Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[chaser1]

I added Univ. of Arizona's forecast of 15/7/3 to the list. They did well last year.

Seems like very sound numbers. I'd be especially interested in their forecast methodology and thoughts that led to their forecast. Is there any link to that available?

[cycloneye]

I added Univ. of Arizona's forecast of 15/7/3 to the list. They did well last year.

Seems like very sound numbers. I'd be especially interested in their forecast methodology and thoughts that led to their forecast. Is there any link to that available?

Here it is.

https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/f ... recast.pdf

[ncforecaster89]

WxProbe’s updated seasonal forecast:

FORECAST BY THE NUMBERS:

Named Storms………………….14-18 (16)
Hurricanes………………………….7-9 (8)
Major Hurricanes………………..3-5 (4)
ACE…………………………………110-160 (135)

These figures equate to a fairly normal season based on the past thirty-year (1995-2024) climatological average. That said, please keep in mind that this seasonal projection will be further refined by the middle of June…when I issue my definitive forecast that’s used for verification purposes.

Most recent 30 year (1995-2024) average: 15.9/7.8/3.6 (134.2).

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1920203372889526501

[cycloneye]

WxProbe’s updated seasonal forecast:

FORECAST BY THE NUMBERS:

Named Storms………………….14-18 (16)
Hurricanes………………………….7-9 (8)
Major Hurricanes………………..3-5 (4)
ACE…………………………………110-160 (135)

These figures equate to a fairly normal season based on the past thirty-year (1995-2024) climatological average. That said, please keep in mind that this seasonal projection will be further refined by the middle of June…when I issue my definitive forecast that’s used for verification purposes.

Most recent 30 year (1995-2024) average: 15.9/7.8/3.6 (134.2).

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1920203372889526501

Added to the list.

[cycloneye]

WxProbe’s updated seasonal forecast:

FORECAST BY THE NUMBERS:

Named Storms………………….14-18 (16)
Hurricanes………………………….7-9 (8)
Major Hurricanes………………..3-5 (4)
ACE…………………………………110-160 (135)

These figures equate to a fairly normal season based on the past thirty-year (1995-2024) climatological average. That said, please keep in mind that this seasonal projection will be further refined by the middle of June…when I issue my definitive forecast that’s used for verification purposes.

Most recent 30 year (1995-2024) average: 15.9/7.8/3.6 (134.2).

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1920203372889526501

Added to the list.

I am CycloforumsPR at the X chat.

[cycloneye]

On May 22, NOAA will be up.

 https://x.com/NOAAComms/status/1922307404697325934

[cycloneye]

Bumping the reminder about the NOAA forecast on thursday.

[cycloneye]

UKMET has 16/9/4 as their forecast for the season.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2025

[cycloneye]

After that post from them, I had to do this=Took out Accuweather from the list. Kudos to Levi Cowan with his post.

Below is the post:

@TropicalTidbits 39m
I'm just going to point out that there is no quality scientific analysis being presented here.

1. Kantar is a market research company specializing in advertising, branding, and public opinion, without expertise in meteorological analysis or tropical cyclone datasets.

2. The provided "report," unlike peer-reviewed research papers, obfuscates the analysis and provides no data or comprehensive process with which to replicate and vet the claimed results.

3. The report states: "the forecast time steps analyzed were hours 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 84 and 108 from the issued time." But @NHC_Atlantic issues forecasts at lead times of 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours, making it unclear exactly how this analysis was done. Was interpolation of some data to a different set of lead times performed? Was mean absolute error or some other metric used? We don't know, because the report is opaque.

4. Anyone in this field knows that a single season of hurricane statistics is not robust. The sample size is not large enough to yield statistically rigorous results, given the variability between individual storms and years. This is why multi-year samples are typically necessary to show statistically significant performance gaps between different types of forecasts.

If you think I'm overtly taking @NHC_Atlantic 's and @NOAA 's side here, yes, I am. American publicly funded hurricane research, computer modeling, and expertise are unrivaled worldwide. And, by the way,
@Accuweather wouldn't be able to issue their own forecasts without any of those things.

The full Kantar report: https://accuweather.com/wp-content/uplo ... pptx-1.pdf


 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1925320719732547804

[ouragans]

BTW, here's Cuba's INSMET Forecast

15 TS
8 H

 https://x.com/InsmetC/status/1921114153986470373

[jconsor]

268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook:
They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record. Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers.

If you look back at their track record, their May forecasts were considerably too high (bullish) in 2021 (ACE forecast 179), 2022 (175) and 2024 (218).
On the other hand, their May 2017 forecast (ACE of 110) strongly underestimated activity. They were one of the few seasonal forecasting agencies to catch onto slightly above normal activity (based on 1950-2020 normals) in 2018 and 2019.

https://268weather.wordpress.com/

[wxman57]

You can watch the NOAA outlook here. I'm expecting predicted numbers to drop over the summer. Just about an average season in terms of numbers. Weaker Bermuda high by August could allow more to recurve earlier. Less of a Gulf threat, but watch out southeast U.S..

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/noaa-hurricane-season-forecast-2025/

[cycloneye]

[psyclone]

NOAA gives a 60% chance of above normal, 30% chance of normal and a 10% chance of below normal. Sounds reasonable. With no nino we're likely to settle somewhat above normal...especially with warm water close in

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Bryan Norcross analize the NOAA outlook.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news ... on-outlook

[chaser1]

268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook:
They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record. Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers.

If you look back at their track record, their May forecasts were considerably too high (bullish) in 2021 (ACE forecast 179), 2022 (175) and 2024 (218).
On the other hand, their May 2017 forecast (ACE of 110) strongly underestimated activity. They were one of the few seasonal forecasting agencies to catch onto slightly above normal activity (based on 1950-2020 normals) in 2018 and 2019.

https://268weather.wordpress.com/

Wow? Those ARE some pretty bullish numbers! Hopefully their prediction will prove in line with their tendency to predict to high for other recent years that you outlined.

[chaser1]

You can watch the NOAA outlook here. I'm expecting predicted numbers to drop over the summer. Just about an average season in terms of numbers. Weaker Bermuda high by August could allow more to recurve earlier. Less of a Gulf threat, but watch out southeast U.S..

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/noaa-hurricane-season-forecast-2025/

I'm in the same camp as you. I read the entire NOAA report and found that they too were less than confident regarding a few different factors. The most interesting forecast factor being their forecast of the African Monsoon being displaced northward around peak season. Their reasoning for this being a positive factor for development would seem to be for strong tropical waves coming off Africa at a reasonable latitude (not being suppressed too far to the south). At the same time though, NOAA acknowledged that should the African Monsoon shift "too far" north (as they referenced DID occur during 2024), then tropical waves would possibly exit off the coast at a more northerly latitude and over significantly cooler SST water. That could well lead to a more suppressed year and/or with abundant East Atlantic recurvature storm tracks.

In spite of a forecast Nino 3.4 region neutral ENSO, I still wonder about the very warm SST's that still remains over the far Eastern EPAC. It was not referenced in the report but If that were to persist, then downwind UL conditions over the West and Central Caribbean could be less than conducive for development.

Lastly NOAA prediction of a strong but northerly displaced West Atlantic Ridge in conjunction with very warm Caribbean SST's may play a factor for W. Atlantic development to occur in the Eastern and Northern Caribbean. Hopefully too close to land to strengthen and severely impact the Greater Antilles... but with a more northerly shifted Atlantic/Bermuda high, possibly result in a much more northwestern component of storm track. That would seem to decrease the broader season risk to Central America or the West GOM, but enhance risk to the Bahamas, East Coast Florida to the Cape Hatteras, and Bermuda.

It'll be interesting to see if both CSU and NOAA remain bullish on the upcoming season, or which one may be first to flinch if favorable conditions fail to materialize as we approach peak season.

[cycloneye]

TSR increased it's numbers from the early April 14/7/3 to now 16/8/4.

Excerpt from the forecast.

The forecast has increased since early April due to a warming of tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea
surface temperature anomalies following a decrease earlier in the year.


https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2025.pdf

[Hurricane2022]

when CSU will release their next forecast? I need to update my bet in the 2025 poll....