ATL: DEXTER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 95, 2025080300, , BEST, 0, 328N, 746W, 30, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 170, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, SPAWNINVEST, al722025 to al952025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952025.dat

[OuterBanker]

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs to the NE Sunday. High pressure will build
in through the weekend with a few low pressure waves expected to
traverse an offshore boundary through early next week.

Local NWS discussion

Yes, I think the 18z GFS is overly aggressive. But both the CMC and ICON somewhat agree on a closer to coast scenario on the second low which should exit further south than the first. GFS 12Z did have the second low OTS like the first. Obviously, the GFS is seeing the high exiting building and sending the second low west before heading north. In either case it would not be good for the Outer Banks. We already have small craft warnings till Tuesday caused by the fetch of the front. Minor ocean over wash is occurring now and waves are not expected to subside most of this week. A second low so soon after the first could cause more extensive damage.
(today was wonderful, cooler drier air (air 75 water 82).

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

1. Western Atlantic (AL95):
A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary
about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for this system to become a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while it moves
east-northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of North
Carolina. After Monday, environmental conditions become less
conducive for development. For additional information, including
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[BobHarlem]

95L looks like it might be getting a td/name at this rate (if it doesn't suddenly shread out before it happens) 12z Icon thinks it is already. Southwest tail is where the GFS/Icon think 95l's followup will originate.

So much junk going here outside of that too, (N. Gulf, and the area ne of hispaniola)

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a depression or maybe a tropical storm later today. Got to gain a little more convection and detach a little more but won't take much.

[BobHarlem]

ASCAT makes it look like we on our way to a TD at the very least.

[BobHarlem]

The vort chart also it's almost completely detached from the front now. (Also the post-95L wake potential development shows here pretty well now east of Jacksonville)

[TomballEd]

Obviously still tied to the front and the center is elongated but this could go sub-tropical storm at any time depending who is on the shift at NHC.

Will never amount to much, will be a low end storm and GFS weakens it quickly in a couple of days, but GFS suggests a future Dexter may have a sister Erin, which would also be weak but would have East Coast impacts

[cycloneye]

Western Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of the North Carolina coast. While satellite wind data show that
the low is now producing gale-force winds, the system remains
attached to a frontal boundary. However, environmental conditions
are conducive for this system to acquire additional tropical
characteristics, and a tropical storm is likely to form by Monday
well east of the North Carolina coast. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[TomballEd]

Western Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of the North Carolina coast. While satellite wind data show that
the low is now producing gale-force winds, the system remains
attached to a frontal boundary. However, environmental conditions
are conducive for this system to acquire additional tropical
characteristics, and a tropical storm is likely to form by Monday
well east of the North Carolina coast. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/vK7oy1E.png

That escalated quickly. Its not really tropical but has a center with storms displaced a bit E of it, it could be STS Dexter at any time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Western Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of the North Carolina coast. While satellite wind data show that
the low is now producing gale-force winds, the system remains
attached to a frontal boundary. However, environmental conditions
are conducive for this system to acquire additional tropical
characteristics, and a tropical storm is likely to form by Monday
well east of the North Carolina coast. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/vK7oy1E.png

That escalated quickly. Its not really tropical but has a center with storms displaced a bit E of it, it could be STS Dexter at any time.

Not seeing much evidence in that language to suggest it'll be a subtropical storm when named.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'd say it's Dexter by 11pm. Even since a couple of hours ago it looks less attached to the front. It's probably a TS right now

[cycloneye]

Best Track has 35kt, so it may go strait to TS Dexter.

AL, 95, 2025080318, , BEST, 0, 337N, 710W, 35, 1009, LO

[Hurricaneman]

Best Track has 35kt, so it may go strait to TS Dexter.

AL, 95, 2025080318, , BEST, 0, 337N, 710W, 35, 1009, LO

Yep and I think this peaks at 50 mph tomorrow before getting stretched out

[Hurricaneman]

I'd say it's Dexter by 11pm. Even since a couple of hours ago it looks less attached to the front. It's probably a TS right now

I’d say 5pm but it’s up to the NHC

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Might be a mid tier STS/TS already.

[Buck]

Let’s get this show on the road.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting. The ne to sw outside banding from Dexter and the sw to ne flow from the front is visible from here. Beautiful blue skies 75 air 80 H2O 20 kt winds. Chamber of Commerce day.

Well, maybe not perfect. No swimming and 8 footers.

[MGC]

Getting close to being named. Still looks to be attached to the front though.....MGC