Texas Spring 2025

[snownado]

It does look like everyone should finally get a steady/persistent rain tomorrow morning, albeit sub-severe with only embedded thunder at best.

Summer can't get here fast enough...

[Gotwood]

It does look like everyone should finally get a steady/persistent rain tomorrow morning, albeit sub-severe with only embedded thunder at best.

Summer can't get here fast enough...

At this rate I’ll believe it when I see it wouldn’t be surprised if everything shifted north.

[snownado]

It does look like everyone should finally get a steady/persistent rain tomorrow morning, albeit sub-severe with only embedded thunder at best.

Summer can't get here fast enough...

At this rate I’ll believe it when I see it wouldn’t be surprised if everything shifted north.

Widespread rain is going to happen without question tomorrow morning, as we'll finally be under more favorable jet dynamics aloft (thus better forcing) with the trough ejecting eastward.

It's just that we'll have much less instability to work with, so it should be primarily of the stratiform variety.

All in all, still an upsetting event locally for DFW from a both a weather weenie & outdooor planning standpoint (considering how much hype there was about thunderstorm activity leading up to this and what was originally a warm forecast) and frankly one I'm beyond ready to put behind us.

[gpsnowman]

It does look like everyone should finally get a steady/persistent rain tomorrow morning, albeit sub-severe with only embedded thunder at best.

Summer can't get here fast enough...

At this rate I’ll believe it when I see it wouldn’t be surprised if everything shifted north.

Widespread rain is going to happen without question tomorrow morning, as we'll finally be under more favorable jet dynamics aloft (thus better forcing) with the trough ejecting eastward.

It's just that we'll have much less instability to work with, so it should be primarily of the stratiform variety.

All in all, still an upsetting event locally for DFW from a both a weather weenie & outdooor planning standpoint (considering how much hype there was about thunderstorm activity leading up to this and what was originally a warm forecast) and frankly one I'm beyond ready to put behind this.

Next week looks dry and pleasant. Comfortable April temps with nothing too hot.

[rwfromkansas]

Another morning with a canceled severe thunderstorm watch. Lol.

Well, at least it APPEARS rain is likely tomorrow.

But, this event should really put some doubt in those severe analogs people love to post.

It really screwed most of Texas.

[cstrunk]

This afternoon has a higher risk of supercell development in NE TX than previous days (hence the moderate risk extending into TX). Fairfield to Canton and points northeast from about 3 pm to 10 pm look to be under the gun. I don't know what the failure modes have been from previous days, but so far today there is still substantial cloud cover in the area. But there is a break currently in the aforementioned area along the front. And that's where storms should form this afternoon.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Another morning with a canceled severe thunderstorm watch. Lol.

Well, at least it APPEARS rain is likely tomorrow.

But, this event should really put some doubt in those severe analogs people love to post.

It really screwed most of Texas.

It's been "the rain/storms will come tomorrow" for the past 4 days

[TomballEd]

Meso models showing a broken line of 'squeegee' showers and maybe a storm or two along the front tomorrow along and S of I-10. Houston and San Antonio won't get much more than half an inch, maybe less. A half an inch per week in spring is not how to build up soil moisture before the summer heat arrives. Early in the season to have a 76F morning low temperature. You'd think temps and dewpoints from May and June would mean rain.

OTOH, a little warmth beats the DFW area all day in the 50s weather. Although low in the 40s weather is coming for us down here for early Monday morning with highs only around 60F

[snownado]

The streamers are finally getting a little *OOMPH* to them, and just got my first crack of thunder for this entire event.

[txtwister78]

HRRR starting to pick up on the possibility of some storm development in the early evening hours across the 35 corridor from Austin into SA metro as mentioned yesterday. Definitely need to watch this trend as very large hail and perhaps even a spin up Tornado could be possible should this occur.

SPC did add San Antonio into the large hail risk threat outline (2 inch plus) in their last update.

[Edwards Limestone]

Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south-central into northeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041826Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with
a threat of large hail and strong to severe gusts. Some tornado
potential could also evolve with time.

DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon, a slow-moving cold front is
draped from northeast into south-central TX, with another weak cold
front/wind shift intersecting the primary front west of San Antonio
and extending southward toward Laredo. Elevated convection is
increasing to the cool side of the boundary across north-central TX,
with increasing showers noted across the warm sector noted across
east-central TX. Storm coverage is expected to increase with time on
either side of the front, as ascent gradually increases in response
to an approaching mid/upper-level trough.

Strong instability (with MLCAPE near/above 3000 J/kg along/east of
the front and similar MUCAPE magnitudes to the immediate cool side)
and around 50 kt of effective shear are providing a favorable
environment for organized convection, and maturing convection this
afternoon could evolve into a few supercells and/or organized
clusters, with a threat of large to very large hail and severe wind
gusts. The KGRK and KHGX VWPs depict a rather strong (35-45 kt)
low-level jet, and effective SRH will be sufficient to support some
tornado threat with any sustained warm-sector supercells.

Watch issuance will become increasingly possible this afternoon if
observational trends support development of multiple organized
storms across the region.

..Dean/Thompson.. 04/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29699754 29929810 30269839 30649841 32309656 32499606
31999562 31549538 31179554 30629606 30199654 29839732
29699754

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0395.html

[jasons2k]

Headed back from 58 degrees in Plano. This should be fun…

[mmmmsnouts]

Another morning with a canceled severe thunderstorm watch. Lol.

Well, at least it APPEARS rain is likely tomorrow.

But, this event should really put some doubt in those severe analogs people love to post.

It really screwed most of Texas.

It won’t. They only post this stuff on social media for clout and attention. They don’t really care if it mega busts, they got what they wanted.

[wxman22]

Multiple supercells moving into the ArkLaTex

[HockeyTx82]

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings in the Panhandle, while there is a Tornado Watch, including tornado warnings in East Texas.

Only in Texas, stay safe everyone!

https://www.weather.gov/

[wxman22]

OUN finally pulled the trigger for Wichita Falls and added a 100% chance of rain/snow Saturday night and a 30% chance of all snow Sunday morning... Lets see if the 0z models continue the good trends seen today in the models.

This setup would be a major winter storm for North Texas and Oklahoma if it were happening a month or two ago.

[wxman22]

There were apparently 4 earthquakes today in west Texas in a span of 6 hours. I knew I wasn't going crazy this morning when I felt the ground shake slightly for a couple of seconds lol.

[jasons2k]

Made it home safely. South of Corsicana, the pitch black sky turned turquoise and white in front of my as Apple Maps flashed "Severe Thunderstorm Warning Ahead." I was pretty concerned...

White knuckled with flashers for awhile, but I punched through with no hail, thank God. Phew! I saw a low base and rotation on the backside. Pretty sure I saw a couple chasers on the frontage road, too.

[JDawg512]

Watching the skies in hopes of initiation, likely right over the city if anything develops. Seeing thickening clouds and darkening underside just to the west of the city.

[txtwister78]

Few hi-res models still want to develop storms over the Austin/SA region between 7-8 PM tonight before the main event out west. Looks like a sea breeze boundary moving into SA metro. Need to see how this interacts with frontal boundary as this could be area to watch for development.