2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

Well the global hazards tropical outlook still has a zone for development in the southern gulf, still wouldnt rule out something sneaking into the bay of campache and developing, in my opinion models are way over doing gulf ridging/ ridging over the US, im thinking their will still be a general weakness over texas, every time models have shown some big heat ridge setting up, it hasn’t verified and i have no reason to believe somethiny couldnt get into the southern gulf

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1932681107645894745

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has a decent area of vorticity n the far western Caribbean in less than 5 days.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a decent area of vorticity n the far western Caribbean in less than 5 days.

And in BOC in less than 10 days.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z GFS has a decent area of vorticity n the far western Caribbean in less than 5 days.

Hints of this in the Euro too

[Stratton23]

GFS has a weakness in the ridge, allowing for whatever is in the BOC TO move into south texas at day 9, looks like a weak TD/ TS on that run

[Teban54]

12z GFS. Looks like ridging is weak enough to pull the CAG into BoC and develop there.

CMC and ICON have the same system develop in EPAC instead. If we do "split the difference" at face value (not saying that's the most likely outcome), it would go over land and not develop anywhere.

[Stratton23]

Euro joins the GFS with development in the southern gulf, weak TD going into north central mexico, but their looks to be a cut off low moving out of arizona thats trying to erode the ridging over texas, worth watching to see if any weakness develops over texas for any sort of system to potentially be drawn more poleward instead of straight into mexico

[BobHarlem]

Euro 12z and GFS aligning on something for once (until about hour 180 when GFS starts heading up closer to Texas where Euro dumps into closer to Tampico)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1932866380979966145

[Kingarabian]

All the models are showing 4 different disturbances out of this CAG. 2 of those 4 are 91E and 92E. The 3rd one has a good chance ending up in the EPAC in about 5 days. The 4th disturbance will be 50/50 either in the EPAC or BOC.

3rd disturbance is now 93E. Today's runs show that the 4th disturbance will be in the BOC. Still a long way out though.

[sasha_B]

This evening's 18z GFS deterministic still shows the vorticity east of Central America in about 4 days (it showed up at +102h on the 12z and appears at +96h on the 18z). Doesn't necessarily amount to a nameable storm if you read the model output verbatim but it is a more realistic signal than any of the phantom hurricanes that it was churning out last week & the week before. There's...moderate GEFS/Euro ensemble support for it, too, but the other deterministic models still show any disturbance in that timeframe developing in the EPac if at all.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS starts development in 72 hours in the. Western Caribbean.

[Stratton23]

CMC 00z joins the GFS with development in the southern gulf at day 6-7, steering patterns at this time are very susceptible to changing so wont get focused on the models going into mexico, but very interesting to see another Global mode show gulf development

[kevin]

06z GFS with TC formation around +72/+78 hrs in the WCar, 1000mb landfall at the Honduras/Nicaragua border at +102 hrs. Followed by a 989mb Yucatan landfall at +144hrs.

1st landfall


2nd landfall

[GCANE]

Run-to-run GFS is showing the Sub-tropical ridge digging in quickly and farther to the west.
Watching if GFS will drop development in the next few runs.

[Stratton23]

I dont think so, the ridge breaks down in the gulf, trough over the central us/ texas sets the edge of the ridge, system has a lane to turn north once it crosses the yucatan

[Stratton23]

The 12z ICON joins the GFS/ CMC with development in the southern gulf, has a weak a TD paralleling the mexican coast but stays off shore, starts to feel influence of a trough over texas to its north

[Stratton23]

Will be watching the 500 mb height pattern very carefully over the next 7-10 days once a disturbance does find its way into the gulf, GFS has been all over the place with orientation of the ridges / shortwaves troughs that create a weakness to follow a more NW. The CMC has steering currents collapse on shore of south texas as the system gets trapped between two ridges

[GCANE]

Looks like the STR will be dug in for quite so time