2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

18z GFS starts showing signs of development in the NW caribbean at day 7, and that piece of energy is in relation to the CAG, so that could be a legitimate pathway to cyclogenisis , and its in the 7-8 day range not 16 lol, nothing from the CMC/ Euro yet, but starting to at least get my interest somewhat

[StPeteMike]

18z GFS starts showing signs of development in the NW caribbean at day 7, and that piece of energy is in relation to the CAG, so that could be a legitimate pathway to cyclogenisis , and its in the 7-8 day range not 16 lol, nothing from the CMC/ Euro yet, but starting to at least get my interest somewhat

Honestly, I just think the GFS is picking up increased rain chances for Central America and nothing more. Until the other models start jumping on board, I’m going to join the majority and say the GFS is doing its typical early season nonsense.

Not saying you’re wrong, just not putting much weight on the GFS. But like others have said, GFS will eventually be right when it throws something at the wall every model run lol

[Stratton23]

StPekeMike maybe, maybe not, the MJO is about to cross over into the atlantic, the GFS is picking up on the CAG becoming active, sure it could be doing its usual fantasy storm stuff, but ai think in this case it may be seeing the CAG becoming active, MJO moves into phase 8 , i guess we will see, im not putting alot of stock in it, more so that its just caught my interest somewhat

[OuterBanker]

Music has Notorious Big.
We have the Notorious 18Z (GFS of course).

Instead of various models I thought it would be fun to compare only one run each day, the 18z GFS.

Lets face it, it's always the craziest run (i.e.)

May 31 956mb into NOLA on the 12th.
June 1 992mb into Tx/La border 13th
June 2 972mb NOLA again 14th
June 4 953mb Naples to Hatteras 18th
June 5 984 hanging around BOC 21st
June 6 969mb NOLA to Brownsville. 20th

Todays earlier runs I thought it would finally wake up.
But no, it was the strangest yet.

[Stratton23]

12z CMC starting to trend towards the GFS, no development yet, but also shows the monsoon trough setting up over the boc/ western caribbean, some energy from the pacific tries to get pulled into the BOC

[Stormlover70]

12z CMC starting to trend towards the GFS, no development yet, but also shows the monsoon trough setting up over the boc/ western caribbean, some energy from the pacific tries to get pulled into the BOC

nothing likely but at least something to watch

[Stratton23]

Stormlover70 agreed, its not likely, but the idea of energy getting pulled up into the BOC from the EPAC isnt a crazy idea on the GFS/ CMC, kind of reminds of tropical storm cristobal, energy transferred over from the pacific into the BOC

[Kingarabian]

All the models are showing 4 different disturbances out of this CAG. 2 of those 4 are 91E and 92E. The 3rd one has a good chance ending up in the EPAC in about 5 days. The 4th disturbance will be 50/50 either in the EPAC or BOC.

[mixedDanilo.E]

The ridge is too strong to allow anything from CAG to lift northward into the caribbean and gulf for right now, causing all activity to be confined into the Epac. We gotta see if any troughs or fronts end up moving into texas which would then erode the ridge from the west and slowly allow moisture from the Caribbean to lift north.

[Stratton23]

For now, if something were to develop in the NW caribbean, it would likely gett pushed into mexico, that being said looking at the 500 mb height on the models, their does appear to be a window where their is a weakness in the ridge as it rebuilds back out towards the western US, that should at least be enough for tropical moisture to get pulled into the state next week

[Stratton23]

CMC is starting to show possible weak low pressure in the BOC as a weakness over texas draws energy from the pacific into the BOC in days 9-10, not saying the GFS is going to be right, but it just maybe on to something this time as at least one of the other global models is starting to sniff something out as well

[Jr0d]

The GFS will probably end up being right with something developing there in the next 3 months..just development will keep getting pushed back.

This is the spot where the GFS has a ridiculously high false signal percentage...much higher than it verifying.

At this point I would feel safe betting on no development in June.

[Kingarabian]

Will come down to steering. The GFS idea that something forming from this CAG isn't crazy. The strong hurricane making land fall on one of the gulf states in June is though.

[Stratton23]

for what its worth the 12z ICON now shows a system from the EPAC getting pulled into the boc, disorganized low but energy is sitting off the northern mexican coast at day 7, getting pulled due north by a shortwave trough over texas, GFS may not be totally bonker on its idea

[DorkyMcDorkface]

for what its worth the 12z ICON now shows a system from the EPAC getting pulled into the boc, disorganized low but energy is sitting off the northern mexican coast at day 7, getting pulled due north by a shortwave trough over texas, GFS may not be totally bonker on its idea

It looks like the CMC depicts a similar situation. EPS kinda hinting at it as well. I could see something like this happening, at least more so than the nonsense the GFS was generating just last week.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS in line with the CMC and ICON. Stronger than both.

[Stratton23]

Yeah kind of interesting, the ICON in particular is a model to watch as its actually surprisingly done pretty well with seeing tropical development the last couple of years, im interested to see how this plays out. 1. We have a frontal boundary stalling out for the entire week starting on monday and beyond. That does look to weaken ridging over the gulf, so i wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see energy try to get into the new caribbean or BOC, plus their is a lot of healthy convection down in the SW caribbean thats been persistent the last couple days, in the general area the GFS has been pinching off the energy into a closed low

[Stratton23]

The CMC 00z shows development in the BOC with a weak tropical storm, similar to what the GFS shows, interesting, gets shoved into mexico though due to ridging, not that it matters though 9-10 days out, just thought its interesting to see another global model showing a similar scenario

[cycloneye]

Making fun of the GFS ghost hurricane that would have made landfall at Tampa on 6/10/25 at 00z.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1932201178575622461

[TomballEd]

Music has Notorious Big.
We have the Notorious 18Z (GFS of course).

Instead of various models I thought it would be fun to compare only one run each day, the 18z GFS.

Lets face it, it's always the craziest run (i.e.)

May 31 956mb into NOLA on the 12th.
June 1 992mb into Tx/La border 13th
June 2 972mb NOLA again 14th
June 4 953mb Naples to Hatteras 18th
June 5 984 hanging around BOC 21st
June 6 969mb NOLA to Brownsville. 20th

Todays earlier runs I thought it would finally wake up.
But no, it was the strangest yet.

I hope people in New Orleans are taking the Thursday/Saturday hurricanes seriously.

Speaking of seriously, I am sure the GFS and its ensembles will pick up on the first TC of the year. Only because it develops everything. Euro/ensembles will seem late to the party, the bar is set higher.

When I see more than 10% of the Euro and Canadian ensembles showing something I'm not going to get hyped for the GFS or its ensembles. GEPS and EPS rainfall is mostly on the Pacific side of C.A. Even GEFS shows that.