EPAC: ERICK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ljmac75]

He lives another day.
 https://x.com/icyclone/status/1936150711777345632

[MGC]

Sounds like Eric snuck up on Josh. Never turn your back on the sea or a hurricane......MGC

[ljmac75]

Extreme wind damage in the community of Minitán, look at those trees.

 https://x.com/moises_salazarm/status/1936478589127643150



 https://x.com/cmminformativo/status/1936470618787963205

[cycloneye]

Josh missed the eye not by a lot.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1936170670259572989

[cycloneye]

Looks bad there.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1936579603486679237

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1936594204924547339

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1936621280477741136

[cycloneye]

Here is all the data that Josh recollected from his chase of Erick. Missed the eye by 3-4 miles. For the members who can't see the X post, here it is.


Here are my pressure data from #Hurricane #ERICK in Oaxaca #Mexico. This location (San Jose Estancia Grande) got raked by the right-front quadrant of the eyewall but just missed the eye—I'm estimating by probably 3-4 miles.

The device—a Kestrel Meter 5500—was at ground level underneath a concrete gazebo near the town center, and it was calibrated for sea-level pressure using a reference elevation of 236 ft (72 m), derived by geographer James Hyde. The device was fairly protected, so I'm not sure what caused the obvious data irregularities from ~6:11 to 6:52 am. (I know the readings during that time are off because a second device I was carrying with me during the storm showed the pressure breaking 1000 mb during this time.)

My pressure data along with my ground observations suggest ERICK had a small, violent, tightly-wound core. My video footage shows only a gentle breeze at 5:18 am increasing to a full-on hurricane by 5:24 am—perhaps the fastest onset of hurricane winds I've seen. (The rapid pressure drop starting around 5 am hinted that something very nasty was on the way.) The pressure drop was especially fast around the time of the most destructive winds—up to 8 mb in 5 minutes (5:32 to 5:37 am) and over 3 mb in 1 minute (5:38 to 5:39 am).

I assigned arrival and exit times for the eyewall based on my footage. The arrival time was very distinct—you can see in the footage exactly when it happens—whereas the exit from the backside was a little more gradual. But bottom line: the hurricane only lasted about an hour at this location. All of the destruction happened in this short time.

I usually only calculate gradient when I sample a hurricane's center, so I'm hesitant to go through this exercise for ERICK. That said, a quick review of the data suggest gradients over a whopping 10 mb/n mi (assuming a storm forward speed of 8 knots/9 mph/15 km/h), which would put ERICK up there with PATRICIA and beyond greats like MARIA and MICHAEL. It's really too bad I didn't penetrate ERICK's eye, because the gradient in that final mile of inner eyewall must have been nuts.

But, hey, I gave this chase my all and I consider it a success



 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1937852188543336516

[ljmac75]

That's an ultra-steep gradient. Is that expected for a peripheral measurement?

[cycloneye]

A emotional message from Josh about his Erick chase.

https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone