Texas Spring 2025

[Brent]

Bears watching.

https://i.ibb.co/1GvcwMd6/image-full4.png

Yeah if we get another Monday outbreak

Both the historic Moore tornadoes were on a Monday

[wxman22]

Severe weather risk posted from Kansas to the Red River counties. Expect changes or expansion of these outlook areas as confidence increases per SPC. Based on the current models I wouldn’t be surprised to see an expansion south into the DFW area also. Looks like a potentially high end dryline setup.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An active period of severe weather remains likely through the
weekend and into early next week for portions of the central CONUS.
A weakening upper trough is forecast to migrate across the Northeast
late this weekend as a second upper wave begins to amplify over the
western states. This upper regime will favor surface pressure falls
across the High Plains that will promote south/southeasterly return
flow into the southern/central Plains through early next week.
Severe thunderstorm chances will increase as preceding upper
disturbances and the primary upper wave eject into the Plains over
the warm sector. While severe weather chances are anticipated most
days through the extended period, confidence in more focused,
synoptically-driven corridors is currently greatest on D5/Sunday and
D6/Monday across the southern Plains.

...D5/Sunday to D6/Monday...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the southern/central
Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains
beginning D4/Saturday through D7/Monday. This will foster moisture
return into northern TX, OK, and southern KS as a warm front lifts
north. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests dewpoints ranging from
the mid 60s to low 70s are likely by Sunday afternoon across the
southern High Plains to the east of a sharpening dryline. Recent
GFS/GEFS solutions have come into better alignment with ECMWF/EPS
runs that depict a leading impulse within the subtropical jet
overspreading the southern High Plains late Sunday afternoon.
Enhanced westerly low- to mid-level flow coupled with ascent
associated with the upper feature should promote eastward mixing of
the dryline with attendant chances for thunderstorm development
within a buoyant and strongly sheared environment.

The ejection of the primary trough axis on D6/Monday should result
in more widespread 50+ knot mid-level flow overspreading much of
OK/KS. The eastward migration of the surface low and trailing
dryline through the day should provide adequate forcing for ascent
for thunderstorm development within a buoyant and strongly sheared
environment, which should promote an organized, and potentially more
widespread, severe threat.

More specific mesoscale details for both days remain unclear at this
range, but the general alignment of global deterministic/ensemble
guidance regarding the overall synoptic regime and convective
environment, combined with a consistent QPF signal on both days,
suggests predictability is high enough to introduce risk
probabilities.

[wxman22]

Posted this morning from Ken Johnson, one of the local chief mets in WF.

[Ntxw]

Goes east imagery showing cloud cover streaming from the EPAC. This may put a lid in some areas from reach forecasted highs, I would think? It's warmer in DFW now than it is in Austin.

[Ntxw]

Cloud cover and higher dewpoints have kept temperatures from soaring today. Still hot, but not as high they were looking to be.

[rwfromkansas]

My home station literally peaked at 99.9. Not joking. It's down to 97.5, so I think we may avoid the first 100 IMBY.

That is crazy how close it got.

[Cpv17]

My home station literally peaked at 99.9. Not joking. It's down to 97.5, so I think we may avoid the first 100 IMBY.

That is crazy how close it got.

Weird it peaked that early in the day.

[rwfromkansas]

My home station literally peaked at 99.9. Not joking. It's down to 97.5, so I think we may avoid the first 100 IMBY.

That is crazy how close it got.

Weird it peaked that early in the day.

Yeah, usually it's at 3-4 or so, so kind of strange. It is going back up again a little, so hopefully it stays below 100.

[Cpv17]

My home station literally peaked at 99.9. Not joking. It's down to 97.5, so I think we may avoid the first 100 IMBY.

That is crazy how close it got.

Weird it peaked that early in the day.

Yeah, usually it's at 3-4 or so, so kind of strange. It is going back up again a little, so hopefully it stays below 100.

That’s not an issue for me. Only in the low 90’s here. Think being only one hour away from the Gulf and being away from a bunch of concrete helps me out.

[Brent]

Broke the record from 1911 here

[Stratton23]

Some signs that the heat ridge may try to retrogade back to the west and setup over the western US, that may take the worst of the heat away from texas, noaa still calls for above average precipitation across the state, i just dont buy it, im not really optimistic we are going to be seeing any decent rain chances even going into the longer range

[DallasAg]

Cloud cover and higher dewpoints have kept temperatures from soaring today. Still hot, but not as high they were looking to be.

https://i.imgur.com/ZLPSFM8.png

DFW even managed to avoid the record high for the date. Topped out at 94. Once the wind kicked back around to the south (from SW) and the dewpoints climbed it pretty much halted the temps.

[Edwards Limestone]

SAT just hit 101, heat index 105

[South Texas Storms]

Cloud cover and higher dewpoints have kept temperatures from soaring today. Still hot, but not as high they were looking to be.

https://i.imgur.com/ZLPSFM8.png

DFW even managed to avoid the record high for the date. Topped out at 94. Once the wind kicked back around to the south (from SW) and the dewpoints climbed it pretty much halted the temps.

Congrats to us for only reaching the mid 90s to lower 100s today. In mid May...typically one of the wettest times of the year. This pattern sucks.

[Pas_Bon]

Cloud cover and higher dewpoints have kept temperatures from soaring today. Still hot, but not as high they were looking to be.

https://i.imgur.com/ZLPSFM8.png

DFW even managed to avoid the record high for the date. Topped out at 94. Once the wind kicked back around to the south (from SW) and the dewpoints climbed it pretty much halted the temps.

Congrats to us for only reaching the mid 90s to lower 100s today. In mid May...typically one of the wettest times of the year. This pattern sucks.

I made confetti, but it vaporized and turned to ash.

[cstrunk]

The 95/96F forecast high for Longview busted. 89F was the max.

[rwfromkansas]

Temps never bust low in Texas so I will take it.

[gpsnowman]

The 95/96F forecast high for Longview busted. 89F was the max.

Love seeing the low busts around Texas. Won't last long and I'll see y'all in October.

[txtwister78]

Some signs that the heat ridge may try to retrogade back to the west and setup over the western US, that may take the worst of the heat away from texas, noaa still calls for above average precipitation across the state, i just dont buy it, im not really optimistic we are going to be seeing any decent rain chances even going into the longer range

CPC's outlook is based on a '33-40%" chance of precip being slightly above normal so it's not exactly a slam dunk however as mentioned previously, models do show some isolated storms chances beginning Friday but especially on Saturday into early next week from the southern HC to north Texas.

Granted those chances won't be widespread, but because it will be tough to pinpoint where storms develop each day, a broad outline isn't all that surprising.

In other words, whoever gets lucky that specific area could get some above average rainfall especially with a slow moving supercell along the dryline.

[Brent]

6am temperature is 76 degrees. Good grief May all time record is 77 apparently

But yes I'm seeing the same thing about below normal temps next week which the average high is still 79 right now