the first week of february was always look iffy, ive been watching the ensembles and operational runs, they really seem to be more “ bullish “ in the 9th-16/17th time time frame as the teleconnections are at least slightly more favorable in that period, think that will be the last straw, but we have plenty of time to see how that evolves, but the 18z GEFS does fonally get the push of cold air southward on this run

[txtwister78]

GEFS 18z is bleeding the cold air further south as it fights the se ridge, its not over yet

All about consistency going forward. In other words, what does that look like over the next few days/model runs and will it have support from the other ensemble guidance. How quickly the MJO gets out of phase 4/5 will also be key. We're on the clock though regarding winter down here.

[Brent]

Lol not even a below freezing low for the next 7 days here

Though it's gonna be very hard to top January here even if we flip

[Ntxw]

500mb heights continue to look elevated to above normal for most of the month, at least for now from the long range. If there is cold, it will have to be shallow but likely short lived. You're really fighting an uphill battle with the AO/NAO and MJO alongside warmer Pacific air above.

[Stratton23]

The AO has actually been unfavorable in alot of the cold air dumps we have seen this year, the WPO/ EPO combination has been enough to offset the + AO, we will see if its enough again

[Ntxw]

The AO has actually been unfavorable in alot of the cold air dumps we have seen this year, the WPO/ EPO combination has been enough to offset the + AO, we will see if its enough again

This isn't true, it went severely negative to start January, and stayed so until mid January setting up the great period that led up to the gulf coast snow. 500mb heights were well below normal during that time. That was the only real sustained cold period as there wasn't much in December with the +AO. Our cold periods this season have actually correlated pretty well with the AO.

Early December had a little cold, early to mid January was pretty cold. The +AO of late December got us to a top 5 warmest December.



For the record I do think we will get a couple more cold shots but you have to call it what it is, the teleconnections are not favorable for delivering cold. The WPO and EPO are building cold yes but it's not given a pathway south yet.

[Stratton23]

Ah i see lol, i just hope we have a couple of decent cold fronts left, anything is better than 80’s that will be here soon, that kind of weather is just utter misery

[Stratton23]

AO/ NAO are trending negative on all ensemble guidance for the 10-15th time frame, maybe one last gasp before all is set and done

[wxman57]

My MAWA project is complete. The two stealth walls (Canadian border and Red River) are complete. Temps in SE TX will be into the 70s this weekend and near 80 all next week. I am quite confident that the worst of winter is behind us, here in Texas. Above-normal temperatures will prevail for much of the country east of the Rockies over the next two weeks, with only a brief respite Feb 9-12. The increasing warmth of March is fast-approaching. I can feel it!

[snownado]

While no torchy weather is expected, it's nice to have a return to "normal" Texas weather for the winter...

[Portastorm]

My MAWA project is complete. The two stealth walls (Canadian border and Red River) are complete. Temps in SE TX will be into the 70s this weekend and near 80 all next week. I am quite confident that the worst of winter is behind us, here in Texas. Above-normal temperatures will prevail for much of the country east of the Rockies over the next two weeks, with only a brief respite Feb 9-12. The increasing warmth of March is fast-approaching. I can feel it!

It was only a matter of time before your efforts prevailed. Winter cancel?

[Ntxw]

If you're going by MJO precedent (we are in P4 now) then it won't be until late February until the pattern recovers. Have to make it through P6 first then the lag into 7 and COD is where cold relative to averages comes in this kind of ENSO.

Oklahoma may reap benefits from this in March (blizzard season for them.)

[snownado]

Flood Watch has just been issued for most of DFW...

2-3" of rain expected, with isolated totals of 5-7"...

[gpsnowman]

Flood Watch has just been issued for most of DFW...

2-3" of rain expected, with isolated totals of 5-7"...

The totals have gone up. Must be some serious training with the storms tonight into Thursday.

[Gotwood]

Flood Watch has just been issued for most of DFW...

2-3" of rain expected, with isolated totals of 5-7"...

The totals have gone up. Must be some serious training with the storms tonight into Thursday.

Just moved east like always. My area was in the 2-3 range up until this morning now not sure if we will even get an inch.

[txtwister78]

Look at those temps per GFS on Monday. Sunday looking warm also.

[Stratton23]

Disgusting with a capital D

[HockeyTx82]

Flood Watch has just been issued for most of DFW...

2-3" of rain expected, with isolated totals of 5-7"...

Why can't we have this when it's 20° outside.........