Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Harp.1]

The CMC was consistent with the last event. The ICON as well.

[Ntxw]

Euro, if you extended the CMC.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw love to see barney colors showing up! But that is some very impressive -EPO/ -NAO blocking over the top, that cold air is getting trapped

[Harp.1]

Ntxw love to see barney colors showing up! But that is some very impressive -EPO/ -NAO blocking over the top, that cold air is getting trapped

Trapped where?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 over the central and eastern US , when you have a strong- NAO block, thats gonna to slow down or hault the progression of the cold air eastward, the reasons our january snow storm( or the cold part of it ) was short lived was because we didnt have a -NAO block in place, the NAO was positive then, not this time around

[Ntxw]

That's the helpful sauce, the NAO/AO blocking. The reason the opening days of February isn't working out for cold even though models were showing it and kept delaying because no blocking on the Atlantic side. But it's not a surprise there was no blocking there because the tropical forcing said no. It's easy for cold to slip east into Quebec and out to the Atlantic Ocean.

[Harp.1]

I’ve already had more snow than I could ever have dreamed of, so I’m perfectly happy. But, the weather nerd in me is curious about what could possibly occur in the next few weeks. I expect nothing, but it’s always fun to follow!

[snownado]

Really looking forward to the next several days of gorgeous weather!

[Stratton23]

Ntxw really will be interesting to also see if the polar vortex ends up splitting, if that does happen as its forecast to by a decent amount of model guidance, that could lead to something more significant than just a typical arctic blast

[Cpv17]

Ntxw really will be interesting to also see if the polar vortex ends up splitting, if that does happen as its forecast to by a decent amount of model guidance, that could lead to something more significant than just a typical arctic blast

That’s what I’m interested in as well.

[Cpv17]

Can anyone tell me how the AO and NAO are looking for February? Really interested in these 2 teleconnections right now.

[Stratton23]

Man taking a looking at the northern hemisphere on the 12z GFS, that is a full on disruption/ split of the polar vortex, one lobe goes into europe and the other sets up shop in north america, this is something that ensembles cannot see happening and likely wont be truly reflected in ensembles, but also the globals, its gaining alot of talk from some well respected mets on social media

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 AO and NAO are tanking on the ensembles, seeing the AO drop below -2 as well as the NAO

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 AO and NAO are tanking on the ensembles, seeing the AO drop below -2 as well as the NAO

Hmmm, that’s a good sign. What about the PNA?

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 PNA stays Negative, generally between -1 and -2 on the GEFS/ EPS, teleconnections are definitely looking more favorable

[orangeblood]

One of the EPS Day 10-12 leading analogs is Dec 5-7 2013, Ops are beginning to show hints at Major overrunning frz rn/sleet event



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20131206.html

[Brent]

End of the Tulsa AFD

Beyond this forecast, a stronger Arctic
front could approach the area after next weekend.

[Sambucol2024]

Pow has an interesting take on this.
https://www.facebook.com/share/1B2JfbxR ... tid=wwXIfr

[cajungal]

Pow has an interesting take on this.
https://www.facebook.com/share/1B2JfbxR ... tid=wwXIfr

So I am guessing this doesn’t go as far east as SE Louisiana? 3.3 below average temps wouldn’t be noticeable

[Cpv17]

Pow has an interesting take on this.
https://www.facebook.com/share/1B2JfbxR ... tid=wwXIfr

So I am guessing this doesn’t go as far east as SE Louisiana? 3.3 below average temps wouldn’t be noticeable

It should eventually get cold there as well… but this is still a long ways out. Nothing is set in stone.