Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

That Euro run, my oh my thats a classic setup for big time cold , not just the alaskan ridge , but now with a -NAO signature over greenland, that traps the cold air in place, trough digging over the west central US with a piece of the TPV swinging down to the central US/ canadian border, got se ridging as well, once the MJO gets into phase 7 and beyond, look out folks!

[Harp.1]

That Euro run, my oh my thats a classic setup for big time cold , not just the alaskan ridge , but now with a -NAO signature over greenland, that traps the cold air in place, trough digging over the west central US with a piece of the TPV swinging down to the central US/ canadian border, got se ridging as well, once the MJO gets into phase 7 and beyond, look out folks!

Yeah, I’m starting to see more and more of this kind of chatter. I’m just west of New Orleans and am very content with the 13” of snow at my house we received in that miracle last week.

[Stratton23]

Orangeblood yeah look out! Even though models are still trying to hang up the arctic air, watch out when the MJO moves into 7/8 its game on, and that dam is going to burst!

[Cpv17]

Orangeblood yeah look out! Even though models are still trying to hang up the arctic air, watch out when the MJO moves into 7/8 its game on, and that dam is going to burst!

Hopefully.

[Stratton23]

Definitely liking the trends in the ensembles at least with the teleconnections, NAO goes negative, and good agreement on the AO going negative as well

[gpsnowman]

It would be nice to have a late season three week stretch (mid Feb first week of March) with cold and multiple chances for snow. The last 10 years or so have proven that possible here in DFW.

[orangeblood]

Orangeblood yeah look out! Even though models are still trying to hang up the arctic air, watch out when the MJO moves into 7/8 its game on, and that dam is going to burst!

Hopefully.

McFarland Signature hints now showing up for Euro Ensembles Week 2, ice storm chances starting to increase! Early December 2013 analog

[gpsnowman]

December 2013. Perhaps the craziest sleet storm I've ever seen. Late February 2003 is another.

[Sambucol2024]

Orangeblood yeah look out! Even though models are still trying to hang up the arctic air, watch out when the MJO moves into 7/8 its game on, and that dam is going to burst!

Hopefully.

McFarland Signature hints now showing up for Euro Ensembles Week 2, ice storm chances starting to increase! Early December 2013 analog

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/z500_anom/1738324800/1739469600-RjVWkYYFZLE.png

https://assets.dmagstatic.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/macfarland-500x364.jpg

Would this reach the upper Texas coast? All or most of Texas?

[Gotwood]

Something big is brewing end of week 2 into week 3....this is a classic MJO Phase 7, Arctic cold air build then dam burst setup as it moves into phase 8-1-2 (overwhelming the country). Winter isn't close to being over!!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1738281600/1739383200-tFRfqYZAdl0.png

Not going to get my hopes up for something 300 hours out.

[orangeblood]

Something big is brewing end of week 2 into week 3....this is a classic MJO Phase 7, Arctic cold air build then dam burst setup as it moves into phase 8-1-2 (overwhelming the country). Winter isn't close to being over!!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1738281600/1739383200-tFRfqYZAdl0.png

Not going to get my hopes up for something 300 hours out.

well of course but this is how all of the big events start, at the 300 plus hour range particularly on the Ensemble Mean. It's a strong signal, they don't just "show up" in the 5-7 day period out of nowhere!

[Stratton23]

orangeblood exactly, plus I think this pattern has more merit to it because the teleconnections are actually trending favorable, gonna be interesting to see how this evolves going foward, especially since the polar vortex could possibly full on split in the 2nd week of february, that is something models will most definitely not be able to see

[Quixotic]

I just saw a flock of geese flying North in the Flying V.

Winter is over, onto Spring!

Juncos are still here.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I don't think winter returns here until mjo gets through the warm phases, if it can. Also, the possible pv split is intriguing. Depending on how it sets up.

[Cpv17]

I don't think winter returns here until mjo gets through the warm phases, if it can. Also, the possible pv split is intriguing. Depending on how it sets up.

Where you live, you’ll have plenty more chances for wintry weather.

[Ntxw]

We might have a SSW event mid Feb. That would have AO implications the end of Feb into March if it propagates. Quite intriguing.

[Cpv17]

We might have a SSW event mid Feb. That would have AO implications the end of Feb into March if it propagates. Quite intriguing.

In 2002 it got down to 19°F here in early March. I’ll never forget it.

[Quixotic]

March isn’t a death knell. 2015, 2014, 2010, 2003, 2002. Probably missing something. 1987 had thunder snow and accumulating snows despite temps in the mid 30s. 2015 was the best, IMO. 2003 had the ridiculous area wide 3-5” of sleet.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

We might have a SSW event mid Feb. That would have AO implications the end of Feb into March if it propagates. Quite intriguing.

They are tricky. Problem is once we get into march, barring a very anonymous pattern, it will be difficult to sustain cold imo.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

March isn’t a death knell. 2015, 2014, 2010, 2003, 2002. Probably missing something. 1987 had thunder snow and accumulating snows despite temps in the mid 30s. 2015 was the best, IMO. 2003 had the ridiculous area wide 3-5” of sleet.

March 2015 was the best winter storm I've been in. Started a little fzr, then 1-2 inches sleet, the 8-10 inches snow.