2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/jrou9Pu.png

Behold....the "cool MDR" that has been widely chattered about that will stunt the hurricane season.

Oh wait a sec.

The climatology period of this plot is awful. It'd be difficult to get a cool MDR with it

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/jrou9Pu.png

Behold....the "cool MDR" that has been widely chattered about that will stunt the hurricane season.

Oh wait a sec.

The climatology period of this plot is awful. It'd be difficult to get a cool MDR with it

My current favorite for SST plots is Alex Boreham's website (cyclonicwx). Even there, both the Coral Reef Watch and OISST show pretty warm SSTAs:

(All images are GIF loops between CRW and OISST)



It's only when global means are subtracted that the MDR returns to mostly neutral, but still a far cry from the negative "SSTA - Global Mean" that we saw earlier.



There's also been very significant anomalous warming of MDR and the Canary Current lately. 15-day change:

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/jrou9Pu.png

Behold....the "cool MDR" that has been widely chattered about that will stunt the hurricane season.

Oh wait a sec.

The climatology period of this plot is awful. It'd be difficult to get a cool MDR with it

My current favorite for SST plots is Alex Boreham's website (cyclonicwx). Even there, both the Coral Reef Watch and OISST show pretty warm SSTAs:

(All images are GIF loops between CRW and OISST)

https://i.postimg.cc/Wbm78CyD/ezgif-61b01930d5c7cb.gif

It's only when global means are subtracted that the MDR returns to mostly neutral, but still a far cry from the negative "SSTA - Global Mean" that we saw earlier.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgw4dSss/ezgif-6275dee9c42b29.gif

There's also been very significant anomalous warming of MDR and the Canary Current lately. 15-day change:

https://i.postimg.cc/JnBNk2Jz/ezgif-651fac06493f9c.gif

I happen to be very familiar with that site . Thanks for the shoutout! CRW is pretty good once you give it a normal climatology. Impressive warming in the MDR for sure this month. We'll have to see if it can weaken that strong TUTT at all. That's the one thing that has really given me pause about this season. The Atlantic warming probably helps, but a lot of it is from outside the basin

[weeniepatrol]

Issuing Egg On Face Watch valid for wxtwitter through 30 November…

[weeniepatrol]

My current favorite for SST plots is Alex Boreham's website (cyclonicwx).

Hah, you are replying to Alex Boreham

I agree!!! Fantastic site!

[cycloneye]

My current favorite for SST plots is Alex Boreham's website (cyclonicwx).

Hah, you are replying to Alex Boreham

I agree!!! Fantastic site!

I also recommend the site as it has many tools even more than tropical tidbits.

[Woofde]

Issuing Egg On Face Watch valid for wxtwitter through 30 November…

It is certainly warmed up a lot out there, even with the Global Tropics subtracted. The CFS says it's a short lived burst of warming, but we'll see if thats the case.