Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

not dam bursting yet, but the GFS did make some good changes on its current run, arctic air looks like it starting to win out more, not holding it back as much, looks like a couple of waves of arctic air starting just before valentines and beyond

[txtwister78]

GEFS not all that impressive and we're getting into the range where that needs to change fast if you're looking for colder weather down into Texas next week. Too much pacific air moderating temps further south.

[Cpv17]

GEFS not all that impressive and we're getting into the range where that needs to change fast if you're looking for colder weather down into Texas next week. Too much pacific air moderating temps further south.

Don’t think globals are much use for this pattern down here. Not really paying much attention to them.

[Stratton23]

I would just prepare for a big model bust next week, Euro actually has several punches of arctic air throughout the run

[txtwister78]

GEFS not all that impressive and we're getting into the range where that needs to change fast if you're looking for colder weather down into Texas next week. Too much pacific air moderating temps further south.

Don’t think globals are much use for this pattern down here. Not really paying much attention to them.

Don't think you can disregard ensembles. While high resolution guidance will do a better job at handling the cold progression/timing of frontal boundaries etc, ensembles offer clues for how cold we could get based on all the scenarios (from each member) they combine together for one mean output. The fact that the GEFS is not showing significant cold under 200 hours out is something that shouldn't be ignored.

Definitely not the end all be all but it's not something to toss aside either considering the volatility of the EPO

[Stratton23]

I still havent figured out how to send pictures on here, but the GFS/ Euro runs have a pretty wacky outcome with the polar vortex when looking at the 10mb height feature on weatherbell, the whole lobe shifts to the NA side of the globe, beyond valentines day according to those models, that is also another player that could throw a gigantic wrench into the weather pattern the next several weeks

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing much of significance for TX in the overnight models. Snow and freezing rain confined to Oklahoma. Possibly a light freeze down to Houston by the 20th in the Euro. There will be a big difference in temperatures between Houston and Dallas, as there has been this week. Still, just cold rain for the D-FW area next week. Nothing to get excited about.

[gpsnowman]

I'm still not seeing much of significance for TX in the overnight models. Snow and freezing rain confined to Oklahoma. Possibly a light freeze down to Houston by the 20th in the Euro. There will be a big difference in temperatures between Houston and Dallas, as there has been this week. Still, just cold rain for the D-FW area next week. Nothing to get excited about.

Oh I am excited. Several below normal days in the 40s and 50s coming up with rain chances. Potentially colder if the models are being shy. I love it. It doesn't have to snow in winter to have excitable weather.

[wxman22]

[Wthrfan]

https://i.ibb.co/DHvtCCqy/IMG-0953.png

https://i.ibb.co/kg7VJQkT/IMG-0220.png

Hoping it’s more snow than sleet or frz rain for OKC.

[Tammie]

https://i.ibb.co/DHvtCCqy/IMG-0953.png

https://i.ibb.co/kg7VJQkT/IMG-0220.png

If the models are still underestimating the cold air, all counties south of the Red River could be in play.

[Lastcall88]

We have a huge 120 team tourney next thurs, fri, sat. I don't mind it getting into the 50s for you cold guys, but please say 40s with 20mph north winds will not be the norm all weekend.....

[Stratton23]

Been without power for 2 hours now, and its incredibly warm inside here, now yall really know why i absolutely hate the heat, because of ridiculous things like this

[Ntxw]

Been without power for 2 hours now, and its incredibly warm inside here, now yall really know why i absolutely hate the heat, because of ridiculous things like this

Not a lot of press but heat is the #1 killer in the US annually regarding weather. Stay cool and keep the place well ventilated if you can.

[wxman22]

The CMC finally got rid of the dry slotting it was showing up here for the last few runs.I noticed that models are showing decent convection with wednesdays system. There may be thunder sleet for some areas.

[Stratton23]

Looks like their could be a couple of surges of arctic air, GFS/CMC show this

[cajungal]

While I am completely happy with the foot of snow we got in January, I do wish we could get rid of these 80’s here in SE Louisiana for February

[orangeblood]

Disastrous Wednesday morning commute on the CMC, heavy frz rain with temps in Mid 20s across most of DFW. This model has proven to handle these types of setups better than the other globals in the past. Looking at temps across central plains along with the strong cold advection, GFS and Euro seem way overdone on temp profiles, like usual

Hopefully the FW NWS begin to mention this scenario in their upcoming discussions because this setup has the makings of a major forecast bust if they just regurgitate GFS/Euro model output

[txtwister78]

12z ICON, GFS/GEFS and Euro all continue to show glancing brief shots of cold but nothing like the CMC which remains the outlier. I doubt NWS offices will buy into that right now considering its track record for overdoing the amount of cold with these patterns. Just too many examples of that occurring to take it seriously when you have other guidance, in particular ensembles showing something that's considerably "warmer" compared to that model

[Stratton23]

But the GFS/ Euro also have an exceptionally poor record of handling cold air masses, so its a pick youre poison when it comes to the models , we will see, still think a model bust is going to happen