EPAC: GIL - Hurricane - Discussion
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
MW has a large spiral band. Not suited for much intensification with its current structure.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
TXPZ22 KNES 010032
TCSENP
A. 07E (GIL)
B. 31/2330Z
C. 14.0N
D. 117.8W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE
MET EQUALS 1.5 AND THE PT EQUALS 2.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
24-HOUR TREND. 6 HOUR AVERAGE EQUALS 3.3 AND SO THE FT IS BASED ON THE
6 HOUR AVERAGE DT WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE FT
TO WITHIN 1.0 OF THE MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LINER
TCSENP
A. 07E (GIL)
B. 31/2330Z
C. 14.0N
D. 117.8W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE
MET EQUALS 1.5 AND THE PT EQUALS 2.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
24-HOUR TREND. 6 HOUR AVERAGE EQUALS 3.3 AND SO THE FT IS BASED ON THE
6 HOUR AVERAGE DT WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE FT
TO WITHIN 1.0 OF THE MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LINER
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025
Gil is gradually becoming better organized, with increased evidence
of banding features over the eastern and southern portions of the
circulation. However, the low-level center of the storm has been
partially exposed, possibly due to drier air being entrained into
the core. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the
eastern and southern semicircles, but a bit restricted to the
northwest. The current advisory intensity is raised to 50 kt based
on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. In general, the objective
intensity estimates are somewhat lower than the subjective values.
The storm is continuing on a west-northwestward heading, but at a
faster forward speed of around 13 kt. A fairly strong
mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to prevail to the north of Gil
for the next few days, which should maintain the west-northwest
track. Most of the track guidance models indicate additional
acceleration over the next 48 hours, and so does the official
forecast. This is also in good agreement with the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction. By late in the forecast period, the
system will likely turn to a more westward track following the
low-level flow.
Further strengthening is likely while the tropical cyclone moves
over sufficiently warm waters. Vertical wind shear is predicted to
decrease to very low values during the next couple of days and the
atmospheric environment should also remain moist during this time.
However, SSTs along the path of Gil are likely to decrease below 25
degrees C in about 48 hours. This should somewhat counteract the
other favorable environmental conditions. The marginal ocean
temperatures are likely one of the reasons that the intensity
guidance does not show a lot of strengthening. The official
forecast is on the high end of the model guidance envelope, as in
the previous advisory package.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 14.2N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 17.9N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.4N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 23.9N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025
Gil is gradually becoming better organized, with increased evidence
of banding features over the eastern and southern portions of the
circulation. However, the low-level center of the storm has been
partially exposed, possibly due to drier air being entrained into
the core. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the
eastern and southern semicircles, but a bit restricted to the
northwest. The current advisory intensity is raised to 50 kt based
on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. In general, the objective
intensity estimates are somewhat lower than the subjective values.
The storm is continuing on a west-northwestward heading, but at a
faster forward speed of around 13 kt. A fairly strong
mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to prevail to the north of Gil
for the next few days, which should maintain the west-northwest
track. Most of the track guidance models indicate additional
acceleration over the next 48 hours, and so does the official
forecast. This is also in good agreement with the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction. By late in the forecast period, the
system will likely turn to a more westward track following the
low-level flow.
Further strengthening is likely while the tropical cyclone moves
over sufficiently warm waters. Vertical wind shear is predicted to
decrease to very low values during the next couple of days and the
atmospheric environment should also remain moist during this time.
However, SSTs along the path of Gil are likely to decrease below 25
degrees C in about 48 hours. This should somewhat counteract the
other favorable environmental conditions. The marginal ocean
temperatures are likely one of the reasons that the intensity
guidance does not show a lot of strengthening. The official
forecast is on the high end of the model guidance envelope, as in
the previous advisory package.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 14.2N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 17.9N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.4N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 23.9N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025
Geostationary satellite images indicate that Gil continues to become
better organized underneath the southern portion of a central dense
overcast that contains a fairly large area of -70 to -80 degree C
cloud tops. Gil is also displaying banding features that wrap most
of the way around the cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates are a consensus 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Objective
numbers from UW-CIMSS are a bit lower. Given continued improvement
in organization over the past few hours, the initial intensity has
been set to 55 kt, and this might be a tad conservative. ASCAT
passes from 0437 and 0527 UTC were helpful in analyzing the wind
field, and the data indicate that Gil's radius of maximum winds
(RMW) is still about 50 n mi.
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300/14 kt. A fairly
strong mid-tropospheric ridge will continue to prevail to the north
of Gil for the next few days, which should maintain the
west-northwestward track, with additional acceleration expected over
the next 36 h. The official forecast is very near the previous one
and lies between the faster HCCA and the slower TVCE consensus
aids. By late in the forecast period, the system will likely turn
to a more westward track following the low-level flow.
Gil should strengthen steadily over the next 12 to 24 h as the
vertical wind shear decreases to the 0-5 kt range. The chance of
rapid intensification is not very high since the RMW is currently 50
n mi, and the sea-surface temperatures that Gil is forecast to
traverse are forecast to decrease quickly, crossing the 26C isotherm
in about 24 h. Beyond 24 h, weakening is expected due to decreasing
SSTs. In about 60 h, the west-southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase along Gil's path, and this should cause Gil to
lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 3 days, as
shown by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite solutions. The NHC
intensity forecast is toward the high end of the intensity guidance
during the first 36 h and down the middle of the guidance envelope
thereafter.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 14.8N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.8N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 17.3N 125.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 18.7N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 21.2N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 22.1N 138.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/0600Z 23.0N 143.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 23.9N 148.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025
Geostationary satellite images indicate that Gil continues to become
better organized underneath the southern portion of a central dense
overcast that contains a fairly large area of -70 to -80 degree C
cloud tops. Gil is also displaying banding features that wrap most
of the way around the cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates are a consensus 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Objective
numbers from UW-CIMSS are a bit lower. Given continued improvement
in organization over the past few hours, the initial intensity has
been set to 55 kt, and this might be a tad conservative. ASCAT
passes from 0437 and 0527 UTC were helpful in analyzing the wind
field, and the data indicate that Gil's radius of maximum winds
(RMW) is still about 50 n mi.
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300/14 kt. A fairly
strong mid-tropospheric ridge will continue to prevail to the north
of Gil for the next few days, which should maintain the
west-northwestward track, with additional acceleration expected over
the next 36 h. The official forecast is very near the previous one
and lies between the faster HCCA and the slower TVCE consensus
aids. By late in the forecast period, the system will likely turn
to a more westward track following the low-level flow.
Gil should strengthen steadily over the next 12 to 24 h as the
vertical wind shear decreases to the 0-5 kt range. The chance of
rapid intensification is not very high since the RMW is currently 50
n mi, and the sea-surface temperatures that Gil is forecast to
traverse are forecast to decrease quickly, crossing the 26C isotherm
in about 24 h. Beyond 24 h, weakening is expected due to decreasing
SSTs. In about 60 h, the west-southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase along Gil's path, and this should cause Gil to
lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 3 days, as
shown by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite solutions. The NHC
intensity forecast is toward the high end of the intensity guidance
during the first 36 h and down the middle of the guidance envelope
thereafter.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 14.8N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.8N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 17.3N 125.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 18.7N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 21.2N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 22.1N 138.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/0600Z 23.0N 143.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 23.9N 148.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Hagen
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Deep convection in the storm continues to pulse, though it is mostly
concentrated in the southern and eastern quadrants. An AMSR2 pass
from 0927 UTC showed a large curved band wrapping around much of the
circulation. Subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB both
gave Gil a T3.5/55 kt. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for
this cycle based on these estimates. An ASCAT pass over the storm
is expected later today which should help update the wind radii
estimates.
Gil is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt along the southern
side of a subtropical ridge to its north. This general motion
should continue for the next few days. By the end of the forecast
period, the weakened storm should turn more westward in the
low-level flow. Minor adjustments have been made to the latest
track forecast which lies slightly south of the previous prediction.
Gil only has a short window of about 12 h to strengthen.
Thereafter, the storm is expected to cross over cooler sea surface
temperatures. By day 2, the vertical wind shear is expected to
increase accompanied by falling mid-level humidities. These factors
will gradually weaken the cyclone, which is now expected to become
post-tropical by 60 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast still
expects Gil to strengthen into a hurricane later today, however this
prediction lies on the high end of the model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.1N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 20.3N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1200Z 22.1N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Deep convection in the storm continues to pulse, though it is mostly
concentrated in the southern and eastern quadrants. An AMSR2 pass
from 0927 UTC showed a large curved band wrapping around much of the
circulation. Subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB both
gave Gil a T3.5/55 kt. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for
this cycle based on these estimates. An ASCAT pass over the storm
is expected later today which should help update the wind radii
estimates.
Gil is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt along the southern
side of a subtropical ridge to its north. This general motion
should continue for the next few days. By the end of the forecast
period, the weakened storm should turn more westward in the
low-level flow. Minor adjustments have been made to the latest
track forecast which lies slightly south of the previous prediction.
Gil only has a short window of about 12 h to strengthen.
Thereafter, the storm is expected to cross over cooler sea surface
temperatures. By day 2, the vertical wind shear is expected to
increase accompanied by falling mid-level humidities. These factors
will gradually weaken the cyclone, which is now expected to become
post-tropical by 60 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast still
expects Gil to strengthen into a hurricane later today, however this
prediction lies on the high end of the model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.1N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 20.3N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1200Z 22.1N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Going downhill from now.
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Gil has slightly strengthened over the past few hours. A
scatterometer pass from 1710 UTC showed an area of near 50 kt
vectors in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. More recent
geostationary satellite data shows fragmented convection, with a
curved band wrapping around the southern semicircle. The imagery
suggests Gil is experiencing a dry air intrusion wrapping around the
storm's core. Based on the ASCAT data (accounting for instrument
undersampling) and a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates
the initial intensity is increased slightly to 60 kt.
The initial motion is 290/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged. Gil should continue a west-northwestward motion
along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next few
days. As the storm weakens, a turn to the west is forecast around
day 4. The NHC track prediction is essentially unchanged from the
previous cycle's forecast.
Gil is currently crossing a cooling gradient of the sea surface
temperatures and nearing the 26 degree Celsius isotherm. Therefore,
the storm's chances for any significant strengthening are quickly
diminishing. Beyond 12 hours, global models predict increasing
shear and a dry and stable airmass will steadily weaken the storm
for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest official
intensity forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Gil is
still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of
weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 15.9N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.9N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.8N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 21.6N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 22.3N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 23.2N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 23.8N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Gil has slightly strengthened over the past few hours. A
scatterometer pass from 1710 UTC showed an area of near 50 kt
vectors in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. More recent
geostationary satellite data shows fragmented convection, with a
curved band wrapping around the southern semicircle. The imagery
suggests Gil is experiencing a dry air intrusion wrapping around the
storm's core. Based on the ASCAT data (accounting for instrument
undersampling) and a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates
the initial intensity is increased slightly to 60 kt.
The initial motion is 290/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged. Gil should continue a west-northwestward motion
along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next few
days. As the storm weakens, a turn to the west is forecast around
day 4. The NHC track prediction is essentially unchanged from the
previous cycle's forecast.
Gil is currently crossing a cooling gradient of the sea surface
temperatures and nearing the 26 degree Celsius isotherm. Therefore,
the storm's chances for any significant strengthening are quickly
diminishing. Beyond 12 hours, global models predict increasing
shear and a dry and stable airmass will steadily weaken the storm
for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest official
intensity forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Gil is
still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of
weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 15.9N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.9N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.8N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 21.6N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 22.3N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 23.2N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 23.8N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Current structure is not suited for further intensification.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hurricane.
EP, 07, 2025080200, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1243W, 65, 991, HU
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StormWeather
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Hurricane.EP, 07, 2025080200, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1243W, 65, 991, HU
I was about to post that!
You beat me to it!
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Just your average cyclone tracker
Cyclones experienced;
Debby 24’
Cyclones experienced;
Debby 24’
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane Gil Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Gil appears to have rid itself of the intrusion of dry air it had
been dealing with earlier in the day. The center is now embedded
within a Central Dense Overcast, and as a result, subjective
satellite estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB.
Several objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are at that level or
higher, so Gil is therefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.
Gil is moving faster toward the west-northwest, now 295/17 kt.
Strong mid-level ridging is expected to persist to the north of the
hurricane, which should cause Gil to continue moving quickly toward
the west-northwest through much of the weekend. A slower forward
motion with a turn toward the west is forecast by Monday as the
weakening cyclone is steered by lower-level flow. The new NHC
track forecast is just a touch south of the previous prediction,
leaning toward the HCCA and AI models.
Gil only has a small window for continued strengthening since
cooler sea surface temperatures lie ahead. The NHC intensity
forecast allows for a bit more strengthening through 12 hours, but
then fast weakening is expected thereafter due to the cold waters.
In fact, model-simulated satellite images indicate Gil will likely
lose its deep convection in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast
shows it becoming post-tropical at that time. Because of Gil's
fast motion, the decrease in its winds are likely to lag the loss
of convection, and the 45-kt forecast intensity at 48 hours is
higher than is typical for when an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone
becomes post-tropical. Gil is expected to open up into a trough by
day 5, which is supported by most of the global model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 16.5N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Gil appears to have rid itself of the intrusion of dry air it had
been dealing with earlier in the day. The center is now embedded
within a Central Dense Overcast, and as a result, subjective
satellite estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB.
Several objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are at that level or
higher, so Gil is therefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.
Gil is moving faster toward the west-northwest, now 295/17 kt.
Strong mid-level ridging is expected to persist to the north of the
hurricane, which should cause Gil to continue moving quickly toward
the west-northwest through much of the weekend. A slower forward
motion with a turn toward the west is forecast by Monday as the
weakening cyclone is steered by lower-level flow. The new NHC
track forecast is just a touch south of the previous prediction,
leaning toward the HCCA and AI models.
Gil only has a small window for continued strengthening since
cooler sea surface temperatures lie ahead. The NHC intensity
forecast allows for a bit more strengthening through 12 hours, but
then fast weakening is expected thereafter due to the cold waters.
In fact, model-simulated satellite images indicate Gil will likely
lose its deep convection in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast
shows it becoming post-tropical at that time. Because of Gil's
fast motion, the decrease in its winds are likely to lag the loss
of convection, and the 45-kt forecast intensity at 48 hours is
higher than is typical for when an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone
becomes post-tropical. Gil is expected to open up into a trough by
day 5, which is supported by most of the global model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 16.5N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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StormWeather
- Tropical Storm
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:Current structure is not suited for further intensification.
So much for this
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Just your average cyclone tracker
Cyclones experienced;
Debby 24’
Cyclones experienced;
Debby 24’
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Hurricane - Discussion
Eyewall building on IR. Still dealing with a bunch of dry air intrusion.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: GIL - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane Gil Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Gil has likely reached its peak intensity. Satellite imagery shows
convection in the northwestern quadrant has mostly eroded, likely
due to dry air entrainment and the system now moving over marginal
sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C. However, the cyclone
still displays impressive banding features wrapping around its
southern and eastern sides. Subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain steady at 4.0/65 kt, consistent
with objective satellite estimates ranging from 50 to 70 kt. Based
on these data, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt.
The initial motion is estimated at 300/17 kt, steered by a strong
mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to
continue into Sunday, followed by a gradual turn toward the west as
the cyclone weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the
low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and remains close to the consensus aids.
Gil is expected to begin weakening through the day Saturday as it
continues moving over progressively cooler waters and encounters
increasingly dry and stable mid-level air. These unfavorable
conditions should lead to a gradual erosion of the cyclone’s
convective structure. Simulated satellite imagery from global models
suggests that Gil will lose its deep convection and become
post-tropical by Sunday, or in about 36 hours. The system is then
forecast to gradually spin down and dissipate by day 5, in line with
the majority of the global model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 17.4N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.9N 132.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1800Z 22.5N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0600Z 22.9N 142.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z 23.5N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Gil has likely reached its peak intensity. Satellite imagery shows
convection in the northwestern quadrant has mostly eroded, likely
due to dry air entrainment and the system now moving over marginal
sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C. However, the cyclone
still displays impressive banding features wrapping around its
southern and eastern sides. Subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain steady at 4.0/65 kt, consistent
with objective satellite estimates ranging from 50 to 70 kt. Based
on these data, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt.
The initial motion is estimated at 300/17 kt, steered by a strong
mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to
continue into Sunday, followed by a gradual turn toward the west as
the cyclone weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the
low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and remains close to the consensus aids.
Gil is expected to begin weakening through the day Saturday as it
continues moving over progressively cooler waters and encounters
increasingly dry and stable mid-level air. These unfavorable
conditions should lead to a gradual erosion of the cyclone’s
convective structure. Simulated satellite imagery from global models
suggests that Gil will lose its deep convection and become
post-tropical by Sunday, or in about 36 hours. The system is then
forecast to gradually spin down and dissipate by day 5, in line with
the majority of the global model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 17.4N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.9N 132.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1800Z 22.5N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0600Z 22.9N 142.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z 23.5N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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