Texas Spring 2025

[rwfromkansas]

Tomorrow could be a decent severe day for DFW.

But, I won’t get excited until tomorrow because too often we have something go wrong.

[wxman22]

Mesoscale Discussion 0604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Areas affected...Permian Basin into Texas South Plains...western
North Texas...parts of southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 291810Z - 292015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development appears likely in the next 2-3
hours. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the primary
concerns. Tornadoes will be possible particularly in western North
Texas. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern exists across the southern
Plains this afternoon. A synoptic cold front has pushed through much
of the High Plains and extends northeastward through
southwest/central Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is also evident near
the Red River in Oklahoma from an earlier complex of thunderstorms.
Dewpoints of mid/upper 60s F have reach into western North Texas
near the intersection of these boundaries, with a weak moisture
gradient to the southwest until a more obvious dryline near Fort
Stockton.

Though capping still remains, cumulus towers have begun to develop
in the Rolling Plains per day cloud phase imagery. Additionally,
convection has also developed in the Davis Mountains and is moving
northeast. With continued heating, storm coverage should increase in
the next 2-3 hours along and south of the cold front/outflow
boundary. Model guidance has been rather consistent in the preferred
zone of initiation being within the Rolling Plains first. All severe
hazards would be possible given the expected supercellular storm
mode. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the most likely
hazards. The tornado threat is less certain. With the cold front
continuing to shift slowly southward, there is potential for storms
to become undercut. Low-level shear will also not be particularly
strong until the low-level jet increase several hours from now. That
being said, there is a mesoscale zone in western North Texas near
the cold front/outflow boundary intersection where easterly surface
winds and greater moisture will promote a greater tornado threat.

..Wendt/Hart.. 04/29/2025

[txtwister78]

Tomorrow could be a decent severe day for DFW.

But, I won’t get excited until tomorrow because too often we have something go wrong.

All about where the frontal boundary is positioned tomorrow and when storms activate. Could be a close call along either side of 35 up there, but I'm sure a lot of folks will be rooting for things to "go right" in terms of missing on the severe weather part and instead ending up with some decent rain as oppossed to the alternative.

[snownado]

Tomorrow could be a decent severe day for DFW.

But, I won’t get excited until tomorrow because too often we have something go wrong.

CAMs are all over the place in terms of scenarios, so I'm not exactly feeling confident.

EDIT: It's never easy for us.

[DallasAg]

Flash Flood Watches continue to inch south. Northern DFW Metro counties now included through Thurs morning.

[Stratton23]

Im glad the state has been receiving very beneficial rains over the past week , however flooding is going to potentially start becoming more of a bigger concern as we move into may, the grounds especially in north texas are pretty saturated, and if the euro is correct with the idea of a slow moving storm system in the middle of the first week of may, their could be some flooding concerns starting to arise, as txtwister78 said, we need the rain, but not too much of a good thing lol

[Iceresistance]

For some reason, I can't embed videos, so here's a link for the last night lightning that I filmed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaW3GNDvJ3w

[wxman22]

The moderate risk for flooding seems warranted. As the CAMs are showing training thunderstorms all night here. In addition to the severe weather I’m concerned about flooding as the grounds are already saturated. The HRRR and most of the CAMs have been locked in for the last day or two on this scenario.

[Edwards Limestone]

Almost half the state of Texas continues to be in severe drought (D2) conditions that are predominantly long term impacts (hydrology, ecology) and now we're worried about flooding?

SAT International has gotten less than 6 inches of rain this year which is still just below annual average to this point. Yes it has been raining more than it has been but those of us in southern half of the state need far more. We are not even close to out of the woods down here with this drought.

In Texas, you get two choices, flooding or drought. I will pick the former all day long.

[snownado]

Almost half the state of Texas continues to be in severe drought (D2) conditions that are predominantly long term impacts (hydrology, ecology) and now we're worried about flooding?

SAT International has gotten less than 6 inches of rain this year which is still just below annual average to this point. Yes it has been raining more than it has been but those of us in southern half of the state need far more. We are not even close to out of the woods down here with this drought.

In Texas, you get two choices, flooding or drought. I will pick the former all day long.

The quagmire, per usual, is that the areas experiencing drought conditions are largely missing out on the flooding rains.

[TomballEd]

Drought, in terms of agricultural loss, wildfires eventually catches up with most floods. The 2011 Bastrop fires may not have cost as much money or killed as many as the Harvey flooding, but they destroyed thousands of homes and killed people. The Euro is optimistic on substantial rains S of the I-10 corridor. So that's good.

[wxman22]

[wxman22]

Several reports of significant hail already with the ongoing supercells.

[txtwister78]

Almost half the state of Texas continues to be in severe drought (D2) conditions that are predominantly long term impacts (hydrology, ecology) and now we're worried about flooding?

SAT International has gotten less than 6 inches of rain this year which is still just below annual average to this point. Yes it has been raining more than it has been but those of us in southern half of the state need far more. We are not even close to out of the woods down here with this drought.

In Texas, you get two choices, flooding or drought. I will pick the former all day long.

The quagmire, per usual, is that the areas experiencing drought conditions are largely missing out on the flooding rains.

Sometimes the hardest part in a pattern like this is waiting your turn and I still believe our turn further south is coming. So far this has been pretty well advertised in that this was always going to be a gradual process to shift activity from north to south but models, including a few hi-res are still locked in for later in the week (beginning Thursday and again on Friday) with the help of the stalled frontal boundary. Pattern remains active next week so a lot to like in the short and medium range from where I sit.

If we do get anything tomorrow as mentioned earlier it will be a bonus, but it could come with a heavy price tag again with some of these hail parameters in place.

[wxman22]

Tornado warning issued on the lead supercell near Seymour.

[WacoWx]

Incredible rotation w that storm.

[HockeyTx82]

That storm looks like it's gone full beast mode, any chance it's going to die out as it travels this way?

[wxman22]

This supercell means business, the local mets are getting very concerned live on air now. I'm really concerned this may head up 277 into WF. Hoping the mesocyclone remains south.

[wxman22]

High end Severe thunderstorm warning issued for WF. Tornado warning south. Very large mesocyclone.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
710 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Western Archer County in northern Texas...
Southern Wichita County in northern Texas...
Southern Wilbarger County in northern Texas...
Baylor County in northern Texas...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 710 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles southeast of Grayback to 7 miles east of
Millers Creek Reservoir, moving east at 30 mph.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR LAKE DIVERSION AND DUNDEE.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Western Wichita Falls, Burkburnett, Seymour, Iowa Park, Electra,
Holliday, Megargel, Red Springs, Lake Diversion, Dundee, Westover,
Bomarton, Lake Kemp, Mabelle, Mankins, Lake Kickapoo, Grayback, and
Pleasant Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the warned area.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9947 3390 9947 3405 9913 3409 9853
3339 9871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 268DEG 26KT 3389 9911 3340 9928

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
721 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Archer County in northern Texas...
Northeastern Baylor County in northern Texas...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 720 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mabelle, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Dundee, Mankins, Mabelle, Lake Kickapoo, Lake Diversion, and
eastern Lake Kemp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior
room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you
are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 9920 3367 9925 3381 9917 3383 9906
3384 9884 3383 9873 3355 9871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 263DEG 23KT 3366 9914

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

[rwfromkansas]

With 80 mph and tennis balls…probably one of the few times I would blow the sirens for severe. I usually get mad that DFW blows them for whatever.

That storm is INTENSE.